The New York Yankees led the American League Wild Card race by five games over Seattle as of the Major League Baseball All-Star Break. They could very well finish the season 10 games better than both the Mariners and the winner of the AL Central Division, and will still have to win a one-game playoff just to earn the right to play the best team in the American League, who will likely be from their own division.
I’m not one to make excuses for the Yankees. As a Minnesota Twins fan, I despise the Yankees more than most, and I’m a huge fan of the one-game playoff. But there’s nothing fair about a team’s postseason chances coming down to one game when that team has played a tougher schedule to a better record than all but one team in the league. It’s time for MLB to do away with divisions and go back to a division-less pennant race.
While Rob Manfred was repeatedly putting his foot in his mouth prior to the MLB All-Star Game, blaming the Los Angeles Angels and Mike Trout for not marketing Mike Trout, and calling for a discussion on ending defensive shifts, only the most interesting thing happening in baseball, he failed to address the most pressing issue facing the game. The one-game Wild Card could be played between the second- and fourth-ranked teams in the American League while the sixth-ranked team in the league gets a pass to the Divisional round simply for playing in a historically weak division. And that sixth-ranked team won’t even play the league’s best team.
Back in 1969, when East and West divisions were adopted by Major League Baseball, there were no Wild Card teams in the playoff format. And when just one team from both the American League and National League were awarded a postseason berth as a Wild Card for the first time in 1995 (the 1994 postseason was cancelled due to a player strike), there weren’t immediate issues.
But now that there are two Wild Card teams from each league reaching the postseason, either those teams need to play a three-game Wild Card series, or the league needs a good, old-fashioned pennant race. I’m for both.
I would recommend shortening the season to 154 games and adding a three-game Wild Card Playoff series to be played between the fourth- and fifth-ranked teams in each league, regardless of division standings. There is no need for a team to play the same four teams 19 times every year. I’d be fine with MLB divisions remaining simply for travel and rivalry reasons, but 17 games against division rivals is still probably too many. Commissioner Manfred should shorten the regular season to the original 154-game length while adding at least four and up to six lucrative playoff games to the schedule.
Since the All-Star Game no longer determines which league has home field advantage in the World Series, a good, old-fashioned pennant race is the most reasonable and fair way to determine who plays who in the playoffs. The top three seeds in each league would benefit from up to five days off entering the playoffs while the two Wild Card teams are decided, and each league’s top seed would play the fourth-best team instead of the second-best team that happened to lose its division despite winning more games than other division champions.
So before Manfred even considers changing rules to the game regarding defensive shifts and pace of play, he should make sure the league’s best teams are rewarded for being the league’s best teams. Even if the Yankees were to win the Wild Card Game, if the playoffs began today, they’d meet the Red Sox in the Divisional Series instead of the ALCS. And if 2004 taught us anything, it’s that baseball’s best rivalry should be decided in the ALCS. Most importantly though, the league’s best playoff team should play the league’s worst playoff team in the divisional round, and that’s not the case as the MLB postseason currently stands.
The Major League Baseball (MLB) Trade Deadline is July 31, and the weeks leading up to it give fans of every team at least one reason for hope regardless of the standings. Even fans of the last-place Baltimore Orioles have reason for hope at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline, despite the seemingly silly salary of Chris Davis, whom the Orioles owe $92 million over the next four years, and the depreciated value of both Zach Britton and Brad Brach. I wrote that they should have been sellers at the Trade Deadline last season, but last season’s failures could still end up successes of seasons to come. Here’s every fan’s reason for hope at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline.
Reason for hope: Plenty of affordable bullpen arms available
The Red Sox are in a good place at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline, but every team’s bullpen could be deeper come August, September and October. The Red Sox have the fifth-best bullpen based on FanGraph’s version of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), so adding a veteran reliever like Zach Britton to open a sixth or seventh inning instead of relying on 29-year-old Heath Hembree might give Boston’s bullpen the boost it needs to challenge the Yankees’ MLB-best bullpen.
Boston also has some room to improve at second base if Dustin Pedroia does indeed miss the rest of the season due to a troublesome knee. The Red Sox have been linked to Whit Merrifield, who would give them a long-term insurance plan at the position if Pedroia continues to struggle with injuries. Merrifield is cheap (for now), arbitration eligible for the first time in 2020 and comes with team-control through 2022. He will not be cheap to acquire, however. Brian Dozier could be an alternative option as an affordable rental if the Twins are still committed to selling at the deadline.
Reason for hope: Manny Machado and Miguel Andujar
The Yankees look to be in need of a Game 3 starter who can swing a playoff series in their direction, but New York’s focus has been on acquiring the best player available at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline: Manny Machado.
The Yankees don’t need a shortstop, and they don’t look to be in need of a third baseman given Miguel Andujar’s .818 OPS at just 23 years old. But Andujar could be traded to acquire that starter the Yankees need to hang with the Astros, Indians and Red Sox, all of whom’s starters have performed better than the Yankees’ this year.
Toronto’s J.A. Happ is a “realistic” trade target the Yankees are considering according to Jon Heyman, and could be the Game 3 starter who swings the momentum of a playoff series the Yankees’ way. Happ earned a win over Houston allowing three earned runs over six innings earlier this season and has allowed just .938 walks/hits per inning pitched (WHIP) in two starts against Boston. His start against Seattle was a disaster, though, lasting just three and a third innings after allowing seven earned runs.
Reason for hope: Bullpen buyers’ market and Wilson Ramos
The defending champions have almost everything they need to repeat as champions. The Astros’ starting rotation has been almost 14 wins better than a replacement play – the best in baseball. Houston’s starters are so good that Collin McHugh was forced into a bullpen role, where he’s amassed an incredible ERA+ of 392.
The Astros, like every other contender, is looking to add bullpen depth at the Trade Deadline, and like the Red Sox, they’ve shown interest in Britton according the Heyman. With Ken Giles being optioned to Triple-A, Houston has reason to acquire a reliever despite its bullpen ranking second in MLB in WAR thus far in 2018.
The Astros aren’t reading too much into the success of catcher Max Stassi and his .804 OPS over 177 plate appearances either. And while Brian McCann is expected to return from arthroscopic right knee surgery in September, his .606 OPS over 173 plate appearances leaves a lot to be desired, even when considering the hitting ineptitude of catchers throughout the league.
That’s why the Astros contacted Tampa Bay about pending free agent and All-Star Wilson Ramos, whose proven ability to hit (.751 career OPS) will be even more evident given Houston’s deep lineup. His deficiencies behind the dish (6 defensive runs below average over 1,200 innings this season) would also be less impactful given the pitchers he’d be catching in Houston compared to those he’s catching with the Rays.
Reason for hope: Yu Darvish or J.A. Happ
The Cubs might make the second-best addition at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline and do so without surrendering anything in a trade, but that possibility is looking less and less likely everyday. Yu Darvish experienced pain in his elbow after a bullpen session that followed a rehab start in the minors, so the Cubs don’t know when or if he’ll be available.
The Cubs lead the National League in run differential, and by 25 runs as of this writing, making their 23rd-ranked starting pitching WAR less of a concern. That won’t be the case against an American League contender, however. The Astros, Red Sox and Yankees all have higher run differentials than the Cubs, which is why J.A. Happ has been on Chicago’s radar according to Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun. If Darvish gets bad news, the Cubs will have to add a starter to have a chance at winning a second World Series in three years.
Reason for hope: Buyers’ market for bullpen arms, Andrew Miller’s return, and maybe Adam Jones
The Cleveland Indians’ bullpen, once the team’s biggest strength, has become the team’s biggest weakness. Cleveland’s Cody Allen, who was almost unhittable last season, blew a four-run, ninth-inning lead over the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday, allowing six runs in two-thirds of an inning after Trevor Bauer tossed eight shutout innings. The Indians lost 7-4, breathing new life into a Minnesota Twins team that was 11.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central Division and announcing the availability of its pending free agents. The Twins are just 7.5 games back as of this writing and
While Andrew Miller is expected to return after the MLB All-Star Break, his return won’t make Cleveland’s bullpen playoff-ready. Allen’s struggles aren’t a result of bad luck. While his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.92 is evidence that his team’s defense is at least somewhat responsible for his bloated 4.66 Earned Run Average (ERA), Allen’s soft contact percentage of 8.9 percent thus far this season is a career low and way down from the career high of 22.2 percent he set last season.
Allen’s not the only Cleveland reliever struggling either. The Indians are last in bullpen ERA and home run rate allowed, and second to last in bullpen WAR, according to FanGraphs. So Cleveland needs all the bullpen help it can get at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline.
The Indians have also shown interest in center fielder Adam Jones of the Orioles because their center fielders Bradley Zimmer and Greg Allen have left much to be desired when a bat’s in their hands. The two have averaged a .576 OPS between them.
Baltimore is the perfect trade partner for Cleveland because the Indians could also acquire the bullpen help it needs in the form of Zach Britton, who is finally starting to look like his old self according to Jon Heyman of Fancred. Brad Brach, on the other hand, has surrendered hard contact on nearly a third of batted balls against him, a career high. Acquiring one reliever won’t likely be enough for Cleveland to contend for a championship, so they’re lucky it’s a buyers’ market for bullpen arms at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline.
Reason for hope: Robinson Cano’s return, Dee Gordon’s flexibility
I said prior to Opening Day that Dee Gordon’s transition to center field would be an adventure worth watching, and it was. While Gordon’s speed and athleticism was often displayed on highlight reels, he was well below average in center field (35 runs below average per 1,200 innings). But Robinson Cano’s suspension for performance-enhancing drug use makes the acquisition of Gordon one of the best deals Seattle won’t have to make at the Trade Deadline. The acquisitions of Denard Span (.842 OPS in 124 plate appearances) and Alex Colome (16 Ks in 16.2 innings pitched) at the end of May have provided the roster depth necessary for Seattle to make a push for the postseason as well.
Seattle will get Cano back on Aug. 14, which will be like adding an All-Star prior to the Aug. 31 waiver trade deadline. But unlike a waiver acquisition, Cano can’t participate in the postseason, so Jean Segura and Gordon will be the Mariners’ middle infielders should they make the playoffs, leaving a big hole in a lineup that struggles to score runs.
Recent recipient of a contract extension, Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto hasn’t been in a hurry to announce any trade targets at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline, even with both James Paxton and Felix Hernandez hitting the 10-day disabled list with minor back issues. Regardless, the Mariners’ eighth-ranked bullpen and 11th-ranked starting rotation according to FanGraphs’ WAR won’t be good enough to contend for a championship given their 20th-ranked offense in runs scored, so bringing another bat to Seattle might be necessary. Perhaps an Adam Jones reunion is in order given the Mariners’ .692 OPS from center fielders this season.
Reason for hope: Bullpen buyers’ market, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton, and Matt Wieters or Wilson Ramos
Stephen Strasburg and Sean Doolittle are potentially huge additions expected to come of the DL prior to the Trade Deadline, and the Nationals have already gotten Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy and catcher Matt Wieters back from injury just in time to save their season – the last of their quickly closing World Series window.
Washington is still in pursuit of a catcher like Ramos to push Wieters into a backup role, and while the Nationals have the eighth-best starting rotation in baseball, their 23rd-ranked bullpen is in dire need of an upgrade. Expect Washington to pursue pending free agents to improve its bullpen to allow for maximum flexibility in free agency this offseason.
Reason for hope: Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier...if the Twins actually sell
The Brewers were surprisingly good last year, and continue to surprise just about everyone by holding a one-game lead over the Cubs in the National League Central as of this writing. The starting rotation consists of no one you’ve heard of and the lineup is a collage of castaways, overachieving prospects and Ryan Braun. Their +55 run differential is 50 runs worse than the Cubs, but the Brewers’ bullpen is fantastic, especially Josh Hader – Milwaukee’s version of Andrew Miller.
Despite losing new acquisition Lorenzo Cain to injury, the Brewers continue to impress. But scoring the top bat available at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline could help them overcome their 17th-ranked offense in runs scored. They were in the bottom third of the league in runs scored last year, so the Brewers are better, but will end up fighting for a Wild Card spot regardless of what they do at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline, and they’ll need to do something big to hold off the Diamondbacks or Dodgers.
Milwaukee can improve most at both middle infield positions. The Brewers have been active in the Machado sweepstakes, but are unlikely to win his services according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. So the Brewers will have to hope the Twins’ recent success doesn’t deter them from trading pending free agents Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier, in whom Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports the Brewers’ interest.
Reason for hope: Adding another Zack to go with Greinke, Godley
Also leading their division as of this writing, the Diamondbacks will need to add at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline in order to hold off the Dodgers, who have been trending up and carry a run differential 36 runs better than Arizona’s as of July 13.
The Diamondbacks still have Zack Greinke, who allowed more home runs last year (25) than he had since his rookie year in 2004 (26), but the new baseball humidor in Arizona has made him even better in 2018.
Behind Greinke, though, only Patrick Corbin can be considered reliable for Arizona. Clay Bucholtz is on the 10-day disabled list with a strained oblique. Robbie Ray is averaging five walks per nine innings, and Zack Godley isn’t doing much better (4.7 walks per nine innings).
The Diamondbacks need a middle-of-the-rotation starter who can give them a chance in Game 3 of a playoff series, and adding a third Zack to the roster might be the solution. Arizona has expressed interest in the Mets’ Zack Wheeler, who is controlled through next season if Arizona loses Corbin to free agency this offseason.
Reason for hope: Clayton Kershaw once more, Manny Machado if they’re desperate, or Whit Merrifield, if they’re smart
Clayton Kershaw is back in what could be his last season with the Dodgers. He’s looked like his old self after coming off the disabled list, but the Dodgers needed more than Kershaw last season and need much more this season.
The Dodgers are considered a favorite to land Machado, which is the kind of addition Los Angeles would need to make at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline in order to contend for a title. If the Dodgers’ plan is to move Chris Taylor to second base for Logan Forsythe and plug Machado in at shortstop, they might be better off long-term adding Whit Merrifield given his lower cost, both in terms of prospects surrendered and salary owed. Plus, with Chase Utley retiring after the season, and Forsythe a free agent at the end of the year, the Dodgers could use a long-term, affordable second baseman who will improve the Dodgers’ 25th-ranked defense if Kershaw isn’t in LA to hide the Dodgers defensive deficiencies next year.
Per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, the Dodgers are also linked to the Reds’ Scooter Gennett, who doesn’t anticipate being traded Mark Sheldon reports for MLB.com. The Mets’ Asdrubal Cabrera also has the Dodgers’ attention, as does Josh Harrison of Pittsburgh per Mike Berardino of St. Paul. LA’s exploring all options because these could be the last of Kershaw’s Dodger days.
Reason for hope: Manny Machado, bullpen buyers’ market
Prior to Opening Day, I wrote that the Phillies weren’t as far from contending as some people thought thanks to their young talent being quick studies at the MLB level. They’ve proven me right, but why the Phillies are willing to trade the farm for not even half a season of Machado is beyond me.
The Phillies without Machado can make the playoffs and compete with anyone in the National League thanks to its NL-best starting rotation, which might be why they’re so eager to land the best player available at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline. They think Jake Arrieta, Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin can hang with the Cubs, Dodgers and Nationals, and they might be right.
Eflin was brilliant in one start against the Cubs, has two wins against the Brewers and one more against the Nationals. Nola allowed just two hits and one run over seven innings in a win over the Dodgers, is 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA against the Nationals and held the Cubs to three runs over six innings. And Arrieta pitched seven innings of shutout ball in a win over the Dodgers, has a .909 WHIP in two no-decisions against the Nationals and should be pretty familiar with the Cubs’ lineup.
Philadelphia seems to be in a hurry to take advantage of Washington’s sudden fall, but the Nationals will be even worse next year than they are this year, and Machado could be acquired without surrendering any prospects prior to the season. I think the Phillies are overreaching given their third-worst defense and 20th-ranked offense, but I’ve been wrong before.
Machado would certainly make the Phillies contenders for the NL pennant. I just don’t think the risk is worth the reward given the strength of the American League. If I were a Phillies fan, I’d rather hold onto our prospects and lose in the playoffs than trade those prospects to lose in the World Series and then lose Machado in free agency to the team that beat us in the World Series. But maybe I don’t know Philly fans.
Reason for hope: Michael Fulmer
Billy Beane sees the Athletics as buyers at the trade deadline, and they need a starter, especially with Trevor Cahill a free agent after the season. Detroit’s Michael Fulmer would give Oakland a stable starter atop the rotation through 2022 to pair with 26-year-old Sean Manaea, who is under team control through 2023, as is 25-year-old Frankie Montas. Fulmer would give Oakland three-fifths of a rotation with playoff potential under team control for at least five seasons. That’s worth a lot, and besides Chris Archer, Fulmer might demand the best prospect haul of any pitcher traded at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline.
Reason for hope: Rebuild way ahead of schedule, and Nick Markakis
The similarly surprising Braves are taking the exact opposite approach of the Phillies despite being just 1.5 games back of Philadelphia in the division. Unlike the Phillies, the Braves can really hit (sixth in MLB) and field the ball (seventh in MLB), but their pitching is middle-of-the-pack. Without any sure-fire aces available on the market, the Braves aren’t risking prospects for rentals according to Rosenthal. That’s a smart move given their situation.
Atlanta made an offer for Machado but isn’t likely to win his services. The Braves are looking to add controllable starting pitching at the trade deadline. They’ve scouted Nathan Eovaldi, who comes with another arbitration year beyond this one.
Reason for hope: Bullpen buyers’ market, Wacha and Wainwright?
The Cardinals are taking the same approach as the Braves. They aren’t shopping for rentals. They’ll look to improve the 23rd-ranked bullpen by adding arms controlled for multiple seasons. The Cardinals’ seventh-best starting rotation will add Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright sometime in August. Whether either is any good is yet to be determined.
Reason for hope: Bullpen buyers’ market, CarGo?
The Rockies have the 24th-ranked bullpen in baseball based on Fangraphs’ WAR. They, like the rest of the playoff contenders, stand to benefit from the vast supply of affordable bullpen options on the market.
Colorado also has until July 19 to trade outfielder Carlos Gonzalez before his no-trade protection begins, but that’s not likely given CarGo’s struggles on the road and against left-handers.
Reason for hope: Eduardo Escobar, Brian Dozier heating up, Nick Gordon, and, perhaps, Ervin Santana
The new Twins’ front office of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine managed to sell at the trade deadline in their rookie season last year and still made the playoffs. They’ll try to do it again. The Twins actually announced their willingness to trade their pending free agents, headlined by Eduardo Escobar, having fallen 11.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central. And just as they did last season, the Twins responded to the front office “for sale” announcement by winning baseball games – eight of 10 to pull within 7.5 games of Cleveland.
The return of Jorge Polanco from a performance-enhancing drug suspension allows the Twins to play on of their All-star snubs, Escobar, at third base while Miguel Sano figures out his swing in Fort Myers, where Twins’ top prospect Royce Lewis was recently promoted.
Falvey and Levine should still shop Escobar and take the best deal they can get for a player who could be a difference-maker for a contender. They could even get a difference-maker in return, albeit one a few years away, but that’s a lot more than Terry Ryan or anyone else likely expected when he moved Francisco Liriano for MLB’s current leader in doubles. Given Sano’s struggles to stay healthy and hit consistently, it might not be a bad idea for Minnesota to give Escobar some of the nearly $84 million it has coming off the books at the end of the year.
Making the playoffs without Escobar is a tall order for the Twins, however. He was the beating heart of last year’s playoff team and is the clubhouse leader. Ehire Adrianza can’t replace him in that regard or any other, but Byron Buxton could if he’s ever healthy.
Other players that might be valuable to a playoff contender are relievers Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke, second baseman Brian Dozier, who is heating up in the second half, as usual, and starters Lance Lynn and Jake Odorizzi. Remember, the Twins are expecting Ervin Santana to return someday.
Starter Kyle Gibson is more valuable than ever as well, and would bring a good return given his extra year of team control following this season – one in which he’s finally figured out how to use his best stuff best. Gibson’s been so good, the Twins might consider extending him. He’s finally the formidable middle-of-the-rotation starter the Twins knew he could be.
Reason for hope: Jeurys Familia, Derek Holland, Sam Dyson
The Giants are looking to shed more salaries after dealing centerfielder Austin Jackson and reliever Cory Gearrin to the Rangers, and could do the same with Derek Holland and Sam Dyson according to Henry Schulman, because the Giants would prefer to remain under the competitive balance tax threshold. But being just three games out of the playoffs at the All-Star Break has the Giants as modest buyers at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline, too.
The Giants are interested in acquiring Mets’ closer Jeurys Familia to shore up their bullpen down the stretch despite him being a rental, but with Jeff Samardzija being placed on the 10-day disabled list with shoulder inflammation for the second time, the Giants will likely have to wait to deal Holland until Samardzija returns if not acquire an affordable starter at the trade deadline.
Reason for hope: Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones?
The Orioles’ rebuilding effort should have began at the All-Star Break last year, but it will still get off to a good start with the dealing of Manny Machado and Zach Britton, both of whom will most certainly be traded by the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline. Britton won’t bring what he would have last season, but Machado will, and Adam Jones has drawn some interest from Cleveland. So it’s not all doom and gloom in Baltimore. Football season is right around the corner, Orioles fans.
Reason for hope: Asdrubal Cabrera
If the Mets aren’t going to move Jacob DeGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, according to Joel Sherman, or even Zack Wheeler, then Asdrubal Cabrera is Mets’ fans biggest reason for hope. The 32-year-old pending free agent has a career-best OPS+ of 127, and there are plenty of teams looking to improve at shortstop and second base.
The Brewers are especially in need of middle infield help, and Cabrera would be a nice consolation prize for the teams losing out on Manny Machado. The Phillies could have Cabrera for much less than Machado and still sign Machado in free agency.
Reason for hope: J.T. Realmuto, Brad Ziegler?
The Marlins’ steep price for their All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto is warranted. Realmuto is controllable through arbitration until 2021 and the trade market for catchers consists of Realmuto and the now-injured Wilson Ramos of Tampa Bay. That steep price might not stop the desperate Nationals from acquiring the All-Star, according to Heyman.
Steep prices are also attached to Kyle Barraclough, Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley for the same reasons as Realmuto. They are all controllable for an additional three years and the trade market for relievers is deep. Brad Ziegler is a pending free agent but hasn’t been particularly good (1.362 WHIP, 6.5 K:9).
Reason for hope: Joakim Soria
The lone trade chip on the White Sox roster is closer Joakim Soria, who at 34 is pitching like he’s 30. His 149 ERA+ and 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings both match his numbers from 2014 when he was good enough to net Texas Corey Knebel and Jake Thompson in a trade to Detroit. Soria could help another contender this season and should provide Chicago added value given his 2019 team option.
Reason for hope: Mike Moustakas, Whit Merrifield
The Red Sox could be interested in both Mike Moustakas and Whit Merrifield, and the Braves have expressed interest in adding Moustakas along with the Yankees, according to Jerry Crasnick. Merrifield has also drawn the Dodgers’ and Brewers’ eyes, so the Royals are sitting on a wealth of proverbial riches at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline.
Reason for hope: Raisel Iglesias
The Reds’ closer has the Astros salivating, as if Houston needs another bullpen arm as good as Iglesias’s, but Iglesias hopes to remain a Red his entire career MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reveals. Iglesias acknowledged that he has no control over that, however.
Cincinnati intends to spend in 2019, as the Reds are only a few starting pitchers away from competing for a playoff spot, of which there will be plenty available in free agency this offseason. Given that Iglesias isn’t even arbitration eligible until 2020, and Scooter Gennett isn’t a free agent until 2020, the Reds might just sit on their hands at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline, which is reason enough for hope.
Reason for hope: Michael Fulmer, Nicholas Castellanos
Michael Fulmer could be the most valuable trade chip on the table at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline, but the Tigers might as well keep him and his affordable salary for at least another year if not three.
Detroit would no doubt prefer to move Nicholas Castellanos, who has just one more year of arbitration eligibility to Fulmer’s four years of team control. Castellanos is enjoying his best season at the plate but is the worst defensive outfielder in Outs Above Average, Katie Strang notes. He could help an American League contender at designated hitter, though. Houston (.748 OPS) and Oakland (.780 )PS) are getting the worst production from their designated hitters amongst the buyers at the trade deadline. The league average OPS at DH is just .759.
Reason for hope: Shohei Ohtani
Prior to Opening Day, I wrote that the Angels still didn’t have the starting rotation to reach the playoffs, even with Shohei Ohtani in the mix. That has turned out to be true, but Ohtani is still swinging a bat despite his grade 2 UCL strain, and doing so quite capably.
Ohtani’s .889 OPS is second to only Mike Trout’s on the team and has been trending up since his return from the disabled list on July 3. With most of the Angels’ starters on the shelf with injuries, and their relievers under team control for multiple seasons, Los Angeles doesn’t have much to offer buyers at the trade deadline. So enjoy watching the best player in baseball and the Babe Ruth of Japanese baseball.
Reason for hope: J.A. Happ, Justin Smoak?
The Blue Jays stand to benefit from a short supply of starting pitching at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline. J.A. Happ might be the best addition a team could make to their starting rotation at the deadline, so Toronto should get a nice return for the 35-year-old, first-time All-Star. Heyman tweets that the Yankees think Toronto’s asking price for Happ is too high, however. He is a pending free agent.\
Justin Smoak is not a pending free agent, as Toronto will likely pick up his 2019 team option, but he could provide a lot of value to a contender in need of a designated hitter, demanding a strong prospect return. Curtis Granderson is another player who could provide a playoff team with some bench depth and pinch-hitting pop.
Reason for hope: Adrian Beltre, Cole Hamels?
The 39-year-old third baseman can still hit and play the hot corner with the best of them. He could be a big help to an American League contender like the Red Sox or Yankees, but the Rangers are looking to nab the Yankees’ Andujar at the deadline, and Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman is feeling vindicated for not trading Andujar already.
If the Rangers can package Hamels with Beltre they might get a return on par with Andujar. Hamels is in dire need of a change of scenery. Two-thirds of his 21 home runs have come while pitching in the thin air of Arlington, so even the short porches in Boston and the Bronx would likely serve Hamels better.
Reason for hope: Tyson Ross, Kirby Yates and Brad Hand
The Yankees have inquired about starter Tyson Ross, who is uber-affordable and, therefore, attractive. The Padres should net a nice return for Ross, who they signed to a minor-league deal. That would keep New York under the luxury tax threshold.
Once again, Brad Hand is the Padres’ best trade chip at the trade deadline, and they probably shouldn’t trade him given he’s locked up until 2021. Kirby Yates might be expendable, though, and his value has peaked. Yates has never been as good as he has been in 2018 (.876 WHIP).
Reason for hope: Josh Harrison
An All-Star last season, Josh Harrison is having a down year, but there’s a high demand for middle infielders at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline and always a high demand for players who can play multiple positions at the trade deadline. And with Francisco Cervelli’s brain injuries sustained behind the plate, it’s doubtful he’ll draw interest from contenders in need of a catcher.
Reason for hope: Adeiny Hechavarria, Nathan Eovaldi and Wilson Ramos?
Adeiny Hechavarria is a pending free agent who would look good in Milwaukee, and the Yankees, Brewers and Braves have been watching Tampa’s Nathan Eovaldi according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, and you can add Washington to that list, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos would bring the Rays the best return, but he’s been shelved with a hamstring injury, further thinning the market for catchers at the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline, which is just fine by the Marlins, who can only ask more for Realmuto.
At Foul Play-by-Play we provide play-by-play and color commentary of foul play in sports on and off the field, pitch, court and ice. Here are the headlines, cheats of the week and a trip back in time when foul play was fair game to John McGraw.
The NFL Players’ Association filed a non-injury grievance challenging the NFL’s new national anthem policy, Tuesday. According to our comrade Al Neal of PeoplesWorld.org, “[w]ith the league changing the policy without first negotiating with the union, it will need to rely on the broad powers given to the commissioner, Roger Goodell, through the personal conduct policy.”
What I took from the piece at People’s World is the players’ chances sort of depend on the definition of detrimental conduct and whether a majority of four, mutually-selected neutral arbitrators would consider kneeling during the national anthem to be conduct detrimental to the NFL. It seems the conduct has been detrimental to the league if you consider television ratings. A survey released in February found that 50 percent of U.S. consumers who watched less football in 2017 did so because of the anthem protests. But in-game advertising revenue actually increased, so what qualifies as evidence of detriment? Is loss of fans enough or does it have to be quantified in dollars?
And what kind of precedent would this be setting if the NFL’s national anthem policy remains unchanged? Neal mentioned prayer being challenged in his piece, but Tim Tebow proved taking a knee for Jesus is profitable for the NFL, but probably not during the anthem. And apparently taking a knee for a minority murdered by police who go free is detrimental to the league, which is just another example of American racism that didn’t go away because we had a black President; it intensified instead. I think eliminating prayer would be the last thing on the NFL’s wish list. I’m sure the old, white, can’t-dance owners, of which there are 30, would prefer to implement penalties as stiff as their hips for the hip-thrusting dancers we all love like Antonio Brown. I just don't think there's any way the NFL wins this because of the means by which they adopted the policy outside the collective bargaining agreement and without considering the players' association. But they could get an anthem win elsewhere...
In more NFL legal news, the NFL is asking arbitrator Stephen Burbank to issue a summary judgement in Colin Kaepernick’s collusion lawsuit against the league, which would bring an end to the saga and give NFL owners another win on the anthem front. Burbank’s refusal to issue a summary judgement would allow the grievance to move forward and allow Kaepernick an opportunity to collect.
The NFL, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, hopes to force Kaepernick to ‘put his cards on the table’ and prove they have enough evidence of collusion to continue the lawsuit. So even if the NFL doesn’t get the summary judgement, they’ll know the trial plan of Kaepernick’s team of lawyers. But law requires all facts to be viewed “in the most favorable light” towards Kaepernick, meaning it shouldn’t take much to force the continuation of the case.
I’m assuming Kaepernick doesn’t have a recording of a phone call with an NFL owner saying “I can’t hire you because the other owners said I can't,” so what could Kaepernick possibly have to prove collusion besides the statistics of his last season being better than most backup quarterbacks who played, and why can't that be enough? The only chance I think Kaepernick has is if NFL owners unanimously agreed that the backlash from Donald Trump's tweets would be more damaging to their bottom line than blackballing Kaepernick.
Disney’s $71.3-billion offer for the movie and television assets of 21st Century Fox has been granted provisional approval by the Department of Justice as long as Disney sells the 22 regional sports networks it would acquire in the acquisition. While Comcast could still outbid Disney for Fox’s assets, they too would likely be required to sell the regional sports networks (RSNs) in order to receive DOJ approval.
With Disney’s assets already including ESPN and ABC programming – the homes of Monday Night Football, the NBA Playoffs and NBA Finals – the company that rode the coattails of a cartoon mouse to mountains of money has found plenty of new ways to invade your home. But Disney’s potential acquisition of Fox’s assets opens doors at the box office as well, uniting the Marvel Cinematic Universe to include the X-men, Fantastic Four and Deadpool along with Disney’s Avengers and Black Panther.
The condition of divesting Fox’s RSNs demanded by the DOJ is intended to preserve competition and protect consumers from monopolistic price gouging, but will it? Andrew Bucholtz of Awful Announcing expects Comcast, holder of the second-most RSNs behind Fox with seven, Charter, owner of five RSNs, and AT&T, owner of three RSNs and a minority shareholder of Seattle’s Root Sports, to be frontrunners for the 22 RSNs Disney will be forced to sell.
Sports teams could also acquire their respective RSNs. YES Network, formerly owned by the Yankees, could once again become an asset for the pinstripers. Eight professional sports teams are featured on Fox Sports Southwest, so it’s possible that a few RSNs end up owned by teams, but taking the best offer might not be the best deal for Disney.
Selling the 22 RSNs individually might result in the most money made from the sale of those networks, but packaging all or most of the RSNs together in a deal allows the buyer to set a higher price for access because of a lack of competition that would remain, which would allow Disney to, in turn, hike the price of its offerings to match that of the acquiring party, resulting in more revenue long-term despite the lower purchase price.
Colombia striker Radamel Falcao accused American referee Mark Geiger of favoring England in Colombia’s World Cup loss to England in the round of 16, last Tuesday. Colombia was the recipient of six of the game’s eight yellow cards and were whistled for 23 of the 36 fouls.
Geiger was also responsible for England’s only goal during open play, resulting from a penalty he called on Colombia midfielder Carlos Sanchez. Falcao thought scheduling a referee who only spoke English for a game involving England allowed for bias and that “through small calls,” Geiger was pushing Colombia toward its own goal.
We talked a bit last week about the attitude of soccer players in our discussion of the Swedish coach complaining about the German team celebrating its win in stoppage time in front of the Swedes’ bench. And while players and coaches find a way to complain about officiating in every sport, FIFA’s history of corruption has to be considered before Falcao is labeled a crybaby. I didn’t watch the match, so I can’t comment on the calls Geiger made, but I don’t need to watch the game to make a decision in this case.
If it can be avoided, I don’t think a native English speaker, and certainly not a speaker of only English, should officiate any international contest in which native English speakers are involved. I understand that coaches and captains, not necessarily every player, should be able to communicate with officials, but FIFA is known to have its favorites, and Colombia has never been one of those. England, meanwhile, has exceeded everyone’s expectations at the World Cup. Even if the scheduling of Geiger for this game wasn’t an intentional attempt at foul play, FIFA didn’t do much to silence sceptics like Falcao and Foul Play-by-Play.
Kam Chancellor has announced his retirement after eight seasons as safety for the late Legion of Boom. His announcement doesn’t qualify as an official retirement, though, because he isn’t medically cleared to play and is retiring as a result.
That means the Seahawks will be required to pay Chancellor the $6.8 million he’s owed this season because he was on the roster after Feb. 10. Chancellor is also due the $5.2 million guaranteed next season, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport explains.
I think this is money Chancellor has already earned simply by sacrificing his body to play previous seasons, but some people might be up in arms over the fact Chancellor is being paid not to work, even if they qualify for workers’ compensation when they’re injured on the job.
The Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles will likely be without starting linebacker Nigel Bradham for their opening game of the 2018 NFL season against the Atlanta Falcons. Bradham, 28, just signed a five-year, $40 million extension with the Eagles.
A one-game suspension could be coming for Bradham as a result of a 2016 alleged assault at a hotel in south Florida. Bradham turned himself in and was charged with aggravated battery, but he avoided jail time. Ray Rice was only suspended two games for his third-degree aggravated assault, so do you think the NFL gave Bradham a break because of how he handled the allegation or because we don’t have a video of the alleged assault, which Bradham said has been resolved legally?
Our dishonorable mention this week is New York Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner, who told Newsday he wasn’t happy about being fined “thousands of dollars” for taking too long to get into the batter’s box. Gardner complained about pitchers throwing to bases to waste time while he takes “three seconds too long to get in the box.” Gardner isn’t the first or only player fined for pace of play violations. Adam Jones told MLB Network Radio he was fined $50,000 last year for violating the rules. I don’t think Gardner has good argument here because throw-overs are necessary, legal in-game action, while Gardner tightening his batting gloves or adjusting his nut cup is simply inaction.
Bronze Balls: Speaking of nuts, owner of the bronzest balls this week is New England Patriots receiver Julian Edelman for appealing his four-game, performance-enhancing drug suspension and losing.
Silver Syringe: Winner of the silver syringe this week is Indianapolis Colts running back Robert Turbin, who is facing a four-game suspension for performance-enhancing drug use, which he confirmed on Twitter.
Two-bit Cheat of the Week: And our two-bit cheat of the week is my boy, Grayson Allen, who got tangled up with the Atlanta Hawks’ Trae Young in the final Summer League game for the Utah Jazz. A more apt description of the incident might be that Allen tied up Young, with his arms draped over Young’s shoulders in what was at least an intentional foul (VIDEO). Allen received a personal foul and then technicals were given to both players for the foul play after Allen’s foul play.I like this attitude of Allen’s showing up early in his NBA career because he can make up for some of his defensive inability by flirting with the boundaries of foul play. It’s also fun to watch given his history.
On July 8th, 1902, player/manager John McGraw earned his release from the Baltimore Orioles after being suspended indefinitely on June 29th because he and his players incessantly argued with umpires even after McGraw told Johnson he’d put an end to it. McGraw proceeded to protest calls by umpire Jack Sheridan by sitting down in the batter’s box until he was expelled, and continued to encourage his players to berate umpires.
Upon his release, McGraw organized the purchase of 201 shares of Orioles stock with John Brush and Andrew Freedman from Orioles president John J. Mahon for majority ownership of the franchise so they could ship players to the Cincinnati Reds or New York Giants franchises Brush and Freedman also owned. Knowing that Johnson intended to move the Orioles to New York and the American League after the season, McGraw secured the rights of four players to play for the Giants, and Brush claimed three more for the Reds, leaving the Orioles with just five players.
The Orioles had to forfeit a game to the St. Louis Browns on July 17 and borrowed players from other teams to complete their schedule. Johnson announced the intended move of the Orioles to New York and the American League, and Brush purchased the Giants from Freedman. And in the second year of its existence, the World Series was cancelled because McGraw refused to play the American League due to his feud with Johnson. He agreed to play the following season, winning the 1905 World Series. John McGraw went on to win two more World Series for the Giants in 1921 and 1922. These McGraw-inspired antics are what I miss most in this era of replay.
At Foul Play-by-Play we investigate foul play on and off the field, court, ice and pitch, giving you the week's cheats, cheap shots and alleged criminals in sports. Here are the headlines for the last two weeks ending July 1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has been suspended for the first three games of the 2018 season for allegedly groping an Uber driver over two years ago. Winston has denied the allegations and negotiated a six-game suspension down to three games for issuing an apology, during which Winston never admitted guilt. He said he was sorry to have put her in that position but not for sexually assaulting her.
The suspension stems from an alleged incident that occurred in March of 2016, a couple of months after the end of Winston's rookie season in the NFL. After partying with friends in Scottsdale, Arizona, Winston ended up in an Uber. The driver of that car, whose identity still has never been revealed, alleges that Winston grabbed her crotch while they were waiting in a restaurant drive-thru lane. She did not and has not pressed charges but reported the incident to Uber, which deactivated Winston’s account shortly after.
The NFL was made aware of the incident after the accuser shared her story with BuzzFeed News. Witnesses have differing testimonies of the night in question, with Winston’s former Florida State teammate Ronald Darby saying he was in the Uber that night and that “nothing inappropriate in nature happened in the car that evening and Jameis did not have any physical contact with the Uber driver.” But former Vanderbilt football player Brandon Banks, serving a 15-year prison sentence for rape and sexual battery, said he and Darby put Winston in the Uber alone that night.
In similarly ugly NFL news of foul play off the field, outgoing Carolina Panthers owner Jerry Richardson was fined $2.75 million after an investigation confirmed allegations of racial and sexual misconduct in the workplace.
In a letter to Richardson published by Sports Illustrated, one of the women said she "didn't know what to do" about alleged multiple sexual advances by Richardson, including being asked to place her feet in his lap to be rubbed from toes to crotch, being asked to turn around so Richardson could see how her jeans fit, hands placed on her breasts and lips, and being asked sexually charged questions.
The sale of the Panthers to hedge fund billionaire David Tepper was approved at the owners meetings in May for an NFL-record $2.275 billion and is expected to close in the next two weeks. Richardson and investors paid just $203 million for the franchise in 1993.
One thing I’ve taken from the Me Too movement is that the victims of sexual harassment place vastly different values on their privacy. I think I would bring charges regardless of how much money there was to be won in a sexual assault or harassment case. But some of these victims would rather remain anonymous and tell BuzzFeed for an unannounced amount of money. What would you do?
The Detroit Tigers fired pitching coach Chris Bosio for using insensitive language towards a team employee, but the whole thing could be a misunderstanding that results in legal action taken by Bosio against the team.
Bosio said he used the word “monkey” to describe Tigers pitcher Daniel Stumpf in the team’s coaches’ room. Bosio calls Stumpf “Spider Monkey.” “That’s his nickname,” he said, “He's a skinny little white kid who makes all of these funny faces when he works out.”
Bosio believes the black clubhouse attendant thought he and the other coach were talking about him, but he insists that was not the case, swearing on his parents’ graves in an interview with USA Today.
In what could be a similar case...
Hanley Ramirez was wrongfully implicated by Michele McPhee of ABC News in connection with a drug arrest of a man who Facetime’d Ramirez during the stop, claiming some of the paraphernalia to belong to him. The accused said later that he was trying to get the cops off his back.
Ramirez was released by the Red Sox on May 25 and has been a free agent looking for work since June 1. While Ramirez’s OPS of .708 is well below his .848 career OPS, he’s likely missed out on an employment opportunity because of this ABC News crime reporter needlessly mentioning him in connection with this drug bust involving 435 grams of fentanyl and a “large amount” of crack.
The body of Roosevelt Rene was found on the property of Janoris Jenkins while he was in Florida upon the completion of the New York Giants’ training camp. William H. Jenkins, the 34-year-old brother of Janoris Jenkins, allegedly had a dispute with Rene according to a police complaint released Thursday.
The complaint says William Jenkins got into an altercation with Rene on Monday night that resulted in Rene's death. Jenkins then fled and was arrested later Monday by the New York State Police on an unrelated matter and held in Ontario County Jail. Jenkins has been charged with one count of aggravated manslaughter and remains in custody. His brother has been advised by lawyers to remain in Florida.
Toronto Blue Jays’ closer Roberto Osuna was suspended 75 games without pay last Friday for violating Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy. Osuna, 23, was arrested by Toronto police and charged with assaulting his girlfriend on May 8. He was placed on administrative leave by the league, which has been investigating the incident ever since.
Osuna will not appeal the suspension retroactive to May 8 and extending through Aug. 4. He will miss 89 days, which would cost him about $2.54 million of his $5.3 million salary. Osuna will plead not guilty to the charges on July 9, according to his attorney.
MLB and the players' union agreed on a domestic violence policy in 2015, a year after the National Football League adopted its domestic violence policy. Both allow the leagues to discipline a player for a domestic violence incident regardless of whether there are charges or a trial.
Let’s try something new with a segment we’re calling Foul Play-by-Play Feelings, where we talk about our feelings and the feelings of those crying foul play in sports.
Sweden coach Janne Andersson complained about the German bench for "rubbing in" their victory as they celebrated Toni Kroos' stoppage-time winner in Germany's 2-1 World Cup win on Saturday. There was a confrontation between members of both teams on the sideline at midfield, with gestures allegedly made, and the two groups had to be separated.
Basically, the Sweden’s problem with Germany was that they celebrated in front of their bench and allegedly directed gestures towards the Swedes, for which the Germans apologized. But we all know what an apology’s worth given Jameis Winston’s recent attempt.
Personally, I think these Swedish soccer players need to play some baseball to realize what a real walk-off loss feels like, because in that game they don’t even wait for you to get to your bench before celebrating. They celebrate right in front of you while you’re still on the field, hopefully tossing a bat like Jose Bautista and staring down your pitcher. They celebrate on the way to first base! What do you think? Are these Swedish soccer players softees or were the Germans in the wrong, because if there was more of this after soccer matches I’d be more likely to watch them.
The NBA Draft is a night every NBA fan has reason for hope – or two reasons for hope – or three, or in the case of the Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers this year, four reasons for hope. Here are the reasons fans of every NBA team should have hope following the 2018 NBA Draft.
The Suns got a lot better through the draft, and while they might have passed on the best player available, they did so for locally-grown talent like the Minnesota Twins did in drafting Joe Mauer over Mark Prior. While DeAndre Ayton is from the Bahamas, he played high school basketball in Phoenix, and a year of college ball at Arizona. Suns scouts probably saw more than enough of Ayton to be comfortable in making him the number one overall pick.
The Suns also acquired Mikal Bridges, who seems to be a can’t miss kid. He was the best value pick near the top of the draft according to the ESPN Stats & Info model. Bridges will likely be more prepared to play meaningful minutes in the NBA than the athletic Zhaire Smith, who the Suns shipped to Philadelphia along with a 2021 first-round pick that originally belonged to Miami. The Suns’ starting lineup likely got two potential upgrades in Ayton and Bridges, and Phoenix used the second round to draft project prospects with potential.
The Suns also scored the 20th overall player in point guard Elie Okobo out of France with the 31st pick. And even after moving their second-round pick to Orlando for point guard Elfrid Payton, the Suns used Toronto’s 59th overall pick to draft an accomplished defender with potential in George King. The Suns went from bad to better in one day.
The Kings passed on putting a pair of Duke University one-and-dones on their roster. After drafting Marvin Bagley III with the second overall pick, the Kings traded the rights to point guard Gary Trent Jr. to Portland for two future second-round picks and cash. But Bagley is Kings fans’ reason for hope. I’m a little jealous because fans in Sacramento are going to enjoy watching Bagley dunk, which he does whenever possible and leaves no doubt as to whether the ball went through the basket. He’s also a great rebounder whose second and third jump is quicker and higher than any center I’ve seen in college. Jay Bilas said the same on draft night and he’s seen a hell of a lot more college basketball players than me. Bagley runs the floor really well, has a complete repertoire of low-post moves, can handle the ball, is a strong finisher at the rim and will pull up and hit from three-point range. Kings’ coach Dave Joerger’s task will be teaching him how to play defense, which could take awhile.
The Mavericks got the best player available in Luka Doncic, giving up their protected first-round pick in 2019 to move up two spots in 2018. He’s a perfect fit for Dallas, where international star Dirk Nowitzki’s career is coming to an end. Doncic is the new Dirk and will probably be worth the first-rounder Dallas dumped to get him. The Mavericks’ Dennis Smith Jr. and Doncic should run the floor well together.
The Mavericks filled out their bench with point guard Jalen Brunson of the NCAA champion Villanova Wildcats and acquired from Philadelphia the 56th overall pick in Ray Spalding – a long, pick-and-roll player who can flush the lob – and the final player drafted, Kostas Antetokounmpo – brother of Giannis Antetokounmpo, which is reason enough to draft him. But Mavericks fans’ reason for hope is Doncic – the youngest player to ever win EuroLeague MVP. He’s not even old enough to drink yet.
The Grizzlies drafted the top-ranked power forward in the 2018 NBA Draft at fourth overall. Jaren Jackson Jr. will fit nicely with or without Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. He can guard all five positions and defends the rim with the best of them. He also dishes out the fouls, which should be appreciated by Grindhouse fans.
Also contributing the the Grizzlies’ Grindhouse atmosphere will be point guard Jevon Carter, who was one of the best defenders on one of the best defensive college basketball teams for what seems like forever in West Virginia. His struggle scoring shouldn’t be a problem playing next to MarShon Brooks, who averaged 20 points per game over just seven games played last year. ESPN’s analytics model ranked Carter 17th overall, so Memphis might have scored a steal in Carter, selected 32nd overall.
The Hawks didn’t lose the trade with Dallas for Doncic. It was a fair deal. They got a protected first-round pick in next year’s draft for moving down two spots in the 2018 NBA Draft and got the sensationally shooting and assisting Trae Young to run their offense that exploits Taurean Prince’s ability to hit the right corner three-pointer.
The Hawks added even more shooting ability in shooting guard Kevin Huerter with the 19th overall pick, who will further stretch defenses, along with stretch big man Omari Spellman out of Villanova to conclude the 2018 NBA Draft’s first round. The addition of Young and Huerter will undoubtedly increase the number of three-pointers attempted by the Hawks, who were seventh in the NBA in that category last season.
Then the Hawks scored two future second-round picks for sending point guard Devonte’ Graham to Charlotte, so regardless of what the Hawks do this season, they could end up with three lottery picks in next year’s draft and another six picks in the second round next year.
The Magic got even longer by drafting Mohamed Bamba, whose 7-foot-nine-inch wingspan will be the longest in the NBA. Defensively, the Magic are going to alter shots like no other team in the league, especially after adding perimeter defender Melvin Frazier of Tulane. Orlando went all in on defense, trading Jarred Vanderbilt to Denver for Justin Jackson and a future second-round pick. The Magic’s 19th-ranked defensive rating got a whole lot better in a hurry.
With the addition of Wendell Carter Jr. and Chandler Hutchison, the Bulls’ rebuild is almost over already. Carter can play both frontcourt positions, so he can give Lauri Markkanen a blow when needed and could probably start over Robin Lopez at center. The Bulls were hoping Hutchison would fall to them at 22 overall, and he did. He’ll fit in nicely as a versatile wing coming off the bench. It didn’t take long for the Bulls to become relevant again. The trade of Jimmy Butler to the Timberwolves that netted Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and Markkanen seems much less lopsided now than when it was made on draft day in 2017, especially with the Timberwolves’ lone draft pick acquired in the trade playing four minutes all of last season.
Whether LeBron James stays or goes, the Cavaliers have been in dire need of another scorer to complement James since trading Kyrie Irving to Boston for Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic and the very draft pick that ended up being point guard Collin Sexton. Now they might need to replace the scoring James provides, and Sexton is a score-first point guard who runs the floor well. While he might not be a fit with James given LeBron’s affinity for handling the ball, he compliments Kevin Love’s spot-up shooting ability with his drive-and-dish game. He’s also healthy and can play right now, which is a message Cleveland needed to send James. Drafting a question mark coming off an injury like Michael Porter Jr. or a high-ceiling project who will take years to develop wouldn’t give James much reason to stay in Cleveland.
Knicks fans who attended the 2018 NBA Draft didn’t like the Knox selection, but they didn’t like the selection of Kristaps Porzingis, either. Porzingis offered some advice to Knox after he was booed at the draft, but Knicks fans should actually be happy with this pick. Knox will get plenty of playing time in the absence of Porzingis, who could miss the entire 2018-19 season. Knox has plenty of areas to improve, especially on defense. Throwing him into the fire that is the NBA will give him an opportunity to realize his potential sooner, so when Porzingis returns, he’s a competitive, complimentary big man to the bigger man.
The Knicks also got a shot-blocker to stand in for Porzingis in Mitchell Robinson, the third-best center in the draft according to ESPN and 28th-ranked player overall, but the 16th-best player according to ESPN’s analytics model. The Knicks selected him with the 36th pick, and while Robinson fell in the draft due to off-court concerns, the Knicks could benefit greatly from the cautiousness of other NBA teams.
After giving us the feel-good story of the draft by selecting the son of their human resources vice president, the Sixers dealt him to Phoenix for Zhaire Smith to save a million dollars, according to ESPN’s Kevin Pelton. Coming along with Smith is the Miami Heat’s unprotected 2021 first-round pick from Phoenix, which the Spurs could find valuable in a potential Kawhi Leonard trade. Not to be overlooked is Smith’s athleticism and potential to be the best defender in this draft.
Oh yeah, and Philadelphia scored Shake Milton from Dallas for two of the final five picks in the 2018 draft. Milton is a six-foot-six-inch point guard who averaged 18 points per game for SMU and shot 43 percent from three-point range. Milton’s combine performance left a lot to be desired, but the 76ers can afford to be patient with Milton because they have Ben Simmons.
The Sixers also selected Isaac Bonga, an 18-year-old, point-forward project out of Germany. He was the 61st-ranked player overall according to ESPN, so Philadelphia saw something they really liked in the kid. They continue to “Trust the Process” without much concern for criticism despite their general manager Bryan Colangelo resigning in disgrace days before his biggest day on the job.
The Hornets traded down one spot in the 2018 NBA Draft to add two players who can contribute immediately. Charlotte acquired two future second-round picks from the Clippers for trading the 11th pick for the 12th pick to get Miles Bridges, who fills an immediate need, instead of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who does not. The Hornets then flipped those future second-rounders to Atlanta for 23-year-old point guard Devonte’ Graham, who can play meaningful minutes and provide some healthy competition for Michael Carter-Williams.
The Clippers passed on filling an immediate need with Bridges and chose instead to build a modern NBA backcourt around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jerome Robinson. This was clearly the Clippers’ “Plan A” because selecting Robinson with the 13th pick was the biggest reach of the first round according to ESPN’s Stats & Info model, which ranked Robinson 59th overall with a 44-percent chance of being a bust.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Robinson complement each other perfectly. What Robinson lacks in length defensively, Gilgeous-Alexander has in spades. What Gilgeous-Alexander lacks in spot-up shooting ability, Robinson has in spades. Both will be effective in pick-and-roll play and force defenders to switch, allowing them both to play around their weaknesses by forcing mismatches that play to their strengths. Whether it’s DeAndre Jordan or Montrezl Harrell setting screens for the new Clippers’ backcourt, they’re likely to be the beneficiary of lobs fit for flushing.
The Nuggets struck gold with the 14th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, or is it fool’s gold? Medical reports regarding Michael Porter Jr.’s surgically repaired back spooked Cleveland, so Denver took advantage of its current roster situation and draft position. With 11 players returning to a roster that was seven points from beating the Timberwolves and making the playoffs, the Nuggets can afford to bring Porter Jr. along at his preferred pace, like the Sixers did with Simmons last season.
At the small forward position, Wilson Chandler was better than a replacement player last season with a 0.6 Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) while playing nearly 32 minutes per game for Denver. And while the Nuggets don’t have the cap space to re-sign unrestricted free agent Richard Jefferson, Torrey Craig was serviceable (-0.1 VORP) in his first NBA season, averaging 4.2 points and 3.3 rebounds in 16.1 minutes per game. If Porter Jr. is healthy, the Nuggets are probably a playoff team in 2018-19. If he’s not, the Nuggets could still be a playoff team despite redshirting their top draft pick for a season.
Denver also acquired power forward Jarred Vanderbilt, the 41st overall pick, from Orlando for Justin Jackson, the 43rd overall pick, and a future second-round pick. The Nuggets are getting a long defender in Vanderbilt, who has to increase his lower body strength and offensive game in the half-court.
Seven-foot center Thomas Welsh out of UCLA provides some G-League depth behind Mason Plumlee and Nikola Jokic, whose agent advised Denver to decline Jokic’s team option to avoid losing him as an unrestricted free agent after next season. Jokic would become a restricted free agent this offseason if the Nuggets were to decline his team option, but Denver would be able to match offers made to their star regardless of their absent salary cap space.
The Wizards used the 15th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft to fill an immediate need – backcourt bench depth. They got it in Oregon’s Troy Brown, who can play four positions on both sides of the ball, but might need some seasoning in the G-League. He’s only 18 years old – the third-youngest player projected to be drafted. So with Brown, the Wizards not only got someone to give John Wall and Bradley Beal breaks, but can spell Otto Porter Jr. and Kelly Oubre, too. And his young legs should allow him to provide quality minutes regardless of his position on the floor when his offensive game is ready for the NBA. His defense should already play.
The Wizards weren’t through selecting youth. They also selected the second-youngest player expected to be drafted in point guard Issuf Sanon of Ukraine. Like Brown, Sanon’s defensive ability is ahead of his offensive prowess, and even more so than Brown’s. Sanon will take a few years to develop, but Washington hopes it has a sleeper in Sanon who could eventually join Brown as a potential replacement for Beal in 2021 and Wall in 2023 if they aren’t retained.
The Bucks got just what they needed in Donte DiVincenzo. The point guard whose name just begs to be spoken aloud, which it was often during the NCAA championship game he helped win. DiVincenzo will serve as a combo-guard in Milwaukee, which suits the 40-percent three-point shooter just fine. DiVincenzo wasn’t shy about shooting from NBA distance last year, either. His shot plays in the NBA, but his six-foot-six-inch wingspan might make guarding taller players on the wings a challenge. What he’ll give up against taller wings, though, he’ll get back guarding point guards and shooting over them. DiVincenzo also provides Milwaukee some insurance with point guard Eric Bledsoe becoming an unrestricted free agent after next season.
After DiVincenzo was selected by Milwaukee, I immediately hoped Lonnie Walker would fall to the Timberwolves at 20th overall. I should have known better, because San Antonio didn’t hesitate to select the player I and ESPN’s Jonathan Givony think could be one of the biggest steals of the draft.
Immediately upon seeing Walker’s haircut on draft night, I flashed back to the game I watched him play against Duke in January. He led Miami with 19 points in 33 minutes, but I distinctly remember him being uncharacteristically hot from three-point range and causing all kinds of problems for the Blue Devils on defense. He was five of eight from three-point range and had four steals, and if it weren’t for Gary Trent Jr. going off for 30 points on six-of-nine shooting from beyond the arc, Walker might have led the 25th-ranked Hurricanes to an upset over the fifth-ranked Blue Devils.
You might think this example contradicts my claim that Walker could be the biggest steal of the draft because he’s not even as good as Trent, who went 37th overall. He probably isn’t as good as Trent – yet – simply because Trent’s best skill is the most sought-after skill in the NBA right now.
Trent shoots it better from long-range than Walker (40.2 percent to 34.6 percent last season), but Walker’s length and athleticism make him a better inside the arc than Trent (48.7 percent to 43.0 percent on two-point attempts). Walker is also the better facilitator, dishing 61 assists per 37 turnovers last season. Trent managed just 52 assists and turned it over 38 times. So Walker, now having at his disposal the best player development team in the NBA, can focus on improving the one skill he’s missing while Trent attempts to improve all the skills Walker already possesses.
The Spurs also drafted seven-foot center Chimezi Metu from USC. Like Walker, Metu has a lot of natural ability, but is more of a project given the defensive improvements he needs to make while also finding consistency with his jump shot.
The Timberwolves still have Jimmy Butler, and as long as that’s the case, Timberwolves fans have reason for hope. Even with coach and president Tom Thibodeau being the alleged source of a split in the locker room between old Bulls and young Wolves, Butler gives Minnesota a chance to contend – and not just for a playoff spot. They finally beat Houston in the playoffs after failing to do so in the regular season, but probably should have won Game 1 in Houston, too.
The Timberwolves are really good one through six, with Tyus Jones being the sixth man after Jamal Crawford opted out of his contract. The rest of the bench leaves a lot to be desired, though. So much so not even Thibodeau could hide its collective ineptitude, and if he can’t do it, no one can. He was the only coach to have three players finish in the top 15 in minutes played last season, and it would have been four had Jimmy Butler not torn his meniscus. It makes you wonder if Taj Gibson’s defensive rating last season (112 points allowed per 100 possessions) would have been closer to his career rating (104) had he been playing the 26 minutes per game he’s averaged throughout his career instead of the 33 minutes he averaged per game last year. But that’s a topic for another piece.
The Timberwolves didn’t get an offer they liked enough to trade down and pass on shooting guard Josh Okogie. With the three selections made prior to the Timberwolves being shooting guards, and five of the previous six being guards, it was a safe assumption that trend would continue, leaving few shooters left in the draft to fill Minnesota’s biggest immediate need.
In fact, trading down could have been devastating for Thibodeau and the Wolves, as shooting guards were selected with three of the four picks immediately following the Wolves’ selection at 20th overall, and guards were selected with five of the six picks behind Minnesota. The run on guards spanned eight consecutive picks, so moving down from 20th to just 24th could have left the Wolves with the 10th-ranked shooting guard, Anfernee Simons, instead of the fifth-ranked shooting guard in Okogie. The 12th-ranked shooting guard also came off the board in that short span, so Thibodeau made the right move not making a move.
It couldn’t have taken much convincing for Thibodeau to draft Okogie, though. He’s a defender first and has the length for which coaches long. His offensive efficiency in college was adversely affected by carrying the scoring load for a bad Georgia Tech team, but he still hit 38 percent of this threes and was in the 93rd percentile on 62 catch-and-shoot jumpers. Too bad the Wolves don’t see many open, catch-and-shoot jumpers. Minnesota took more contested shots and the second-fewest wide open shots in the NBA last season, so Okogie better find ways to create open looks, because they’re not being created for him or anyone else in a Wolves uniform.
That said, MIke Schmitz’s scouting report on Okogie for ESPN reads: “Extremely rigid ball handler. Shouldn't be tasked with shot-creation duties in the half court.” I guess Thibodeau better start drawing up offensive plays, or better yet, hire someone to do so. Again, Timberwolves fans’ biggest reason for hope is Jimmy Butler, but the bench won’t be as abysmal in 2018-19.
Thibodeau filled another immediate need by drafting small forward Keita Bates-Diop with the 48th overall pick. Bates-Diop was the second-oldest player projected to go in the first round, so Thibodeau grabbing him with the 18th pick of the second round makes this at least look like a high-value selection. Some evidence to support that high value was provided by ESPN’s analytics model, which ranked Bates-Diop 15th overall, which would make him the second-best steal of the second round. Bates-Diop did drain almost two three-pointers per game his senior season and averaged 19.8 points per game. He likely dropped in the draft due to teams’ concerns with his underwhelming performances in his first three years at Ohio State and a foot injury that kept him out most of the 2016-17 season. But if Bates-Diop doesn’t end up healthy, at least the Wolves will finally get some meaningful minutes from their lone draft pick from 2018, Justin Patton, right?
Again, Jimmy Butler is Wolves fans’ biggest reason for hope.
After DiVincenzo and Walker were off the board, I wanted Thibodeau to select Grayson Allen. Pairing him with former teammate and fellow national champion Tyus Jones would have given this Duke fan great pleasure. Instead, I long for Utah’s roster and salary cap situation.
The Jazz got one of the best shooters in the 2018 NBA Draft, and they got him with the 21st overall pick. Allen has NBA shooting range. He can shoot off the dribble just about as well as he catches and shoots. He can jump, and he can dunk. He runs the floor and plays with a now-controlled intensity that was downright dirty in his youth. But he’s never going to be a great defender. In fact, he might never be an above average defender, and not because of a lack of effort. But if the Jazz focus his attention on defending against perimeter shots and cheating help to his backside, at worst, he’ll be giving up tough twos and scoring threes.
With uber-assister Ricky Rubio and Allen on the court together (both of whom could be Timberwolves this very moment), the Jazz have a recipe to hang with the three-point exploiters like Houston and Golden State – if Donovan Mitchell is healthy.
Both Darren Collison and Cory Joseph become unrestricted free agents after this season, so the Pacers filled a potentially empty position on the floor in 2019-20 by selecting Aaron Holiday 23rd overall. He was the fifth-ranked point guard in the 2018 NBA Draft and gives Indiana and Indiana fans plenty of reasons for hope.
Holiday’s long wingspan for a guard should help quiet any concerns over his height and assist him on defense, where he’s already NBA-ready. He can score, especially when he catches and shoots, and even with a hand in his face. He can hit the three, draining almost three per game and 42 percent of his attempts his junior year. The Pacers may very well have found their starting point guard of the future.
With the 50th pick, the Pacers filled another need at power forward by drafting Alize Johnson out of Missouri State. Thaddeus Young is an unrestricted free agent after the season, and Domantas Sabonis and TJ Leaf have club options the Pacers could reject next year. So, like Holiday, Johnson has an opportunity to slide into a starting role if his NBA game comes together quickly. Regardless, the Pacers could have almost $77 million in cap space entering the 2019-20 season, which is reason enough for hope.
The Blazers were eleventh in the NBA with a 36.6-percent three-point percentage last season, but were just 16th in three-pointers made because they were 19th in three-pointers attempted. Gary Trent Jr. will improve all of those rankings. As I stated previously, Trent’s best skill is making threes, which will pay dividends for Portland right now. The Blazers will learn how to accommodate their rookie on the defensive end and shake off the turnovers if he’s hitting threes. Acquiring Trent from Sacramento for two future second-rounders and cash is a good deal for the Blazers, who had already drafted their guy.
The Blazers really liked Anfernee Simons, the least-experienced player in the draft. They liked him enough to use their first-round pick at 24th overall to draft the 34th-ranked player in the draft. Simons is coming straight out of high school. He spent a year playing against questionable competition with IMG Academy in Florida, and is at least two years from competing with NBA players, according to Givony. But if he develops as Portland and many others expect, Portland fans will be forever grateful. But right now, Trent is Portland’s immediate reason for hope.
Seven-footer Moritz Wagner is a fine pick at 25th overall to replace Brook Lopez when his contract expires at the end of this season, and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, the Lakers’ 47th pick, can shoot it. But the real reason Lakers fans have hope is because of almost $62 million in cap space to offer LeBron James and/or others, and/or, perhaps pay Kawhi Leonard if the Spurs feel the Lakers have the pieces to make an acceptable deal.
My cousin and I both texted “Great pick” simultaneously after Boston filled an immediate need by selecting power forward and 12th-ranked player in the draft, Robert Williams III, at 27th overall. Concerns over Williams’ knee precipitated his fall to Boston, but there probably isn’t a better place for him to land. He’s already a great shot blocker, but Brad Stevens will get the most out of him defensively, as he does everyone. Williams can already come off the bench to spell Al Horford without being a liability given his pick-and-roll potential and passing ability.
You might think Warriors fans don’t need reason for hope, but you’re wrong. This championship Warriors squad was almost done-in by its lack of depth. Golden State addressed that lack of depth with Jacob Evans, who fits perfectly in the Warriors’ positionless basketball lifestyle. He’s played point guard, shoots it well, and dished dimes twice as often as he turned it over in three college seasons at Cincinnati. He’s seasoned, so he should see minutes right away.
Yes, Nets fans have reason for hope, and his name is Dzanan Musa. Despite Brooklyn’s pick from Toronto being at the end of the first round, Brooklyn still ended up with one of the draft’s better scorers, who fell to the Nets because he refused to allow NBA teams to stash him on a professional team overseas. He wants to play in the NBA as soon as possible, which could be very soon given his 22-points-per-game average per 40 minutes against top European competition at the tender age of 18. He’s no Doncic, but he can and will undoubtedly score in streaks and can and will give Nets reason for hope and reasons to cheer.
The Nets used their second-round picks to select high-risk, high-reward talents in small forward Rodions Kurucs and shooting guard Hamidou Diallo, who they traded to Oklahoma City. Kurucs, of Latvia, struggled to stay on the floor with Barcelona, battling injuries and ultimately playing sparingly with the second team. Kuruc became a legitimate option for Brooklyn thanks to negotiations that lowered his buyout with Barcelona. Before his injuries, Kurucs was considered a lottery pick, so there’s plenty of potential there.
Bruce Brown was the only selection the Pistons made in the 2018 NBA Draft at 42nd overall. Brown was Miami’s elite defender and one of the best available in the draft, but before his sophomore season was interrupted by injuries, he was as close to a lottery pick lock as they come, displaying uncanny scoring and shooting ability that he has since struggled to summon. While he’s almost 22, Brown’s lost scoring and shooting abilities don’t need to be found for him to contribute to the Pistons in 2018-19, but his career as a role player will require him to knock down shots eventually.
If you thought Houston had plenty of open looks last season, just wait until point guard De’Anthony Melton comes off the bench for Chris Paul or James Harden this season. Melton had a knack for finding the open man at USC, averaging 5.1 assists and just 2.6 turnovers per 40 minutes as a freshman. He can also defend multiple positions, forces turnovers and rebounds the basketball like a power forward. According to ESPN’s analytics model, Melton was ranked 13th overall. He was selected 46th overall.
Penn State point guard Tony Carr, the Pelicans 51st overall draft pick, isn’t going to lift New Orleans over Golden State and Houston with his defensive ability. But judging from the Pelicans’ play without DeMarcus Cousins, lost to an Achilles injury, New Orleans is better off without Boogie. That’s not a knock on Cousins’ game; it’s just a fact. The Pelicans were better defensively on the perimeter, and Anthony Davis is better when he’s running the show, especially with a long shooter like Nikola Mirotic to whom to dish on his dribble drives. The Pelicans were better on both ends of the floor without Boogie, so offering him a five-year, max deal coming off the most threatening injury to a basketball career would be a poor business decision. The Pelicans should feel no shame for telling Boogie to begone. It’s what’s best for the team, and he’ll have no problem finding work. I hear Dallas is interested.
The Thunder drafted two players Thursday night, but neither is as important as Paul George is to Oklahoma City. Word is George could stay in OKC because he likes Russell Westbrook’s character. Westbrook went to bat for George after he was snubbed by coaches when deciding All-Star Team reserves, and that meant a lot to George. But the Thunder need more than just George to improve upon last season’s first-round exit to a soundtrack performed by the Utah Jazz orchestra led by maestro Ricky Rubio and carried by young soloist Donovan Mitchell. If the Thunder hope to drown out that music and compete with the West’s best, their big three has to be a big three, not a big two. I’m obviously talking to you, Carmelo.
In two seasons, Anthony has gone from a 2.9 VORP to a -1.1 VORP. It was the first season Anthony was less valuable than a replacement player, and some of that is likely due to changing teams and going from first option to third option. But this has not been a sudden fall for Carmelo. His final season in New York resulted in just a 0.8 VORP despite being the go-to guy. Anthony’s defense was the problem in 2016-17 and has been progressively regressing as you’d expect from a man who’s played 16 seasons. Playing two fewer minutes per game lifted Anthony’s defensive rating last season, but he had the worst season shooting the ball in his career. Carmelo’s effective field goal percentage was right on his career average, and his three-point shooting percentage was actually better than his career average. But his straight field goal percentage was 22 points lower than that of his rookie year, and his 76.7-percent shooting from the charity stripe last season was 10 points lower than that of his rookie year. Both were career lows. Somewhere between New York and Oklahoma City, Carmelo lost his legendary mid-range game and free-throw stroke.
Help is on the way, though, and the best help always comes on the defensive end, where Virginia’s Devon Hall shines. He was one of the best defensive guards in college basketball and the best one on the best defensive team in the country. Regardless of whether his offensive efficiency in his surprising senior season was skewed by Virginia’s scheme, Thunder head coach Billy Donovan is going to love subbing Hall for Westbrook when he needs a breather. Hall hit threes at a 43-percent clip and dished three assists per turnover in his senior season. No scheme makes the ball go in the basket, and schemes don’t turn the ball over, making Hall a good replacement for unrestricted free agent Raymond Felton, especially at 53rd overall.
Joining OKC’s rookie class is small forward Kevin Hervey, selected four picks after Hall. Hervey was whispered as a potential lottery pick if not for tearing both of his ACLs. He’s big enough to play strong forward, but can hit spot-up threes, too, and he rebounds the ball really well, averaging 11.6 per 40 minutes over four years at UT-Arlington. That’s likely what the Thunder are after. While Oklahoma City led the league in offensive rebounds per game, they were 26th on the defensive boards. Hervey should help OKC climb out of the bottom third in that category and serve as a serviceable stretch four coming off the bench for Patrick Patterson.
After the draft concluded, OKC acquired Hamidou Diallo, the 45th overall pick, from Brooklyn, in a deal that can’t be completed until July 6, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Diallo is dedicated to his craft and fits the physical mold of an ideal wing, with a seven-foot wingspan and good shooting mechanics. He struggled mightily at Kentucky last year, but he’s only 19 years old, so there’s plenty of time for the Thunder to mold Diallo’s NBA game.
The Heat didn’t have a pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, but they and their fans probably have the best reason for hope: living in Miami, which LeBron also loves. But Miami doesn’t have the cap space to add LeBron in free agency. In fact, the Heat are $19 million and change over the cap, according to Sportrac.
The Heat might not have the pieces to acquire LeBron in a sign-and-trade deal either, since Hassan Whiteside’s value plunged in the playoffs and since the Heat would have to dump salary to add what is likely to be the largest contract in NBA history – $205 million over five years. The Heat do have first-round picks in 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 to sweeten a trade proposal. They have just two second-round picks with which to work in 2022 and 2025, however. That should be enough to get Dan Gilbert salivating, but the money has to match, and neither team can take on salary, which complicates things thoroughly.
So despite two teams having no cap space and very short lists of valuable prospects to offer in a trade, here we are once again speculating that LeBron James will move to Miami. Why? Because it’s Miami, and anything can happen on South Beach. “Don't get me wrong, Chi-town got it goin' on, and New York is the city that we know don't sleep. And we all know that L.A. and Philly stay jiggy, but on the sneak, Miami bringin' heat for real.” Even though the Heat don’t have the money and might not have the prospects to acquire LeBron, they have two things working for them.
First, the City of Miami is “bringin’ heat for real,” as Will Smith so eloquently uttered. That heat scalds the eyes of those unfamiliar with the steamy sights of South Beach. “Ladies half-dressed, fully equipped,” screaming out “LeBron, we loved your last ‘ship.” That white-hot heat burns the nose like pure cocaine and brings tears to bloodshot, sunglassed eyes. “Everyday like a mardi gras, everybody party all day, no work all play, okay?” The heat Miami’s bringing is so hot you’ll forget you’re at work, regardless of occupation. The heat Miami is sending LeBron in Cleveland is too hot to merely be a warm front. The heat emanating from the City of Miami is so hot, Pat Riley doesn’t even have to sell the City of Miami, or the Heat, to anyone. Just visit once and you’ll never want to leave. “Everytime I come I always wind up stayin’.” Miami sells itself, and the heat has LeBron reminiscing, but he isn’t sweating, because he’s in control, which is the second thing the Heat have going for them.
Dan Gilbert will try to accomodate LeBron, not because he feels he owes it to him after how he handled LeBron’s first departure from Cleveland, but because it’s in the best interest of the Cavaliers. If LeBron wants to leave he’s going to leave, but if the Cavs can get something, anything, instead of losing LeBron via free agency for nothing, Gilbert will take it. If James wants out of Cleveland but wants to go to a team without the cap space to sign him in free agency, the Cavaliers will get whatever they can to accommodate the Angel from Akron, Blocker of Shots and Courier of Cleveland Rings. He’s already made the impossible happen, so there’s no reason why LeBron can’t make something like the biggest blockbuster trade in sports history happen. James would be doing Gilbert a favor by agreeing to a sign-and-trade.
First, we must rid ourselves of all assumptions. Nothing is off the table, no player untouchable. We can’t assume Cavaliers’ general manager Koby Altman isn’t willing to take on Whiteside and his massive contract spanning this year and next. Not too long ago general managers all over the league would have welcomed Whiteside and his contract. But more importantly and perhaps more interesting, we can’t assume LeBron doesn’t want to play with Whiteside. Quite the opposite could be true.
What LeBron sees in Whiteside might be a personal challenge for himself to mentor a player and silence the critics who say James doesn’t make his teammates better like Michael Jordan did. LeBron might see a solid rim-protector and pick-and-roll, alley-oop partner who’s gotten a bad rep for speaking his mind rather than biting his tongue, the latter of which I’ve been told by licensed therapists to be unhealthy and potentially dangerous. Maybe Whiteside finds comfort or relief in expressing his thoughts. Getting it off his chest could put him at ease. Maybe his struggles on the court stem from his struggle to contain his thoughts and emotions at the behest of the organization. Simply put, we don’t know and can’t assume what LeBron or the Cavaliers or the Heat are willing to do, but we can venture a guess as to the names Cleveland would have at the top of their wishlist.
Rebuilds begin with youth, and Justise Winslow, 21, and Bam Adebayo, 20, are the Heat’s youngest studs. Winslow could replace James in Cleveland’s starting lineup and benefit from playing more minutes, but Adebayo’s offensive rating of 116 was tops on the team amongst players logging more than 300 minutes. He’s especially attractive because he comes with three years of team control. The problem is neither of them make much money, which necessitates the trade of Whiteside just to make the money work. His $25.5 million salary paired with Winslow’s $3.5 million and Adebayo’s $3 million gets us to just $32 million, and we haven’t even taken on any salary from Cleveland yet. So, Cleveland would likely be forced to choose between Winslow and Adebayo, taking Adebayo to pair with Whiteside. That’s $28.5 million, so the Heat need to dump another considerable contract to make the money work. Enter the Johnsons.
Tyler and James Johnson are statistical twins playing different positions. James is slightly better defensively, but Tyler scores a bit more. James is the better shooter inside the arc, and Tyler is better from outside. Cleveland will likely decide between the two based on age. Tyler is 25 and James is 30, so to Cleveland Tyler goes, taking his $19 million contract with him. That gets us over the money hump with $6.5 million for Miami to spread across two players from Cleveland.
Larry Nance Jr. would make sense given Miami’s loss of Adebayo at power forward. Nance makes just over $2 million. A center to replace Whiteside would also make sense, so welcome to Miami, Ante Zizic, and bring your $2 million contract.
Cleveland will no doubt want a first-round pick in the immediate future, because regardless of Nance and Zizic, LeBron is worth more than Hassan Whiteside, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Johnson – much more. So the Heat will send over their 2019 first-round pick, and they’ll have to get something back that doesn’t bust the cap as per NBA trade rules.
The only player left in Cleveland with a salary small enough for Miami to absorb is small forward Okaro White. So Miami absorbs $46,770,104 and sheds $47,635,473. LeBron takes his talents to South Beach, but this time brings Nance, Zizic and White with him. That can’t be right. LeBron is going to demand something. There’s one player he wants to bring with him whose gravity leaves James open despite being grounded and stationary. He knows his Miami teammates would benefit from that gravity, too. That gravity belongs to Kyle Korver, the man whose very presence on the floor improves his team more so than any other player in basketball – LeBron included. No reason to struggle when you can get open shots standing still.
If LeBron James is the Sun, Kyle Korver is Earth’s Gravity, subtly manipulating the orbit of the Sun’s opponents, the defenders of the Outer Rim, to allow the sun to shine through limited traffic, basking Earth with superstar rays of light that literally brighten the days of everyone and everything on Earth, except Gravity. And while Gravity never catches nor reflects the Sun’s spotlight, Gravity prefers to remain in the shadows, unnoticed, grounded, taking silent pleasure in his work regardless of whom the Sun allows to shine brightest that day, because he knows without him, they would all fall off the Earth to be lost in space, where the Sun can’t even save them. But Gravity would never do such a thing because he’s a team player...and because the Sun scares the hell out of him.
There are a few ways Korver can come along with LeBron to Miami. The easiest way would be for James to take a pay cut in the amount of Korver’s $7.56 million contract, basically paying Korver out of his own pocket this season, which might be worth it to LeBron given Korver’s Gravity. I only know what I see on TV, and Korver seems to be LeBron’s favorite teammate, but James isn’t gifting one of these homes to Korver.
LeBron could also take a paycut in the amount necessary to make the money work for both sides. So if Miami needs to dump $5 million in salary to make the deal work, LeBron takes a $5-million pay cut. Simple, except all of these trade details would have to be negotiated before LeBron negotiates his contract. If you don’t think LeBron has people working on the exact “what-if” scenarios similar to what I’m investigating, you don’t know LeBron. He prepares, and he’ll hand-deliver his trade request(s) to Altman and Gilbert, complete with perfect arithmetic and adhering to NBA rules.
So what about the hard way? LeBron’s and Korver’s contracts total $48,560,000, which again necessitates the trade of Whiteside’s salary. And if Cleveland won’t budge on Adebayo, and they shouldn’t, the Heat have to really focus on sending ugly salaries Cleveland’s way instead of the quality players the Cavaliers might value.
Whiteside’s and Adebayo’s contracts total $25,434,263, and Tyler Johnson brings the total to $44,679,633. With about $4 million to go and contracts yet to absorb, the Heat could send Josh Richardson packing for Cleveland. That brings Miami’s total salaries traded to $54,046,833, leaving the Heat $5,486,833 to spread across two players. Again, Nance and Zizic make the most sense, totalling $4,225,151.
With $1,261,682 in cap space to spare, Miami gets LeBron, Korver, Nance and Zizic for Whiteside, Adebayo, Tyler Johnson and Richardson. If Cleveland requires a first-round pick to complete the trade, which it definitely should, Miami can only absorb part of White’s contract in exchange, so swapping draft picks would be necessary. It’ll be awhile before Pat Riley can actually use whatever pick the Heat get in return because Cleveland only has second-round picks in 2023 and 2025. When it comes to draft picks, Riley just needs to do what it takes. You know what you’re getting with LeBron James; you don’t with any draft pick. Miami’s first-rounders in 2019 and 2022 for Cleveland’s second-rounders in 2023 and 2025 should do it.
The only issue with this trade is Cleveland taking on $1,261,682 in salary while already $16.5 million over the luxury tax cap. While it’s a modest amount, I’m not sure if it would fly with the Commissioner’s Office. I am sure Miami would happily send over the difference, but the rules would require them to get something of value back. Gilbert would no doubt like to dump contracts himself, but his contracts are even worse than Miami’s.
If Gilbert wants to get under the luxury tax cap, a third team with cap space will be required. Teams with the cap space to take on the $16,521,661 Cleveland would have to dump in order to avoid paying the luxury tax are Atlanta (who would probably require the acquisition of Dennis Schroder), Chicago (probably more interested in making a run at free agents), Dallas (might use cap space to get DeMarcus Cousins), Houston (dedicated to free agency), Los Angeles Lakers (dedicated to free agency), Philadelphia (dedicated to free agency), Phoenix (perhaps) and Sacramento (perhaps). Let’s investigate.
Sacramento might be willing to take on Tristan Thompson’s two-year, $36 million contract with Kosta Koufos an unrestricted free agent after the season and Willie Cauley-Stein a restricted free agent at the end of the season. The Kings have a familiar face to LeBron in shooting guard Iman Shumpert, but he’s only under contract for one year. That might be the deal Gilbert and Altman have to swallow to avoid paying the luxury tax and Thompson’s contract. Buddy Hield is also stashed on the Kings’ roster and comes with two years of team control before becoming a restricted free agent, but the Cavaliers would probably have to sweeten that deal a bit, and they’re low on sweeteners.
Phoenix could also accommodate Tristan Thompson, as center Alex Len is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. The same goes for Tyson Chandler after this season. As far as players the Suns could send back to Cleveland, both the Cavaliers and Heat would probably take Devin Booker, but they might not be able to coax Phoenix out of its best player last year. If so, it’s going to take a lot more than Tristan Thompson. Sacramento seems to be the one to invite into the bedroom, and Shumpert might be the one Cleveland lets under the covers. They’re at least familiar with each other, so it shouldn’t get weird. Cleveland doesn’t have to trade Shumpert to Miami, though. He could replace Korver to give Cleveland three shooting guards, and Miami would roll with Korver, Dion Waiters and Rodney McGruder. If the Kings don't feel they're getting enough to absorb Thompson's contract, Miami could swap draft picks with the Kings or send a pick in exchange for cash.
Is there a fair deal involving LeBron James? Of course. Is this it? Probably not, but it gives you an idea of how difficult it will be for LeBron to make the maximum amount of money and leave Cleveland for Miami. I imagine it’s hard for Gilbert to say no to a man who single-handedly, quite literally, delivered his franchise’s first ever championship and more than doubled the value of the franchise. And he did all this after Gilbert publicly berated him as selfish for doing nothing more than exercising a right he earned to become a free agent and choose where he wanted to live and work. Golden State needed four stars to triple the Warriors’ value.
If Gilbert is in it for the money, the time to sell is before LeBron leaves. I wouldn’t be surprised if LeBron’s plan is to leave Cleveland, wait for the Cavaliers’ value to fall in his absence before buying the franchise and becoming the first owner/player in professional sports. Then he can reap the rewards Gilbert enjoyed off his name being attached to the franchise, and King James could finish his reign at home. For now, all we can do is speculate while we wait for The Decision: Part III.
This was originally published at Grandstand Central, where we cover sports from unique angles.
A great American tradition born of the struggle to fill great American ballparks with great American baseball fans is dying. The ballpark giveaway is giving way to greed.
The Ohio Supreme Court heard arguments last Wednesday in a dispute over taxes on promotional items purchased by the Cincinnati Reds and offered to fans through promotional ticket packages. Ohio state law exempts companies from paying taxes on items they buy and resell, but the issue is whether promotional items like bobbleheads are being sold as part of a ticket package or given away in an effort to increase ticket sales. Simply put, if the team gives away bobbleheads, they pay tax. If they sell them with the ticket, they do not.
Regardless of whether the Reds’ techniques are legal or not, the attempt to avoid paying $88,000 in state taxes is pretty insensitive given the Reds’ recent history, both on and off the field. The construction of Great American Ball Park cost Hamilton County taxpayers $349 million and deprived federal taxpayers of $142 million in revenue — the third-most costly of any Major League Baseball stadium according to a Brookings Institute study. The Reds share responsibility with the Cincinnati Bengals for burying Ohio’s Hamilton County in debt, resulting in cuts to social services, including the sale of a hospital, and forcing Hamilton County Commissioners to refinance $376 million of stadium bond debt in 2016. Property owners in Hamilton County were promised 30 percent of the revenue raised by the half-cent increase to the sales tax in the form of reduced tax bills, but the county has rarely had the money to pay the stadium debt and offer the full tax rollback.
Meanwhile, the Reds could go from increasing attendance by giving away items for which they once paid tax to profiting from tax-free items while also increasing attendance. And they’re not the only ones.
The Minnesota Twins are also offering more of these promotional ticket packages and fewer giveaways after winning a similar case back in 1998. Like Ohio, “goods and services purchased solely to resell, lease or rent in the regular course of business” are tax exempt in Minnesota. In fact, most states allow businesses to purchase items tax-free as long as those items are to be resold. So this is only the beginning, and already, great American ballparks are turning giveaways into takeaways, likely turning a profit on what was a cheap means of advertising and now is a cheaper means of advertising.
According to a sales representative at Associated Premium Corporation, a preferred vendor of MLB promotional items, a seven-inch bobblehead purchased in bulk exceeding 10,000 units could cost a ballclub between $3 and $5. Markups on promotional ticket packages are considerably higher than that, and in some ballparks, they vary by seat location.
Senior manager of group sales for the Twins, Phil McMullen, informed me that the prices for their promotional ticket packages are based on the price of their group tickets, which explains why the markup for the promotional item appears to vary by seat location when compared to buying a single game ticket alone. The same cannot be said for the Reds.
The June 19 promotional bobblehead in Cincinnati is available at three different price points in three different sections of the ballpark. The promotional ticket package is $25 per “View Level” ticket, $55 for a seat in the “Field Box” section and $80 for an “Infield Box” seat. The price of a ticket to the same game in the “View Level” section is $17. A field box seat is $41, and infield box seats range from $65 to $68. So the same bobblehead costs $8 when purchased with a “View Level” ticket, $14 when purchased with a “Field Box” ticket and between $12 and $15 when purchased with an “Infield Box” ticket. Assuming the “Field Box” price is based on one ticket price, Cincinnati fans purchasing the promotional ticket package will pay three different prices for the exact same product in the same store.
“It’s consistently very close…the difference is negligible,” Reds’ group sales representative Kristen Meyers said of the varying costs for the promotional items. She attempted to explain the difference in price to accommodate fans buying tickets with exact change, but the Twins’ ticket prices are also full-dollar amounts and their cost of the promotional items don’t vary by seat location.
Minimal research revealed that the Twins and Reds aren’t the only Major League Baseball teams selling promotional items at varying prices depending on seat location. On June 23, the Colorado Rockies are selling a promotional ticket package available in five different sections of the ballpark that includes a University of Nebraska hat. Based on the Rockies’ group ticket prices, fans will pay either $8, $11 or $12 for the hat, depending on their seat location. In Milwaukee on July 7, fans will pay four different prices for a bobblehead depending on their seat location.
If MLB teams are going to sell promotional items on a sliding scale to make those items more accessible to lower-income fans, that should be advertised and owned. But forcing fans who pay more for their tickets to also pay more for a promotional item without their knowledge is theft. While buying a promotional ticket package might be preferable to standing in line for hours with no guarantee of scoring a giveaway item, don’t think for a moment you’re taking advantage of a business desperate to sell tickets. Quite the opposite is true, and the degree to which they fleece you varies as much as the prices of the promotional items they claim to sell in order to avoid paying state tax. But if you must have a promotional item offered with one of these promotional ticket packages, you’re likely best off buying the cheapest seats.
Each week at Foul Play-by-Play we cover the law-related, sports stories, including the Colangelo Twitter scandal, and we dive deeper into a possible cheerleaders' union with former union rep and sports-labor expert Al Neal of PeoplesWorld.org and GrandstandCentral.com. Here are your headlines, "Cheats of the Week," "Historically Foul Play" and "Statistically Significant Foul Player" for the week ending June 10.
Bryan Colangelo resigned on Thursday as president of basketball operations for the Philadelphia 76ers after his wife admitted to using Twitter accounts to criticize players and support her husband. Sixers coach Brett Brown will oversee basketball operations on an interim basis.
An independent investigation found Colangelo to be the source of the sensitive information shared by his wife, Barbara Bottini. Colangelo said his wife was “operating without his consent” and that “at no point did I ever purposefully or directly share any sensitive, non-public, club-related information with her.” So how did she come across this information? You say you didn’t directly share sensitive information, so sas she getting it from someone else in the organization? You say you didn’t share it on purpose, so was it shared in the throes of passion?
Barbara taking the blame on this obviously doesn’t make Bryan innocent. She can’t be guilty without having an accomplice giving her the information. It’s a miracle, frankly, Bryan Colangelo wasn’t fired. The Sixers are either being incredibly nice or didn’t want to file the paperwork to fire the man because sharing trade information is a fireable offense.
I don’t see Colangelo working again, regardless of this being a resignation and not a firing. Even if he didn’t know about the Twitter accounts, he still shared sensitive information with someone he shouldn’t. When there’s a big trade on the table at work, you don’t go home at lunch and spill the beans to your wife before it’s final. You don’t spill the beans to anyone outside the organizations involved.
More than $322,000 was wagered on the first day of legal sports betting in Delaware, Tuesday. Delaware Governor John Carney made the first wager and won, risking $10 on the Philadelphia Phillies to beat the Chicago Cubs. The Phillies won 6-1. That must have paid well.
Delaware was already offering parlay betting during the federal ban since 2009 and built sportsbooks within its casinos, waiting for the end of the federal ban. It’s estimated that $350 million to $760 million could be wagered annually if online betting is fully implemented.
The mother of Zeke Upshaw, former swingman for Detroit Pistons’ G League affiliate Grand Rapids Drive who collapsed on the court and died two days later, has filed a lawsuit accusing the NBA and the Detroit Pistons of negligence.
Upshaw, 26, collapsed during a game in Grand Rapids on March 24 and died two days later of what a Grand Rapids medical examiner called a sudden cardiac death with cardiac abnormalities. Upshaw had a “slightly enlarged” heart, which is not entirely unusual in athletes and could be unrelated to his death, but the Grand Rapids team doctor was not at the arena when Upshaw collapsed on March 24, so life-saving measures were not attempted, no CPR initiated and no defibrillator used, but Upshaw died two days later.
Five former NFL cheerleaders sued the Houston Texans on Friday, accusing the franchise of paying the women less than the $7.25 per hour they were due, not compensating them for making public appearances and creating a workplace where the women were threatened with termination for voicing complaints.
This isn’t the first time NFL cheerleaders have sued their employers. I wrote a column for the Livingston Enterprise about the Oakland Raiders’ cheerleaders who sued citing similar allegations back in 2014 or so, and spoke to their attorney who recommended NFL cheerleaders unionize. During my painstaking research of NFL cheerleaders, I found that each NFL team employs between 32 and 42 cheerleaders. With 32 NFL teams that brings the total number of cheerleaders employed by the NFL to just over 1,000, which isn’t enough to form a union with any real bargaining power, so this union will have to be formed of cheerleaders and dancers across all sports.
There are usually about 20 Laker Girls employed every season, but the Timberwolves have just 13 dancers. If each NBA team has about 15 dancers, that’s another 450 potential union members.
Most hockey teams employ “ice girls” to shovel the ice during breaks in the action, and many have expressed similar working conditions cited by NFL cheerleaders, according to a 2014 story by Mother Jones that actually resulted in the Flyers eliminating their ice girls and then bringing them back when the men who replaced them were quite literally booed off the ice.
The Vegas Golden Knights held auditions to fill 40 positions on its ice, cheer and gameday crews, however, so these jobs aren’t going anywhere. With another 30 teams employing at least another dozen entertainers, and I’ll get to why it’s 30 and not 31 in the Historically Foul Play segment, that’s 360 more potential union members, bringing the total to just over 1,800. If we include mascots in the union, there’s at least another 123 union members to get us closer to 2,000. But won’t there always be cheaper bodies to objectify regardless of whether a cheerleaders’ union is formed and regardless of how encompassing its membership is? I just don’t think the backlash from having less attractive or less entertaining cheerleaders would affect the NFL owners’ bottom line.
Colts defensive end Chris McCain was charged with battery stemming from an incident that occurred in January in Los Angeles, according to TMZ. McCain is accused of spitting on a woman and “forcefully grabbing her neck.” He’ll likely face a suspension.
Ottawa Senators assistant general manager Randy Lee is accused of inappropriately touching and making lewd comments toward a hotel shuttle driver while in Buffalo for the NHL's scouting combine. He was charged with second-degree harassment on Friday after being arrested and spending the night in jail. If Bryan Colangelo thought he had problems, at least he’s not Randy Lee. It has to be considerably more difficult to get a job as a sexual harasser than a trade-secrets sharing pillow-talker, right?
I promised I’d tell you why just 30 NHL teams employ “ice girls,” and here’s why. In December of 2007, the media’s and masses’ eyes were affixed to a New York Knicks scandal involving former coach Isiah Thomas, who was found by a jury to be guilty of sexual harassment. The plaintiff, a former Knicks’ executive, was awarded $11.5 million in damages, paid by the owners of Madison Square Garden. But that wasn’t the only foul play in the Garden at the time.
Three days after the Thomas verdict, a settlement between Madison Square Garden and a former captain of the New York Rangers’ cheerleader squad flew under the radar. (Court documents of lawsuit filed.) No details were released, but the accuser alleged that her supervisor, Ryan Halkatt, told her which skaters had to lose weight or “stuff their bras” to appear more alluring. That was the last year the Rangers had “ice girls.”
Sticking with hockey, the Washington Capitals won the Stanley Cup for the first time in franchise history. Their statistically significant foul player is, of course, Tom Wilson, who spent twice as much time in the penalty box as the next most penalized player on his team. His 187 penalty minutes during the regular season was just 25 off the pace set by Florida’s Micheal Haley this year. Haley’s 212 penalty minutes in a single season doesn’t even put him in the top 250 all-time. The NHL record for penalty minutes accessed in a season is 472 by Dave Schultz in the 1974-75 season. That’s more than five games spent in the penalty box.
Bronze medalist: Julian Edelman is appealing a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy. Edelman has reportedly taken “hundreds of tests” and never tested positive before.
Silver medalist: Free agent left-handed reliever Fernando Abad received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for Stanozolol. A lengthy appeals process will make this a short ban for Abad, as the suspension began upon the filing of the appeal. Any team who signs Abad knows he must sit out most of this month, but given the overuse of Ryan Pressly, Abad would be a great fit for the Minnesota Twins. Their splits work out well together, as Abad has been more effective against lefties in his career and Pressly righties, with neither being that bad in either situation. If you’re Paul Molitor, you have to like being able to bring in Abad when two of the next three batters are lefties and Pressly when two of the three are righties.
Gold medalist: Boston Red Sox fans used the flashlights on their phones to distract Detroit Tigers hitters, angering manager Ron Gardenhire, who we know runs hot. The foul play caused a short delay in the seventh inning as security asked fans in the center field sections of Fenway Park to stop using the lights on their cell phones to distract batters for obvious safety reasons. Red Sox manager Alex Cora called it “a good weapon,” which it very well could be if someone were to be hit in the face with a fastball because they’ve been blinded by a flashlight.
Ehire Adrianza has no business playing shortstop everyday, and Gregorio Petit has no business on an MLB roster. Ryan LaMarre should be nothing more than a fourth outfielder and pinch runner. And it’s way past time for the Minnesota Twins to call up Nick Gordon.
On Wednesday night in Minneapolis, Ehire Adrianza started at shortstop because Logan Morrison’s back was still a bit stiff, moving Miguel Sano to first base and Eduardo Escobar to third. Miguel playing first makes a lot of sense, but Adrianza being in the lineup with Gordon hitting .357 at AAA Rochester just doesn’t compute.
Adrianza even had two doubles and drove in a run before booting a ball that led to a four-run sixth inning. Adrianza wasn’t given an error on the play. How I don’t know, but it was the play that forced the Twins to go to its bullpen, specifically, the overused Ryan Pressly. Pressly has appeared in 31 of the Twins’ 58 games, and he’s starting to show signs of fatigue. In his last three appearances, he’s allowed three earned runs over two innings, allowing four hits and a walk.
The Pressly problem I’ll save for another rant. This rant is about never seeing Gregorio Petit and Ehire Adrianza in Twins uniforms again. Even if Gordon struggles to hit in the bigs, which hasn’t been a problem for him at any level, he’s better defensively and on the bases than Petit and Adrianza right now.
Adrianza is three runs below average over 1,200 innings at shortstop. Petit is 48 runs below average over 1,200 innings. And while I don’t have access to the same stat for Gordon, Baseball Reference does tell me his range factor per game (3.46) is higher than Adrianza’s (3.28) and Petit’s (2.67).
It’s also safe to assume Gordon to be a better base runner than both Adrianza and Petit. I can’t tell you how many runs Gordon is worth on the bases, but I can tell you he’s faster than Adrianza and Petit. Baseball Prospectus’ editor Aaron Gleeman indicates as much with regards to Adrianza on Twitter.
As a slight, switch-hitting shortstop, it's natural to assume Ehire Adrianza is a good, fast runner. He's not.
He's below average, according to both Sprint Speed and Baseball Prospectus' baserunning metric.
Paul Molitor has used him 10 times as a pinch-runner since last season.
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) June 6, 2018
Adrianza and Petit have each cost the Twins a run on the bases this season and have combined for three stolen bases on four attempts. Gordon is seven of 11 on stolen base attempts this year.
I know what you’re thinking: “It doesn’t matter how good Gordon is on the bases if he’s not on base.” Well, his batting average at AAA is higher than Adrianza’s on-base percentage and Petit’s batting average. Gordon is hitting .357 with an on-base percentage of .379. Adrianza’s on-base percentage sat at .281 at the time of this writing, and Petit’s average is .308 in 30 plate appearances.
Assuming Morrison and Joe Mauer become available soon, which seems to be the case, you might think Adrianza’s playing time will diminish, and that’s true. But until Byron Buxton is healthy, which could take considerable time, LaMarre will still play center field, where Max Kepler is 35 runs above average over 1,200 innings to LaMarre’s -56. That’s a difference of 91 runs over 135 games.
I don’t know about you, but I’d also rather have Nick Gordon’s bat in the lineup instead of LaMarre’s. LaMarre might be hitting a respectable .288 with a .681 OPS, but just three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. Consider this:
I think this lineup is better defensively, better on the bases and better at the plate than Paul Molitor’s, but I’m not the reigning American League Manager of the Year. Molitor might not be able to convince president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine to call up Gordon, and I don't know what they're doing claiming Taylor Motter, but Molitor should be in their ear every day, because it’s way past time for the Minnesota Twins to call up Nick Gordon.
This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay,com.
Each week here at Foul Play-by-Play we cover the week's law-related, sports stories. So here are the cheats, cheap shots, and alleged criminals in sports for the week of May 28.
The Philadelphia 76ers launched an independent investigation into the Twitter usage of president of basketball operations Bryan Colangelo on Wednesday after a report by The Ringer cited circumstantial evidence indicating Colangelo allegedly using anonymous Twitter accounts to defend his work and criticize his current and former players.
Tweets from those accounts alleged by a source cited by The Ringer to belong to Colangelo questioned Joel Embiid's ego, blamed Markelle Fultz's shooting woes on a former mentor of the No. 1 overall draft pick, pushed a theory that a possible Jahlil Okafor trade fell apart because he failed a physical, and called Nerlens Noel a "selfish punk."
Colangelo has denied the Tweets are his, going so far as to call Embiid to express his innocence. Colangelo’s wife has since been implicated as possible owner and operator of the Twitter accounts.
The mother of Zeke Upshaw, former swingman for Detroit Pistons’ G League affiliate Grand Rapids Drive who collapsed on the court and died two days later, has filed a lawsuit accusing the NBA and the Detroit Pistons of negligence.
Upshaw, 26, collapsed during a game in Grand Rapids on March 24 and died two days later of what a Grand Rapids medical examiner called a sudden cardiac death with cardiac abnormalities. Upshaw had a “slightly enlarged” heart, which is not entirely unusual in athletes and could be unrelated to his death, but the Grand Rapids team doctor was not at the arena when Upshaw collapsed on March 24, so life-saving measures were not attempted, no CPR initiated and no defibrillator used, but Upshaw died two days later.
Five former NFL cheerleaders sued the Houston Texans on Friday, accusing the franchise of paying the women less than the $7.25 per hour they were due, not compensating them for making public appearances and creating a workplace where the women were threatened with termination for voicing complaints.
This isn’t the first time NFL cheerleaders have sued their employers. I wrote a column about the Oakland Raiders’ cheerleaders who sued citing similar allegations back in 2014, I think, and spoke to their attorney who recommended NFL cheerleaders unionize. I think these NFL owners continually take advantage of these women because there will always be a cheaper body to objectify, even if there was a cheerleaders’ union.
Tampa Bay Rays’ outfielder Carlos Gomez alleges that Major League Baseball targets older players and Latino players for drug testing in an interview for a Yahoo! Sports podcast the day after Mariners’ All-star Robinson Cano was suspended 80 games. Gomez said, “One month into the season I got like seven drug tests. Something like that. Between five or seven. That’s not right. We have a guy on the team who for sure hasn’t had one drug test.” Three days after coming off the disabled list, Gomez was again drug tested.
MLB defended its drug testing policies in a statement made to the Tampa Bay Times: "Our Joint Drug Program, which is negotiated with the Players Association, is independently administered and has random testing procedures in place with no regard for a player's birthplace, age, or any other factor," the league said. "Every aspect of the test selection process is randomized and de-identified, and every player is included each time random selection is conducted. This results in some players being tested more often than others, but, as a whole, MLB players are tested more frequently than any athletes in professional sports.”
Like Gomez, the three Major League players suspended for failing performance-enhancing drug tests are from the Dominican Republic. Gomez wants MLB to prove to him the process is randomized, and won’t believe it is until they do so. MLB isn’t required to reveal anything, though, and probably insulates itself from any wrongdoing by outsourcing the testing to an independent firm.
Dishonorable mention: San Francisco 49ers receiver Victor Bolden Jr. has been suspended for the first four games of the regular season for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy. Bolden is trying to make the team as a kick returner and has considerable competition.
Bronze medalist: Anthony Rizzo, last week’s Statistically Significant Foul Player for his uncanny ability to be hit by pitches, slid into the feet of catcher Elias Diaz of Pittsburgh to break up a double play. He was successful, as Diaz threw the ball into right field allowing two Cubs’ runners to score. While umpires on the field called it a clean play, reviewed it and upheld the call, Major League Baseball said the slide wasn’t legal. Rizzo clearly altered his path to contact the catcher, sliding late and well inside the baseline.
Silver medalist: Washington Capitals’ forward Tom Wilson blindsided Jon Marchessault of the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final. The hit came well after Marchessault had handled the puck, but Wilson, who has a history of questionable, physical play, avoided a suspension for the hit. Marchessault was unable to stay on the ice for the 4-on-4 that resulted from Wilson’s two-minute minor that should have probably been a five-minute major penalty.
Gold medalist: Wilson’s hit might have been the cheapest shot taken in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, but it wasn’t the most effective form of cheating used in the game. Vegas Golden Knight Ryan Reaves scored a game-tying goal in the third period as the result of a cross-check on Washington’s John Carlson. The goal was a quick response to the Capitals’ go-ahead goal scored just 91 seconds earlier, and swung the momentum back to the Knights.
Mel Bridgeman of the Flyers served 53 minutes in penalties in 1980 against the Islanders, the most by any player in one Stanley Cup Final. Chris Nilan of the Canadiens is next with 49 minutes in 1986. They play 60 minutes in a game if you’re unaware.
Vegas’s Erik Haula has spent 19 minutes in the penalty box during this Stanley Cup Final against the Washington Capitals, which is almost half as many minutes as he’s skated in the series.
Each week at Foul Play-by-Play, we cover the law-related, sports headlines, including the cheats, cheap shots and alleged criminals in sports. Here are the headlines, "Historically Foul Play," “Statistically Significant Foul Player,” and Cheats of the Week for the week of May 18-25.
The NFL owners adopted a new national anthem policy despite an official vote never taking place, according to Seth Wickersham, which he tweeted is “atypical for such a major resolution.” According to Jim Trotter of NFL.com, there were eight to 10 owners who, before the meetings, expressed support for keeping the league’s anthem policy “as is.” They believed the protests were fading and the league should instead focus on community work being done by players.
Regardless, it seems the resolution has been adopted by the NFL, and players who choose to be on the field for the national anthem must either “show respect” for the anthem and flag or the team will be fined. The resolution is intentionally vague, allowing NFL owners and the commissioners to determine what qualifies as respect on a case-by-case basis. So standing for the anthem with a fist in the air like Chris Long did to show solidarity for his protesting teammates would be a finable offense. Team owners can pass those fines onto the players, which will allow them to control the players. While New York Jets chairman Christopher Johnson volunteered to pay all fines incurred by Jets players for violating the policy, other owners aren’t expected to be as tolerant. And if an owners says “this team will pay anthem protest fines as a team” not too many players will be protesting.
Well the NFL Players' Association is already telling players to save their money for a 2021 lockout, when they next negotiate with owners on a collective bargaining agreement, during which the players could demand a more preferred anthem policy. That works perfectly for me, because I intend to stop watching football if the Vikings don’t win a Super Bowl in the next three years, and not because of anthem protests. I’m tired of watching seven seconds of action followed by 25 seconds of inaction. I’m tired of watching kickers and officials determine the outcomes of games. I’m tired of NFL replay, which will now be used to review ejections. And I’m tired of coaches punting on fourth and inches. But at least a catch is a catch again.
Olympic swimmer Ariana Kukors Smith is suing USA Swimming alleging a cover-up of her former coach's sexual abuse. Kukors Smith alleges that Sean Hutchison groomed her for sexual abuse when she was 13, started touching and kissing her when she was 16 and engaged in sexual activity with her when she was 17. Worse yet, she alleges the national governing body knew her former coach sexually abused her as early as 2005, when she was 16. The lawsuit alleges that officials did not report it to authorities and didn't protect Kukors Smith while shielding Hutchison and the image of USA Swimming.
It seems like a case similar to that of the Penn State/Jerry Sandusky scandal, except we know multiple Penn State employees witnessed Sandusky’s behavior with underage boys. In this case, USA Swimming hired a private investigator in 2010 to look into rumors of a relationship between the then-21 Kukors and Hutchison, who was 39, finding no misconduct after the two and others denied the relationship.
The Houston Astros cut suspended minor leaguer and former top prospect Jon Singleton because he couldn’t resist smoking cannabis. As an advocate for cannabis legalization and former holder of a medical cannabis prescription, I understand Singleton’s struggle. While cannabis withdrawals are minimal when compared to say opioids or even alcohol because the plant isn’t chemically addictive like tobacco or alcohol, a psychological addiction can occur. It’s not unlike an addiction to gaming machines.
When something makes you feel good, like getting into the bonus on a reel game, it triggers a release of dopamine by your brain. Dopamine is a neurotransmitter that helps control the brain's reward and pleasure centers. This release happens naturally all the time, even during exercise. Cannabis triggers a considerable dopamine release, so unlike nicotine, which is chemically and psychologically addictive, the cannabis user is addicted to good feelings achieved through cannabis consumption. So you and the cannabis user are actually addicted to the same thing. Only the triggers are different.
Just because it’s all in your head doesn’t make it easy to kick a psychological addiction, especially for those with addiction in their family history. I’m speculating here, but I’d bet that’s the case for Singleton, who substituted alcohol for cannabis after a stint in rehab following his second failed drug test -- the penalty for which is a 50-game suspension, unpaid. That’s almost $715,000 of Singleton’s $2 million annual salary, a figure considerably higher than what most minor leaguers make thanks to the Save America’s Pastime Act, which Major League Baseball snuck through Congress in 2016 to keep minor league baseball players exempt from federal minimum wage laws.
Most minor leaguers at the upper levels of the minor leagues like Singleton make $2,150 per month, according to a class-action lawsuit brought by minor leaguers challenging MLB’s minor league pay schedule. Given a 23-week regular season, that’s an annual salary of $12,362.50. A 50-game suspension for smoking pot would cost these players $4,415.18. As someone who’s lived on less than $8,000 a year, I wouldn’t recommend it unless you enjoy sweating through summer nights sleeping in your van, waking up wet in a borrowed tent failing miserably to withstand overnight thunderstorms, or living with your parents. But if you had to live on less that eight grand a year, I would recommend the van and then the tent over the parents. I don’t know your parents, and I’m sure they’re very nice people, but it doesn’t change the fact you’ll be sick of them within a week.
Lower-level minor leaguers who test positive for cannabis wouldn’t be able to afford a van. Their average salary is $1,100 per month, and an A-ball season is less than 12 weeks long, so a 50-game suspension for smoking weed would leave these 18- and 19-year-old kids with a measly $873.53.
Because of Singleton’s perceived potential, he was lucky to hold onto the money he did. He was the Astros’ top-rated prospect after the 2011 season, according to Baseball America. But he struggled mightily in his first 114 games in the bigs, never getting his batting average over .200.
Finally, the kicker: had he stuck in the bigs, he could have smoked all the pot he wanted. He would have been required to pay a small fine for each failed test, but he wouldn’t have been suspended and he wouldn’t have lost a single game check. The MLB Players’ Association negotiated for that in the collective bargaining agreement, but the MLBPA does not represent minor league ballplayers.
So the reason for both the harsh cannabis policy and poverty-level salaries in minor league baseball is the minor leaguers’ lack of bargaining power, which they could remedy by starting a union of their own. So why haven’t they? There are far more of them than there are major leaguers, and a walkout would collapse the minor league business model because the owners of those teams don’t pay their players’ salaries. MLB teams do. Are 6,500 minor leaguers just keeping their heads down with hopes of realizing that major league dream?
I think if a kid wants to risk his shot at a career in Major League Baseball to smoke weed just let her do so. I understand the employers’ interests in protecting their investments, and that they have the right to do just about whatever they want with regards to drug testing. Hell, if they wanted to they could make every player take a breathalyzer test before each plate appearance or a urinalysis between innings. But being barred from a new profession for roughly two months is more damaging to a young prospect’s career than unwinding after a brutal roadtrip with a joint, or substituting weed for booze when the team goes out after a big win. This policy does not protect the employers’ assets; it turns them into liabilities.
If you’re going to randomly test your employees for drug use in the name of protecting them and the game, stick to the performance enhancers like amphetamines, cocaine, and steroids, and the real drugs of abuse that are physically addictive, like amphetamines, cocaine, opioids, and alcohol. If you’re worried about players playing the game stoned, you need not worry, because cannabis is a hell of a performance inhibitor.
Our intramural softball team in college was called Bozeman Toast because we all burnt bud before gametime. There might have been one or two sober softballers out there, but they weren’t any good sober, either. The rest of us were toasted, eyes bloodshot and feet barely under us. I don’t think we ever won a game. We allowed 15 runs in the first inning of a game once just kicking the ball around the infield and misplaying fly balls in the outfield. Once our collective buzz wore off, though, we got back in the game and lost by one. But an at-bat in slow-pitch, intramural, co-ed softball isn’t as scary as an at-bat in professional baseball. I imagine a 95-mile-per-hour fastball or 12-to-6 curveball would be the ultimate buzzkill. Your brain and body just aren’t prepared for that while stoned.
And that’s not even the worst cannabis-sports story of the week, either. High school football player CJ Harris dreamed of playing for the Auburn Tigers, but his recurring seizures threatened that dream until his cannabis medication stopped those seizures. Now that medication will keep him from pursuing his dream, because per NCAA rules, athletes are not permitted to have any tetrahydrocannabinol, or THC, the psychoactive substance in cannabis, in their systems. The cannabis oil Harris takes for his seizures contains less than 0.3 percent THC, according to the label, which means it doesn’t get you high. This is something the NCAA can easily fix by changing the language to allow for the use of non-psychoactive cannabis medications. Whether they will is unlikely.
National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell weighed in on the Supreme Court’s recent decision that the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 is unconstitutional, opening the door for states to legalize sports betting.
U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch, a Republican from Utah, has been speaking the the NFL and is planning to introduce federal sports betting legislation. Goodell wants Congress to create uniform betting standards that, at minimum, include:
Unlike Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, and the Professional Golfers’ Association, the NFL has not expressed an interest in receiving a direct cut of legalized sports betting action. Instead, sources say the league is more focused on monetizing data and video rights, and for good reason.
While MLB, the NBA, and PGA Tour are lobbying for what was one percent of all money wagered on their games and have since lowered their demands to .25 percent of all wagers, the NFL is laughing at .25 percent because it amounts to Roger Goodell’s pocket change.
$1.7 billion was bet on both college and professional football at Nevada sportsbooks last year. Half of that is $850 million, and .25 percent of that is $2.125 million. The NFL doesn’t get into bed with anyone for a couple million dollars. But there’s billions of dollars to be made selling analytical information to gamblers gambling on games that are decided by fewer and fewer points each year.
According to research by Eldorado, the 2015 NFL season had the lowest median margin of victory in history. Games nowadays are more than twice as likely to be decided by three points than games played from 1922 to 1973. Over at marasoft.com, you’ll find that almost 24 percent of all NFL games played in the last 20 years were decided by three or fewer points, and roughly half of all NFL games are won by underdogs. So the sport can be a nightmare for even the savviest of sports bettors, and gamblers will take any bit of information they can get to gain an edge.
So many elements go into determining the outcome of a football game that having a means of producing and distributing gambling-related information is way more valuable than a quarter of one percent of all money wagered on games. So while MLB, the NBA, and PGA Tour are negotiating over what amounts to Roger Goodell’s pocket change, the NFL is looking to exploit the vast amount of data its sport produces by owning the method or math it chooses to turn that data into information it can sell to clueless gamblers as a subscription service.
This was a big deal when it came to determining the legality of fantasy sports betting. Fantasy sports gamblers who win most often aren’t simply luckier than the losers. They employ an algorithm that considers all the things they feel affect the outcome of sporting events. The NFL, I think, aims to own the algorithms and sell the answers those algorithms provide.
After being arrested with 126 grams of cannabis and $92,000 in cash two months ago, former Boston Celtics forward and NBA champion Glen “Big Baby” Davis was again arrested last Friday for felony assault with intent to cause great bodily injury. According to TMZ, after almost hitting a man with his car, Davis allegedly slammed the man on to concrete when confronted.
Milwaukee Bucks' rookie Sterling Brown was stun gunned by police back in January. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett was worried about the video’s release this week and potential public backlash that could result because Brown was not combative prior to being tased.
An officer who was doing a business check at a Walgreens stopped to question Brown about a parking violation at about 2 a.m. on Jan. 26. Brown gave his name and showed an identification card. The officer called for assistance, and half a dozen squad cars responded...for a parking violation. Eight officers ended up on the scene...for a parking violation; three were disciplined, with the first on the scene reportedly being suspended for a full two days. Two supervisors who later arrived, escalating the situation, were suspended for 10 and 15 days, and several other officers were reprimanded.
Brown's arrest did not result in criminal charges, and he played in a game later that day with bruises on his face. Brown intends to file a civil rights lawsuit against the Police Department, which is something that most Milwaukeeans involved in similar situations couldn’t afford to do. I guess it’s a good thing those Milwaukee cops don’t watch Bucks basketball, because had this happened to anyone else, we probably wouldn’t have heard about it.
The saddest thing about this is that there are so many unjustified shootings by police of black men and women that I’m just glad this officer reached for a stun gun instead of a real gun, and the thought that “at least they didn’t kill him” has even crept into my mind is troubling to me. Wyatt Cenac has been doing some great work investigating police brutality for his show Problem Areas on HBO. One episode looked at the importance of providing police with and reinforcing the use of non-fatal means of ending confrontations. But you also have to combat the training to which police officers are subjected that instills a sense of them being at war rather than at one with their communities. To remedy this, a good place to start would be requiring police officers in training to communicate with non-police minorities prior to earning the privilege of carrying a badge and a firearm.
With all the bad news out of the way, let’s for a minute consider how lucky we are to be alive for this era in sports, because we’re seeing things that haven’t been seen in generations. The Vegas Golden Knights are playing for a championship in their inaugural season for the first time since 1950, when the Cleveland Browns won the NFL Championship in their inaugural season. And that’s not even the most historic story in sports, because Los Angeles Angel Shohei Ohtani is serving as both a formidable starting pitcher and hitter for the first time since Babe Ruth did it roughly a hundred years ago.
I know you and our listeners want to hear some Ruthian stats, so here they are, in a segment we call “Historically Foul Play,” because these numbers are so unbelievable their most reasonable explanation is foul play.
So not only is Ohtani doing something unseen for 100 years, he’s arguably doing it better than Ruth did. While he’s never going to pitch almost 25 percent of his team’s total innings on the season like Ruth, he is going to get more than 20 starts and is on pace to get a similar number of plate appearances as Ruth did at the same age. If he stays healthy, the Babe Ruth of Japanese baseball might end up the new Babe Ruth of Major League Baseball.
Let’s keep the statistical analysis going and find a player whose stats indicate foul play in a segment we call ‘Statistically Significant Foul Player.’
Foul Play-by-Play, its hosts, nor its partners practice nor condone the accusatory promulgation of foul play by athletes for the sake of the hot take. Cheats are innocent until proven guilty. That said, in this case of the statistically significant foul player, I’d like to admit into evidence the following significant statistics indicating foul play.
Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo is third amongst active players in hit by pitches with 106 over his seven plus seasons. He’s led the league in hit by pitches twice, taking 30 for the team in 2015 and wearing 24 last year. There’s a 2.6-percent chance a Rizzo plate appearance ends with him on first base with a bruise.
Rizzo is just one reason why umpires should enforce the rule that players have to make an attempt to avoid a pitched ball. I mean, a lot of those free bases should probably be called balls and the at-bat continued. I’m not calling the defendant a cheat. I’m just sayin’ the statistics are significant indicators of foul play. I trust the jurors will make the right decision and find the defendant guilty of foul play given the evidence. I rest my case.
Bronze medalist: Infamous NFL bully and Pro Bowler Richie Incognito allegedly threw a tennis ball and a dumbbell at someone at a Florida gym on Wednesday and was placed on an involuntary psychiatric hold by police, according to TMZ Sports. The alleged victim claims Incognito was rambling about the government and screaming at him to “get off” his “bleeping playground.” That’s just rich coming from a man who lost a job for bullying a teammate. He makes this list because he was also named the second dirtiest player in the NFL by The Sporting News in 2012.
Silver medalist: Admitted steroid user and former Mets and Phillies star Lenny Dykstra was arrested early Wednesday in New Jersey while possessing cocaine and ecstasy. The arrest was the result of an Uber ride gone bad. The Uber driver told police he picked up Dykstra and when he refused to change the destination Dykstra initially requested, Dykstra allegedly brandished a firearm, pointed it at the Uber driver’s head and threatened to kill him. The Uber driver said he sped into a parking lot next to the Linden police station, honked the horn and fled the vehicle. Dykstra, 55, was charged with making terroristic threats and a number of drug offenses.
Gold medalist: Chicago White Sox catcher Welington Castillo has been suspended 80 games for testing positive for erythropoietin, a performance-enhancing drug that stimulates the bone marrow to produce more red blood cells. The resulting rise in red cells increases the oxygen-carrying capacity of the blood, in turn, increasing the endurance of the user.