Barb Adams
GCN Live.com

Extreme weather events, from record-breaking tornado outbreaks to record-breaking temperatures, drought, and snowfalls, are forcing the climate change issue. But is the warming weather actually causing an increase in numbers and strength of storms?

On Tuesday, a dozen tornadoes swept through the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area causing extensive damage and injuries. Fortunately, no fatalities were reported. Although it is not uncommon for the Dallas-Fort Worth area to be hit by tornadoes, “having two major systems strike a single metropolitan area is highly unusual,” said meteorologist Jesse Moore. The Dallas-Fort Worth outbreak came on the heels of several other deadly tornado outbreaks that occurred earlier this year, and followed an exceptionally deadly and destructive year for tornadoes in 2011 (552 deaths, which ranks second in number of deaths in a single year in U.S. history).

Tornadoes can occur at any time of the year in the U.S., with “tornado season” officially beginning in March and peaking in May and June across the Central U.S. This year, like last year, tornado season began early in January, when a significant outbreak occurred across the southern states. There was another outbreak in February (Leap Day Outbreak), followed by one of the largest outbreaks ever recorded for early March, with 160 tornadoes. Thus far in 2012, 57 people have been killed as a result of these storms.

Records indicate that we’re breaking more heat records than cold records. The winter of 2011-2012 was the fourth warmest on record, and March 2012 was the hottest ever for much of the nation. More than 6,000 high-temperature records were broken and, according to Accuweather.com, “…cities in more than 25 states, as well as Washington, D.C., broke records for average daily temperatures last month, including Chicago, Oklahoma City, Des Moines, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, and Detroit.”

While most of the nation enjoyed the benefits of the warmer, drier winter, Anchorage, Alaska, endured a brutal winter (as did much of Europe and Asia). Extremes swing both ways. As Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, points out, “Extremes are always expected to happen as the climate record gets longer, but certain extremes related to heating are becoming more evident. For example in the United States, extremes of high temperatures have been occurring at a rate of twice those of cold extremes, and this has accelerated considerably since June 2010…Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Louisiana all suffered their hottest June-July-August (JJA) 2011 since 1895… (and) Texas also experienced the driest JJA on record.”

And Texas isn’t alone. Colorado is experiencing an unusual drought as well, with early-season wildfires already claiming several lives. According to The Denver Post, “98 percent of the state is experiencing varying levels of drought;” and Wendy Ryan, a Research Associate at the Colorado Climate Center, noted that “In Fort Collins, we had the hottest and driest March on record … This is the first time we’ve ever had only a trace of precipitation for March. No years have had zero.”

Does a warming climate mean more severe weather, and are we already seeing the effects of this warming? Meghan Evans, a meteorologist with AccuWeather.com believes that “There is no strong evidence to support severe weather becoming stronger, more frequent or more widespread during the past 50 years in the United States as a result of climate change.”

So why does it seem that tornado outbreaks and extreme weather events, including drought, are becoming more common across the country and around the world? According to Research Meteorologist Dr. Harold Brooks of NOAA’s National Severe Storms Lab in Norman, Oklahoma, “The big reason why we think that severe weather has gotten worse is our ability to communicate information about it…we are more aware and able to communicate that information about events so much better than we used to be able to that it makes us think severe weather has increased.”

But with records indicating a trend of warming temperatures, what might the impact be of future climate change on weather-related events? “As the planet warms, the moisture content of the atmosphere will also increase, and that’s the basic fuel that drives thunderstorms,” says Brooks. “It’s where the storms get their energy from… as we warm the planet that will increase the energy available for producing storms. The other primary ingredient, the shear that organizes the storm, is likely going to decrease. We may see a shift toward non-tornadic wind storms in the future, but that’s still a preliminary result.”

Meghan Evans concurs. “Straight-line winds may increase since high wind shear is not as much of an influence, while the frequency and strength of tornadoes may not change very much. It is difficult to conclude confidently whether the regions that get the most severe weather and tornadoes will shift as the climate warms.”

“Our primary understanding of what will happen in the future with severe weather is actually based on our current understanding…Then we look in the future from climate models and from basic physical understanding of how the atmosphere works to understand how those basic environments will change,” Brooks added.

Better understanding of climate cycles will come with our increased ability to detect and report weather-related events. In the meantime, however, society has to deal with all the extremes. As Stanford University Climate Scientist Chris Field states, “We mostly experience weather and climate through the extreme.” Mark Twain may have said it best, though, when he quipped “Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.”

Barb Adams is the host of Amerika Now talk radio show, which airs on GCN Saturdays 10:00p-1:00am Central Time. Listen to the show On Demand.

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By Dr Daliah
GCN Live.com

This week Dallas was hit by tornadoes as well as massive rainfall.

Tornadoes have been especially active this season. This year alone we saw severe storms hit the Midwest with tornadoes damaging parts of Illinois, Indiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee.

What causes a tornado? Briefly explained, tornadoes occur as the warm air from the south meets the cold air from the North (at a “dryline”). The warm air may rise over the cold air but continuing cold air moves over the warm air sandwiching it in. Multiple factors then interplay and the air becomes unstable. During a tumultuous storm the updrafts and downdrafts together with the wind shear create a vertical shift of the storm that can accelerate with rotation, giving birth to a column of air that extends from the thunderstorm down to the ground. Speeds can reach over 250 mph.

So, the CDC recommends the following on their website:

Before a storm hits, we should prepare, by creating an emergency plan and practicing it with drills. Know which exits are available at work or home, and secure a secondary exit in case one is blocked. Know where your utility switches and valves are located so if time permits you may be able to turn these off during an emergency. Have first aid kits and fire extinguishers readily visible and easy to grab. All important information such as medical histories, neighbor’s numbers, family member numbers, bank numbers, telephone, power and gas lines should be in a waterproof safe along with your insurance policies, birth certificates, social security cards, will, etc.

Secure furniture or anything that can fall, use childproof latches on all cabinets, secure any hazardous materials such as cleaners and solvents in a well-ventilated area away from emergency food and supplies.

Now, during a tornado, take shelter! A basement may be the safest place in your home. However if you do not have a basement, go to an inside room without windows on the lowest floor. This could included a center hallway, a closet or bathroom, but avoid glass from windows or mirrors. Get under something sturdy like a heavy table or workbench and cover your body with a blanket to avoid getting hit with flying particles. If you are in a mobile home, if possible go to a nearby building for shelter. If there is no shelter, lie flat in the nearest ditch or ravine and cover your head with your arms. If you’re in a car during a tornado, do not try to outrun the storm, but try to go the nearest building. If shelter is not available, leave your car and find a ditch to lie in, again protecting your head. Avoid areas where there are many cars and trees.

As previously noted, the CDC website has more detailed instructions. But it doesn’t hurt to prepare and be prepared.

Daliah Wachs, MD

Dr. Daliah is the host of The Dr. Daliah Show, which airs on GCN Monday through Friday 8:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m. Central Time. Listen to the show On Demand.

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Barb Adams
GCN Live.com

On Monday, two small asteroids gave Earth a “close shave” as they passed between the Earth and the Moon, but astronomers are keeping a closer eye on two large asteroids that could pose potential problems in the near future.

Space.com reported that two small asteroids passed by Earth in rapid succession on Monday, March 26th. The first asteroid, 2012 FP35, was about the size of a small bus and flew within 96,000 miles of the Earth. The second asteroid, 2012 FS35, came even closer to Earth at 36,000 miles. Both asteroids were only detected last weekend, but posed no risk of impact as they were both small enough to have not survived a trip through Earth’s atmosphere.

That may not be the case with two larger asteroids. On February 23, 2012, observers at the La Sagra Sky Survey near Granada, Spain, discovered a new asteroid that may have the potential to pose a threat as early as February 2013. Named 2012 DA14, the asteroid has an estimated diameter of about 150 feet across and was discovered in a part of the sky where asteroids typically are not seen.

Scientists calculate that 2012 DA14 will pass uncomfortably close to Earth on February 15, 2013, at about 14,000 miles from the Earth’s surface, with some calculations showing the nearest approach being as close as 12,680 miles. For comparison, 2012 DA14’s passage will be closer to Earth than many satellites in orbit, and may be as close to Earth as the International Space Station, which orbits at 240 miles above the Earth’s surface.

Astronomers emphasize that 2012 DA14 is not an impact threat, however, some believe that there may be the possibility for a collision in the “future.” Dr. Gerhard Drolshagen, of the European Space Agency’s Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Office, said that 2012 DA14 will offer a great view in the sky next February (being easily visible through a pair of binoculars), but that “In future times the possibility of a collision cannot be completely excluded. It is highly unlikely, but the chance is greater than zero.”

Although 2012 DA14 will not make a direct impact on Earth in 2013, some scientists have not ruled out the effects on Earth if the asteroid exploded in our atmosphere over an inhabited area. There could be major repercussions if such an event occurred.

The most recent event in recorded history of a large meteor or comet entering Earth’s atmosphere and exploding over land is the 1908 Tunguska Event, which had an estimated force of about 5-30 megatons. Approximately 830 square miles were affected, and the explosion knocked down trees and produced a shock wave estimated to have been a 5.0 on the Richter Scale. A similar event these days would be capable of destroying a major metropolitan area. As Dr. Drolshagen points out, “That is an area the size of Greater London.”

In addition to 2012 DA14, scientists are also keeping very close watch on another asteroid which may pose an impact threat to Earth in 2040. Asteroid 2011 AG5 is a humongous chuck of rock about 460-feet wide, and “currently has the highest chance of impacting the Earth…in 2040,” says Detlef Koschny of the European Space Agency’s Solar System Missions Division in The Netherlands. The concern is great enough that some scientists are already discussing how to deflect the asteroid, and the topic was on the agenda at the 49th Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of the United Nations’ Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space held in Vienna, Austria, earlier this month.

2011 AG5 was first discovered in January 2011 by astronomers at the Mount Lemmon Observatory near Tucson, Arizona. Astronomers acknowledge that because they have been unable to determine the full orbit of 2011 AG5, the risk of direct impact remains unknown, but current odds are 1 in 625. As Koschny points out, “We have only observed it for about one-half an orbit, thus, the confidence in these calculations is still not very high.” He added that for this asteroid to be considered a real threat, scientists would need to observe it for at least one, if not two, complete orbits. The next tracking opportunities will occur in September 2013 and November 2015.

Because 2011 AG5 will be observable from the ground in 2013 and 2015, Donald Yeomans, Head of the Near-Earth Object Observation Program Office at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, believes “there will be time to mount a deflection mission to alter its course before the 2023 keyhole.” A “keyhole” is a small region of space where a planet’s gravity can perturb the orbit of a passing asteroid so that the asteroid would collide with that planet on a future orbital pass. It is estimated that 2011 AG5 may pass through such a keyhole in 2023, in which Earth’s gravitational influence would have the potential to place the asteroid on an impact course for February 5, 2040.

Threats from asteroids are very real, and astronomers are continually seeking ways to locate them earlier. NASA’s Asteroid Watch Program “detects, tracks and characterizes asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground- and space-based telescopes. The Near-Earth Object Observations Program, commonly called ‘Spaceguard,’ discovers these objects…and determines their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.”

With an estimated half million near-Earth objects believed yet to be discovered, odds are that one will make its deep impact known here on Earth eventually. When, where, and how big of an impact remains to be seen. “Of the four billion life forms which have existed on this planet, three billion, nine hundred and sixty million are now extinct… Some by wanton extinction, some through natural catastrophe, some destroyed by meteorites and asteroids. In the light of these mass extinctions it really does seem unreasonable to suppose that Homo sapiens should be exempt…”
– P. D. James, The Children of Men.

Barb Adams is the host of Amerika Now talk radio show, which airs on GCN Saturdays 10:00p-1:00am Central Time. Listen to the show On Demand.

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Barb Adams
GCN Live.com

A small town in Wisconsin is giving new meaning to the phrase “things that go bump in the night” after a series of mysterious underground “booms” accompanied by ground shaking sent some residents packing and left scientists scratching their heads as to their source.

Residents in the northeast section of Clintonville, Wisconsin, a small town located in Waupaca County near Green Bay, have been hearing mysterious underground booming sounds since last Sunday evening. The strange sounds, described as being like heavy thunder, fireworks, or a cannon, began on Sunday evening and intensified by Monday, tapering off a bit by Thursday morning. Officials received more than 250 calls from concerned residents as they scrambled to find an explanation for the sounds.

Gas lines and sewers were checked, and officials contacted local businesses and mining operations in the area. Even the military was contacted, but NORAD claimed none of their planes was responsible for any of the sounds. The National Weather Service ruled out the weather.

After ruling out many man-made possibilities, city officials contacted experts at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Department of Geoscience about whether or not the “booms” could be related to seismic activity. Seismology Professor Clifford Thurber reviewed seismograph readings from a station in Shiocton about 20 miles from the affected area and, while he did see evidence of the ground shaking in an unusual way, concluded that “nothing he saw indicated an earthquake.”
Harold Tobin, a Professor of Fault Mechanics and Rock Physics, went to Clintonville. After reviewing seismograph readings for the area, he, too, concluded that while it does appear that the sounds are coming from the ground just beneath the surface, “…we can rule out that standard earthquake activity, [that] some swarm of earthquakes is happening in that region. It also really looks like it’s not connected to, say, unusual drilling activity or some other kind of real obvious human-induced signal.”

By Thursday, however, researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) determined that the possible cause of the rumblings was a 1.5-magnitude earthquake that had occurred near Clintonville on Tuesday. Geophysicist Paul Caruso told the Associated Press that the types of noises that were being reported in Clintonville have been known to be associated with earthquakes, however, he also had his doubts, stating “To be honest, I’m skeptical that there would be a sound report associated with such a small earthquake.”

Booming sounds have been reported for a long time in the U.S. and around the world, and tend to occur more frequently in the Northeastern part of the country and along the East Coast. Early explorers and native people made note of such “booms.” The most well-known of these types of sounds are the “Seneca Guns.” The term “Seneca Guns” originated in one of James Fenimore Cooper’s short stories called “The Lake Gun,” which referred to the “booms” heard on the shores of Lake Seneca and Lake Cayuga in New York State in the 1800s. The name has since been used to describe similar sounds along the Carolina Coasts and Virginia. There were also accounts of “artillery-like” sounds that occurred before and during the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812 (see related article on the New Madrid Seismic Zone).

While scientists speculate that these “booms” may actually be very small, shallow earthquakes that are too small to be recorded, other causes have occasionally been determined. Some of these include far-off thunder, sonic booms, mining activities, explosives, and even meteors entering the atmosphere. But sometimes an explanation remains elusive.
Regardless of what’s causing the “booms,” some Clintonville residents decided to pack their bags and leave town in search of much-needed rest. And while residents of Clintonville brace for the possibility of another round of odd booming sounds, residents in the town of Montello, about 80 miles south, also reported hearing similar loud “booming” sounds this week.

Although the USGS has declared the case closed in Clintonville, speculation remains among geologists as to whether such a small earthquake could produce the types of sounds being reported for such a length of time at such a shallow depth. City Administrator Lisa Kuss was quick to agree with the USGS and declared the mystery solved. Many local residents, however, doubt that an earthquake was the cause of the sounds they experienced, and remain wary of “those things that go bump in the night.”

Barb Adams is the host of Amerika Now talk radio show, which airs on GCN Saturdays 10:00p-1:00am Central Time. Listen to the show On Demand.

Like GCN Live on Facebook and follow on Twitter for more great news, opinions, and announcements from GCN Live’s hosts and staff.