Archive for the ‘Economy’ Category

BIG BANKS WANT TO STAY TOO BIG TO FAIL!

Friday, May 3rd, 2013

by Jim Brown,


Show host, Jim Brown’s Common Sense


In the movie Wall Street, Michael Douglas’s character Gordon Gecko summed up the attitude of major U.S. banks quite well: “Greed is good.”.

And this certainly appears to be true, at least for the banks, because after all, the federal government has made it clear that even after the 2008 financial debacle, where hundreds of billions’ of dollars were poured into the likes of these big guys, no effective new rules have been put into place and no major banker has been held accountable.

The old axiom is true. The more the big banks take irresponsible risks and commit out- right fraud, the more things stay the same, as the regulatory system looks the other way. That is until the banks face major losses and cry for help. Then the federal dollars begin to flow and bailout checks pour out of the federal treasury with the force of a flooding river.

Remember just five years ago? The big banks made off like bandits. J.P. Morgan Chase received $25 billion. Bank of America cashed in for $15 billion. Citigroup was the recipient of $25 billion, while both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley received $10 billion, each. With all this money being handed over by taxpayers, surely the rules of financial solvency and bank accountability would be overhauled. Too many risky investments and not enough money kept in reserve was the cry.

And there were some efforts by congress and legislators to build in more “perceived” safeguards. Dodd-Frank legislation was enacted into law in 2010, but many members of Congress who strongly supported the reforms in this legislation feel it did not do enough. “The bottom line is that Dodd – Frank didn’t end too big to fail,” says Representative Jeb Hensarling, chairman of the House Committee on Financial Services. According to Hensarling, the “Dodd-Frank institutionalized and codified too big to fail.”

Then there were internationally agreed upon rules called Basel III, but such rules assume that there are regulators across the globe that can handle the job of monitoring big banks. There have been many instances were regulators have dropped the ball, or have been intimidated by the very banks they are supposed to regulate. And the rules themselves have proven to be complicated and open to varying interpretations.

Into to fray comes two Senators who seem to be making a good faith effort to both simplify the rules and bypass the incompetency of the regulators. And they seem to be on the right track. Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, a moderate democrat, and Louisiana Senator David Vitter, a conservative republican, have proposed some systematic reforms with the goal of allowing us to stop worrying about big banks. Their legislation is purported to raise the cushion against bad risk by requiring more reserves, and simplifying the requirements to be followed.

Sherrod Brown (no relation) is a details guy. I had the chance to work with him on a number of election reform proposals when we were both Secretaries of State for our respective states back in the 1980s. David Vitter worked with me on a number of insurance reform proposals when he was in the Louisiana legislature in the 1990s, and I was the state’s insurance commissioner. They come from different philosophical slants, but both agree that big banks have taken advantage of the regulatory system and the taxpayers.

Brown summed up their joint approach in a recent statement where he pointed out “that the more we learn about these bailouts, gifts and advantages that Wall Street gets, the clearer it becomes that one set of rules applies to the largest megabanks and another set of rules to the smaller financial institutions and the rest of the country.” Louisiana banker Presto Kennedy agrees. “The solution demands a political will to break up these greedy and corrupt giants that threaten to engulf our financial system.”

The Brown-Vitter proposal does not go as far as requiring break-ups of giant banks. But the legislation does make an attempt to level the playing field. One way is to limit the discretion of regulators who often have been intimidated by the political influence of the Wall Street giants. The New York Times commented that “in a major way, the Brown – Vitter bill effectively sidesteps the need for reliable regulators. It simply says that all banks would have to set up a buffer for potential losses – called capital in the industry – that is equivalent to 15% of their total assets.”

The Brown-Vitter proposal is not a “solve all” solution. But it will go a long way to inhibiting future major financial crises. It recognizes that the five biggest banks in the U.S. control assets that add up to some 60% of America’s gross national product. This doesn’t reflect the free market or real competition. In fact, there is no present free market in the financial system. When you allow an inefficient government-subsidy scheme like the one we have in place now to protect megabanks that are carrying on large, complex activities, even with Dodd-Frank, the regulatory system will continue to allow unmanageable financial giants that will be deemed “too big to fail.”

We’ve had enough of Wall Street welfare. Right now, risky financial behavior is the norm on Wall Street. Heads they win, tails, the taxpayer looses. The Brown-Vitter proposal may have some slight unintended consequences. But it’s a good start, and it will create a much better balanced marketplace with a much greater likely hood of averting any financial crisis in the future.

Jim Brown’s syndicated column appears each week in numerous newspapers throughout the nation and on websites worldwide.  You can read all his past columns and see continuing updates at http://www.jimbrownusa.com.  You can also hear Jim’s nationally syndicated radio show each Sunday morning from 9 am till 11:00 am, central time.


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U.S. economy revved up, but it’s probably temporary

Friday, April 26th, 2013

By Annalyn Kurtz

CNNMoney.com

The U.S. economy accelerated at the beginning of the year, but don’t get too excited. Economists aren’t very optimistic that trend will continue in the months ahead.


Gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — rose at a 2.5% annual pace in the first three months of the year, driven largely by a pick-up in consumer spending, the Commerce Department said.

Consumer spending, which alone accounts for roughly two-thirds of GDP, rose at a 3.2% annual pace, the fastest pace since the end of 2010.

At first glance, that’s pretty remarkable, since most workers saw their take-home pay drop in January, following the end of the payroll tax cut.

But the data also shows that consumers funded that spending in part by saving less. Americans saved an average of 2.6% of their disposable income in the first quarter, down from 4.7% at the end of 2012.

“Households are drawing down savings, and they are borrowing to continue spending,” said Steve Cunningham, director of research and education for the American Institute for Economic Research. “That won’t last forever.”

What were people buying? Primarily, more services. That too could be partly temporary in nature.

Americans spent more on housing and utilities, which rebounded after slumping following Hurricane Sandy in the prior quarter. This March was also the coldest since 2002, a weather patten that boosted the demand for heating.

Consumer spending on durable goods like autos also contributed to stronger economic growth, but to a lesser extent.

On the business side, investment in equipment and software added slightly to growth. An even bigger boost, however, came as businesses restocked their shelves and warehouses after drawing down their inventories in the fourth quarter. That effect is also likely to be temporary, Cunningham said.

Related: The global economy is losing steam

Meanwhile, cuts in government spending, mainly related to defense, dragged on the economy in the first quarter.

The last two quarters marked the biggest six-month contraction in the federal government’s economic activity since the months following the Korean War, which ended in 1953, noted Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist of Capital Economics.

Spending by federal, state and local governments is now lower than it was in mid-2007, before the recession began.

Given the fiscal squeeze, Ashworth said it’s rather impressive that the economy still grew 2.5% in the first quarter. Since the recovery began in mid-2009, the economy has grown an average of 2.1% a year. Once you strip out the government’s spending, though, that growth looks more like 3.1%.

“It’s becoming more and more clear that the public sector is the real thing holding the economy back now,” he said.

Public-sector cutbacks are likely to continue dragging on the economy through the rest of the year as the federal government alone cuts $85 billion over a seven-month period.

Economic growth isn’t likely to be as strong in the second quarter. Other economic data already shows the economy may have lost some steam starting in March.

Job growth slowed, retail sales slumped and the manufacturing sector showed signs of weakness.

Overall, the first quarter GDP report was a bit of a letdown. Economists had been expecting the economy to grow at an even stronger rate of 2.8%.

“Even this weaker-than-hoped-for growth rate exaggerates the true underlying momentum in the economy,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

U.S. stocks were mixed Friday morning, following the report. To top of page


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Climate Change’s Effects on Taxes

Friday, April 12th, 2013

By Barb Adams,

show host, America Now

america now.com

As April 15th nears and millions of Americans rush to get their taxes filed, many people are not aware of how climate change and catastrophic weather events are affecting their taxes.

Wildfires, floods, hurricanes, drought…all of these disasters are taking a toll on Americans and their wallets. While many people view climate change in terms of its future effects on the economy and environment, Michael Zammit Cutajar, former Executive Secretary of the UN’s Convention on Climate Change, says “Climate change is not just a distant threat but a present danger—its economic impact is already with us.”

In February, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) warned that “ Climate change is a complex, crosscutting issue that poses risks to many environmental and economic systems—including agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems, and human health—and presents a significant financial risk to the federal government. Among other impacts, climate change could threaten coastal areas with rising sea levels, alter agricultural productivity, and increase the intensity and frequency of severe weather events. As observed by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), the impacts and costliness of weather disasters—resulting from floods, drought, and other events such as tropical cyclones—will increase in significance as what are considered ‘rare’ events become more common and intense due to climate change…These impacts will result in increased fiscal exposure for the federal government.”

And anything that causes the government “increased fiscal exposure” is usually passed on to taxpayers. Take the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) for example. The NFIP was designed to be self-supporting, but the GAO reports that since 2003, repetitive catastrophic losses have cost taxpayers more than $200 million dollars per year.

According to Mindy Lubber, President of Ceres, a nonprofit organization preparing business leadership on climate change, “The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is staggering under massive losses after Superstorm Sandy…Although the NFIP collects about $3.5 billion a year in premiums, the amount of claims the agency has paid out has exceeded the amount collected in four of the past eight years, leading to increased borrowing by the Federal government (in other words, taxpayers) to fill the gap. Last year’s losses in Sandy’s wake are expected to approach $8 billion. That’s $25 for every American.”

And those figures do not take into account the $50.5 billion dollars in disaster relief Congress approved this January for Sandy victims.

“With sea levels rising and storm surges reaching farther inland because of climate change, risks to coastal communities and costs to taxpayers will continue to rise,” says Lubber.

While the NFIP is drowning in claims, last year’s third-worst wildfire season in U.S. history has left the West scorched and burned a hole in the budgets of those states affected. More than nine million acres burned, and the U.S. Forest Service “overspent its available fire suppression budget by $400 million, as it has almost every year for the last 20 years,” says Lubber.

Climate change models predict “that in a warming world, the West and Southwest will become drier and hotter—conditions ripe for wildfires.” With increasing numbers of wildfires as well as increasing costs to suppress them, taxpayers will get burned from both sides.

The extended drought across the country is also costing taxpayers. The Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP), subsidized by taxpayers, was created during the Dust Bowl to protect farmers against crop losses. According to Ceres, federal crop insurance payments have increased dramatically in the past decade from $4.2 billion to $16 billion in 2012, costing every American an additional $51 per year.

And these costs are likely to continue — the latest numbers from the U.S. Drought Monitor show nearly 67 percent of the contiguous U.S. is now experiencing some level of drought,” says Lubber.

There are other risks to taxpayers from extreme weather events as well. As Lubber points out, “State governments are increasingly liable for the cost of damages as private insurers pull out of at-risk locations, leaving state taxpayers subsidizing insurance loss claims for homes and businesses.”

Extreme weather events pose threats to our nation’s well-being as well as being destabilizing fiscal risks. Neither the NFIP nor FCIP are prepared to deal with climate change. Whether recent extreme weather events are the direct result of climate change or random acts of nature doesn’t matter in the end, because we all eventually suffer the economic consequences.

 


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Unfit for work: The startling rise of disability in America

Monday, April 1st, 2013

By Chana Joffe-Walt


http://www.npr.com/


In the past three decades, the number of Americans who are on disability has skyrocketed. The rise has come even as medical advances have allowed many more people to remain on the job, and new laws have banned workplace discrimination against the disabled. Every month, 14 million people now get a disability check from the government.


The federal government spends more money each year on cash payments for disabled former workers than it spends on food stamps and welfare combined. Yet people relying on disability payments are often overlooked in discussions of the social safety net. The vast majority of people on federal disability do not work.[1] Yet because they are not technically part of the labor force, they are not counted among the unemployed.

In other words, people on disability don’t show up in any of the places we usually look to see how the economy is doing. But the story of these programs — who goes on them, and why, and what happens after that — is, to a large extent, the story of the U.S. economy. It’s the story not only of an aging workforce, but also of a hidden, increasingly expensive safety net.

For the past six months, I’ve been reporting on the growth of federal disability programs. I’ve been trying to understand what disability means for American workers, and, more broadly, what it means for poor people in America nearly 20 years after we ended welfare as we knew it. Here’s what I found.

One in four

In Hale County, Alabama, 1 in 4 working-age adults is on disability. On the day government checks come in every month, banks stay open late, Main Street fills up with cars, and anybody looking to unload an old TV or armchair has a yard sale.

Sonny Ryan, a retired judge in town, didn’t hear disability cases in his courtroom. But the subject came up often. He described one exchange he had with a man who was on disability but looked healthy.

“Just out of curiosity, what is your disability?” the judge asked from the bench.
“I have high blood pressure,” the man said.
“So do I,” the judge said. “What else?”
“I have diabetes.”
“So do I.”

There’s no diagnosis called disability. You don’t go to the doctor and the doctor says, “We’ve run the tests and it looks like you have disability.” It’s squishy enough that you can end up with one person with high blood pressure who is labeled disabled and another who is not.

I talked to lots of people in Hale County who were on disability. Sometimes, the disability seemed unambiguous.

“I was in a 1990 Jeep Cherokee Laredo,” Dane Mitchell, a 23-year-old guy I met in a coffee shop, told me. “I flipped it both ways, flew 165 feet from the Jeep, going through 12 to 14,000 volts of electrical lines. Then I landed into a briar patch. I broke all five of my right toes, my right hip, seven of my vertebrae, shattering one, breaking a right rib, punctured my lung, and then I cracked my neck.”

Other stories seemed less clear. I sat with lots of women in Hale County who told me how their backs kept them up at night and made it hard for them to stand on the job. “I used to cry to try to work,” one woman told me. “It was so painful.”

People don’t seem to be faking this pain, but it gets confusing. I have back pain. My editor has a herniated disc, and he works harder than anyone I know. There must be millions of people with asthma and diabetes who go to work every day. Who gets to decide whether, say, back pain makes someone disabled?

As far as the federal government is concerned, you’re disabled if you have a medical condition that makes it impossible to work. In practice, it’s a judgment call made in doctors’ offices and courtrooms around the country. The health problems where there is most latitude for judgment — back pain, mental illness — are among the fastest growing causes of disability.

to continue reading article complete with graphs and footnotes, please click here.


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Money-Laundering Banks Still Get a Pass From U.S.

Monday, April 1st, 2013

By Simon Johnson – Mar 31, 2013 5:30 PM CT

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Money laundering by large international banks has reached epidemic proportions, and U.S. authorities are supposedly looking into Citigroup Inc. (C) and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Governor Jerome Powell, on behalf of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, recently testified to Congress on the issue, and he sounded serious. But international criminals and terrorists needn’t worry. This is window dressing: Complicit bankers have nothing to fear from the U.S. justice system.

To be on the safe side, though, miscreants should be sure to use a really large global bank for all their money-laundering needs.

There may be fines, but the largest financial companies are unlikely to face criminal actions or meaningful sanctions. The Department of Justice has decided that these banks are too big to prosecute to the full extent of the law, though why this also gets employees and executives off the hook remains a mystery. And the Federal Reserve refuses to rescind bank licenses, undermining the credibility, legitimacy and stability of the financial system.

To see this perverse incentive program in action, consider the recent case of a big money-laundering bank that violated a deferred prosecution agreement with the Justice Department, openly broke U.S. securities law and stuck its finger in the eye of the Fed. This is what John Peace, the chairman of Standard Chartered Plc (STAN), and his colleagues managed to get away with March 5. The meaningful consequences for him or his company are precisely zero.

Chairman’s Statement

At one level, this is farce. Standard Chartered has long conceded that it broke U.S. money-laundering laws in spectacular and prolonged fashion. In late 2012, it entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with the Justice Department, agreeing to pay a fine that amounts to little more than a slap on the wrist (in any case, such penalties are paid by shareholders, not management).

Then, on a March 5 conference call with investors, Peace denied that his bank and its employees had willfully broken U.S. law with their money-laundering activities. This statement was a clear breach of the deferred prosecution agreement (see paragraph 12 on page 10, where the bank agreed that none of its officers should make “any public statement contradicting the acceptance of responsibility by SCB set forth above or the facts described in the Factual Statement”). Any such statement constitutes a willful and material breach of the agreement.

This is where the theater of the absurd begins. For some reason, it took the bank 11 business days, not the required five, to issue a retraction. No doubt a number of people, in the private and public sectors, were asleep at the switch. (The Justice Department and Standard Chartered rebuffed my requests for details on the timeline.)

The implications of the affair are twofold. First, with his eventual retraction, Peace admitted that he misled investors. It also was an implicit admission that he had failed to issue a timely correction. Waiting 11 days to correct a material factual error is a serious breach of U.S. securities law for any nonfinancial company. Wake me when the Securities and Exchange Commission brings a case against Standard Chartered.

Of course, it’s possible that Peace didn’t deliberately violate the deferred prosecution agreement because he hadn’t read it, or at least not all the way to page 10. Peace is an accomplished professional with a long and distinguished track record. Everyone can have a forgetful moment. That still doesn’t explain why the bank took so long to correct the facts.

Leadership Matters

Tone at the top matters, as reporting around JPMorgan Chase and its relationship with regulators makes clear. Will Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon be more cooperative than he was, for example, in August 2011 when he refused to provide detailed information on the goings-on in his investment bank?

Why hasn’t Standard Chartered’s board, which is made up of talented and experienced individuals, forced out Peace as a result of this bungling? (I called for his resignation on my blog last week.)

The only possible explanation is that the board thinks Peace did nothing wrong. They may even regard U.S. laws as onerous and the Department of Justice as heavy-handed.

They would be entitled to their opinions, of course. But if they would like their bank to do business in the U.S., the rules are (supposedly) the rules. If used appropriately, permission to operate a bank in the U.S. grants the opportunity to earn a great deal of profit.

At a recent congressional hearing, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts asked what it would take for a company to lose its U.S. banking license. Specifically, “How many billions of dollars do you have to launder for drug lords?”

Powell, the Fed governor, replied that pulling a bank’s license may be “appropriate when there’s a criminal conviction.”

I have failed to find any cases of the Fed ordering the termination of banking activities in the U.S. for a foreign bank after a criminal conviction for money laundering. Nor, for that matter, has the Fed taken action to shut down a bank that signed a deferred prosecution agreement, which, in the case of Standard Chartered (STAN), was an acknowledgment of criminal wrongdoing. Nor has it taken action when such an agreement was violated.

To see what the Fed is empowered to do under the International Banking Act, and working with state authorities, look at the case of Daiwa Bank, which received an Order to Terminate United States Banking Activities in 1995. Note to big banks: Don’t allow illegal trading in the U.S. Treasury market; on this, we may still have standards. By the way, in the case of Daiwa, there was no criminal conviction.

Cleaning House

Last summer, when Barclays’s Chief Executive Officer Robert Diamond was less than fully cooperative with the Bank of England in providing details of the Libor scandal, he was gone within 24 hours. Any bank supervisor has the right and the obligation to force out a manager who impedes the proper functioning of the financial system.

The new CEO of Barclays (BARC) is trying to clean house. The obstreperous approach of the previous management set the tone for the entire organization, creating a mess of macroeconomic proportions.

Will any senior executives at Standard Chartered be forced out? Could the bank lose its ability to operate in the U.S.? Based on what we have seen so far, neither seems plausible.

If Standard Chartered violates its cease-and-desist order with the Fed, would it then lose its license? Not according to what Powell said in his congressional testimony. The Fed has no teeth whatsoever, at least when it comes to global megabanks, hence the continuing pattern of defiance from JPMorgan (JPM) and Dimon.

If you or I tried to launder money, even on a small scale, we would probably go to jail. But when the employees of a very big bank do so — on a grand scale and over many years — there are no meaningful consequences.

(Simon Johnson, a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management as well as a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is co-author of “White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters to You.” The opinions expressed are his own.)


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