LD Jackson
Political Realities
Okay, so does anyone not know that the next contest in the GOP nomination race is in South Carolina? That’s what I thought.
Since most of us are political junkies, we are fully aware of where the crowd and the media will be heading to next. South Carolina is well known in southern politics for having chosen the Republican nominee in the last umpteen elections. I forget the exact date, but they seem to have a knack for voting for the eventual nominee. They are also the first primary to take place in the South, so that carries some clout as well. So be it, I suppose. What I don’t understand is how so many pundits and so-called political experts are saying that if Mitt Romney wins South Carolina, the race for the nomination is all but over. Maybe it’s just my stubbornness kicking in, but I disagree. Allow me to explain.
I have said all along that Paul has a long-term strategy in play. I wrote about that strategy last week. As my crystal ball is broken, I can’t tell you what the future holds for the Paul campaign. The polls I am seeing at the moment have him holding steadily in the 10% range in South Carolina. Admittedly, the state will be a tougher sell for him, because of the strong presence of social conservatives. Some of them do not care for the Congressman’s particular brand of liberty and freedom, especially when it comes to gay marriage, drug use, and abortion. It remains to be seen if he can convince enough voters to take a closer look at his candidacy, without dismissing him out of hand for his views on those issues.
At the moment, it looks as if South Carolina will be a contest between Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, and Newt Gingrich to see if one of them can overtake Mitt Romney. He currently holds a double-digit lead in the polls. You can be sure, the attacks of recent days will continue, with Romney the main target. South Carolina is certainly no stranger to negative politics and I doubt it will be this time around. However, my main question still remains. How important is South Carolina, in the long-term?
Do you realize that South Carolina is breaking the rules by holding their primary in January? The rules established by the national Republican Party. They are doing so because they refuse to allow Florida to jump over them and hold the first primary in the South. By doing so, they are losing half of their delegates to the Republican National Convention, putting them at 25. Those delegates will be awarded to the winner of each congressional district in the state. That means the overall winner of the GOP primary does not take all of the delegates. I don’t know about the rest of you, but because I am supporting Ron Paul, that spells good news for me.
Even if Mitt Romney wins a sizable portion of the delegates in South Carolina, that does not mean he has a lock on the nomination. The last time I checked, the total delegate count to win the nomination stood at 1144. Let’s say Romney wins all 25 of the delegates up for grabs in South Carolina. That still leaves him 1105 short of the nomination, with 47 states still remaining to vote. Don’t you think they deserve a voice in the process?
Pie in the sky, you say? I have no trouble admitting that is probably true. However, the states still remaining after South Carolina will be states that Ron Paul will play well in. In many of them, he and Romney will be the only candidates on the ballot. It will be interesting to see how this plays out and how well Ron Paul can face up to Mitt Romney and his organization, one on one. I say again, do not count the man from Texas out of this race, not yet.
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