The Minnesota Twins contending this season despite sporting the American League’s fourth-worst run differential is astonishing. While the Twins are scoring 68 fewer runs than their opponents after a 6-4 loss to the Dodgers, Monday night, the Twins sit just two games out of the playoff picture and 3.5 games back in the AL Central. And the run differential is just the tip of the iceberg.


This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community of foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters and analysts providing coverage of select games.


 

  

The combined WAA (wins above average) between Twins batters and pitchers is -4.3 wins, meaning the team (excluding coaching factors) should be at least four games worse than average.

 

Given the games played as of this writing, the MLB average for wins would be 49.4, but the median is 48. The Twins have 49 wins, which means they have outperformed their WAA by almost four games using the average and five games using the median. All this while allowing 68 more runs than they’ve scored. It all screams regression, doesn’t it? In fact, I’d venture to bet there’s never been an MLB team that has overachieved more than the 2017 Twins thus far, and if there is one, it’s also a team from Twins history.

The 1987 and 2002 Minnesota Twins

It’s fitting the Twins just celebrated the 30th anniversary of the 1987 World Series Championship team at Target Field this weekend, because the 2017 Twins are a lot like that team. The Twins organization established a reputation as underdog overachievers immediately upon finding the ultimate success in 1987 and have continued that tradition to a fault at times.

 

Most of the ‘90s were tough on the Twins and their fans. The pitch-to-contact approach started resulting in harder contact, and payrolls plummeted along with Metrodome attendance, as a slew of youngsters like 21-year-old shortstop Christian Guzman and 23-year-old center fielder Torii Hunter played almost everyday. I remember people joking about how the Twins wouldn’t beat most AAA teams, but everything came together just in time to quiet discussions of contracting the team.

 

A surprising second-place finish in the AL Central in 2001 that saw Matt Lawton grace the cover of Sports Illustrated blew new life into the Metrodome. And in 2002, the pesky piranhas were AL Central champions, fielding the youngest and fourth-cheapest roster in baseball. While the 2002 Twins entered the playoffs with the lowest run differential that year, they still scored 56 more runs than they allowed. But that squad had a combined WAA of +6.3 and finished 94-67, outperforming that WAA by a ridiculous seven wins over the average and 8 wins over the median MLB record in 2002.

 

Despite it all ending in the ALCS, that’s still my favorite Twins team. I feel like they did the most with the least, and the numbers seem to substantiate that feeling. It just feels better to win as an underdog overachiever, even if you don’t win it all.

 

The 1987 Twins did win it all, though, and did so despite entering the playoffs having posted a run differential of -20 during the regular season and outperforming their -.8 WAA. Those Twins went 85-77 in 1987, which would be outperforming their WAA by almost five wins based on the MLB average and median for wins that season.

 

The 1984 Royals are the only other team besides the ‘87 Twins to win the World Series despite a negative regular season run differential since 1960 (and likely ever). They had a -13 run differential and finished the regular season 84-78, outperforming their .1 WAA by almost three games on average and four games taking the median MLB record.

 

The team with the lowest run differential entering the playoffs was the 2005 San Diego Padres at -42, in a year when every team in the NL West had a negative run differential, and only the Padres had a winning record (82-80). They outperformed their -3.2 WAA by four games on average but just three games on the median MLB record.

 

Again, the 2017 Twins are outperforming their WAA by four games on average and five games given the median record -- with a run differential 62 percent lower than that of the 2005 Padres, 70 percent lower than the 1987 Twins and 182 percent less than the 2002 Twins!

 

The Twins making the playoffs isn’t just improbable. It would challenge everything we think we know about what makes a playoff baseball team, just as the Twins did in 1987. The 1987 Twins might have hit a lot of home runs, but they won games with defense. The only regulars with negative total zone defensive runs saved averages over the course of 135 games were Kirby Puckett and Tim Laudner (each at -8). And while three players had RARs (runs above a replacement player) above 40 (Puckett, Kent Hrbeck and Greg Gagne), most of the pitching staff had lower strikeout rates than the current Twins’ staff. Frank Viola averaged just seven strikeouts per nine innings and was the only starter with an ERA below three, so the ball was being put in play, and the Twins were picking it.

What a Difference a Year Makes

The Twins have improved their run differential from last season by 98 runs thus far, and it’s still the fourth-worst differential in baseball. That’s how bad the Twins were last season, and the roster has hardly changed, so there are some things working in the Twins favor.

 

If you think a weak AL Central is the reason for the Twins’ contention, then you also have to blame most of the American League given the Wild Card standings. While a drop in relative competitiveness allows more teams to hang in the race longer, it does little to explain the 98-run improvement.

 

Actually, the Twins’ schedule thus far has probably contributed more to their seemingly unsustainable success than a lack of competitive teams in their league. The Twins remain the second best road team in the AL behind Houston, but they’ve played nine fewer road games than home games going into Tuesday. And as of Monday, they had played 10 fewer road games than the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers, who are all still in the hunt. Translation: the Twins’ schedule is about to get tougher, as they saw first-hand on Monday when the L.A. Goliath finally knocked out the pesky David of the Midwest in the eighth. But instead of simply marveling at the Twins’ improbable season, let me attempt to explain the extent of its improbability.

The Good

There are some easy answers with regards to runs contributed this year that weren’t there last year, like Miguel Sano improving his RAA (runs above average) 19 points after a 2016 season spent lost in right field so Paul Molitor could accommodate Trevor Plouffe. Sano has arguably become the Twins’ best player at 24 years old -- three years younger than Kent Hrbek was when he was second on the 1987 squad with 21 RAA. Sano is also second on his team in RAA, which is why I say he’s arguably the Twins’ best player..

 

Enter Byron Buxton, the player for whom statistics like range factor and runs added from baserunning were invented. If Buxton was playing anytime before these statistics came around, I feel he’d have a much harder time sticking in the bigs. Buxton’s .604 OPS is last among center fielders with 250 plate appearances, and he’s 14 runs worse than the average hitter so far this season. He’s no ‘87 Puckett at the plate, but his ability to play center field and run the bases make that all matter a whole lot less -- a ton less, in fact.

 

Buxton is four runs better than average on the bases, and 18 runs better than average in center field, which is eerily similar to Greg Gagne’s defensive contribution for the ‘87 Twins (19). Gagne finished the year leading his team with 23 RAA despite negative contributions at-bat and on the bases. Buxton is on pace to lead his team in RAA this season, too

 

So despite his 62 OPS+, Buxton is worth 11 runs more than a replacement player because he can catch balls no one else can and score from first base on a single. Puckett couldn’t do that, and if Buxton comes back from his groin injury on Tuesday and hits, he could chase down Puckett’s incredible 44 RAR in 1987. Buxton’s RAR sits at 22, tied with Sano for the team lead amongst batters despite playing seven fewer games.

 

One of the Twins best pitchers has been Jose Berrios, who was living a nightmare on the mound in 2016 and has improved his RAA from -25 to 6. While his win-loss percentage with an average team (.551) is more comparable to the Bert Blyleven’s (.558) from 1987 than 27-year-old Frank Viola’s (.664), he’s four years younger than Viola, and hasn’t had to perform like him thanks to Ervin Santana.

 

Despite his inconsistencies, Santana has been the Viola for the 2017 Twins. While his .612 win-loss percentage with an average team is not vintage Viola, it has been 21 runs better than average, which leads the team.

 

It all up and that’s 54 runs of improvement between three players all under 25, and another two from Santana so far. So the kids are growing up just fine, and Papi Santana has set a great example for Berrios, in his good starts and bad.

The Bad and the Ugly

Speaking of bad, there are plenty of Twins who have been worse than last year, too. Kyle Gibson’s RAA is 10 runs worse than last season (-17), Jorge Polanco’s RAA is down seven runs, and Ryan Pressly has been nine runs worse than average after posting a +3 last season. Our 56 runs of improvement is now 17.

 

The 1987 Twins were not without their Gibsons, Polancos and Presslys, either. The Gibson was probably Mike Smithson (-15 RAA in 20 starts). The Polanco of the 1987 Twins was likely Gene Larkin, who was in his rookie season, so he has an excuse for his -11 RAA in 262 plate appearances. As for the Ryan Pressly of ‘87, George Frazier was seven runs worse than average in 81.1 innings.

 

But who’s the Bartolo Colon of the ‘87 Twins? Easy: 42-year-old Joe Niekro was 20 runs below average in 96.1 innings pitched.

The Twins Way, Est. 1987: Defense

One of the biggest reasons for the Twins turnaround is the first move new president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine made -- signing free agent catcher Jason Castro. I loved the move then, and still love it, despite having to watch Castro swing and miss so much.

 

Castro doesn’t hit well -- even for a catcher. His OPS is 17th out of 18 catchers who have at least 250 plate appearances when they wear the gear. If you lower the required plate appearances to 150, he’s well behind the Twins’ former catcher Kurt Suzuki, who is ninth amongst catchers with an .816 OPS.

 

Suzuki’s defensive contribution this season is also his best since 2012. The uptick could very well be that he has his legs under him (he’s caught just 345.1 innings), but even if Suzuki finishes the season having contributed 14 runs on defense, he still falls short of Castro’s contribution.

 

Like Buxton, Castro makes up for his woes at the plate on defense. Castro is worth 22 defensive runs above average over the course of 135 games. Suzuki checks in at 14 defensive runs above average this season, but is 12 runs below average per season for his career as a catcher. Again, even assuming Suzuki’s improved defense is not inflated due to sample size (it is), Castro, with the second-worst OPS at his position, is worth 14 RAR, and Suzuki, with the ninth-best OPS at his position, is worth just 11 RAR.

 

Furthermore, if we consider the performance of Twins’ catchers last year compared to this year, the net gain for the Twins is 28 fielding runs above average. That would account for almost a third of the Twins’ improvement, bringing our rough total to 45 runs of improvement.

 

There’s really no comparison for Castro from the 1987 Twins’ catching corps. The ‘87 backstops were a combined 39 runs worse than average. When it comes to win-loss percentage with an average team over 162 games, Tom Brunansky was fourth (.503) on the ‘87 Twins just as Castro is with the 2017 Twins (.502).

The Key is Charisma

Eduardo Escobar is the ultimate utility man, not because he can play just about anywhere, including catcher apparently, but because he provides the energy and attitude the Twins need to make a push for the playoffs. His smile and charisma are infectious, and he’s an essential leader in the clubhouse. I thought Falvey and Levine might consider trading him given his value to a contender, but I’m glad the Twins have forced the front office to chase history so Escobar can stick around.

 

While Escobar’s runs above average numbers are mostly negative (except running the bases), all have improved substantially from last season. His RAR has improved by 12 compared to last year, which brings our total runs of improvement to 57.

 

Escobar is the Dan Gladden of this Twins team. Gladden managed to be 12 runs better than a replacement despite costing the 1987 Twins 15 runs swinging the bat.

Kintzler Closes the Door

Brandon Kintzler has been nine runs above average in the closer role this season. That’s four runs better than last season already, which makes 61 runs of improvement.

 

Reliver Juan Berenguer was nine runs above average over 112 innings for the 1987 Twins, but he wasn’t the closer, and I don’t think Kintzler should be, either. The bullpen is the area where the Twins could stand to improve the most (read: acquire Brad Hand).

 

While the 1987 Twins relievers posted a RAA of -49, current Twins relievers (excluding the catcher Gimenez, who has been just one run below average in five innings) are sporting an RAA of -87 already. Adding Hand’s 12 RAA would allow the 2017 Twins to act a lot more like the 1987 Twins.

Trouble in Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood?

Taylor Rogers has been fantastic until recently. His RAA was eight entering Monday’s game, and after allowing the go-ahead, three-run home run in the eighth inning on Monday, it is now six. That’s still second amongst Twins relievers, and he’s a big reason the Twins have managed to hang in games despite a drop in his strikeout rate from last year (9.4 to 6.5 K/9).

 

I kept waiting for the regression given his 4.05 FIP, 2.15 ERA and 71 percent balls-in-play percentage, and I think we’re starting to see that regression with his blown hold in Los Angeles, Monday night. Ideally, he would be pitching the seventh inning if the Twins could acquire bullpen help before the Trade Deadline. He’s contributed five more runs than last year so far, though, bringing us to 66 runs of improvement.

Mejia will Lull You to Sleep

When it comes to pace of play, Adalberto Mejia is the sloth of Major League Baseball. In his start Sunday the Twins set the record for the longest regulation game in franchise history: 4 hours and 23 minutes, I believe. As you fall in and out of sleep while watching Mejia, you’ll dream of comparisons like Les Straker. But Mejia’s 4 RAA better this year than last (70) and is just 24.

The Moneyball Man

Robbie Grossman got my MLB All-Star vote at designated hitter because he had the highest on-base percentage amongst his peers, and walks are as good as hits. While he’s a liability in the outfield, his approach at the plate is straight out of the moneyball era. And in an era of home run or nothing at all, having a guy who can work counts and get on base before the free swingers is a nice piece to have available.

 

Grossman has 50 walks in 317 plate appearances and leads the Twins in that category. His .373 OBP is also best on the team, and while Grossman’s OPS+ is just 103, it’s better than Joe Mauer’s 101. His RAR of three doesn’t quite touch Mauer’s, though, and is the same as 2016’s, so no runs of improvement available here. But without Grossman, Twins fans would be forced to watch the struggles of Kennys Vargas, whose RAR is down three from last year.

 

Grossman also cost the Twins 21 runs playing defense last year. Molitor has managed to limit that damage to just four runs this season by keeping Grossman in the dugout more often. It adds up to a six-run increase in RAA for Grossman since last season (76 runs of improvement).

Mauer Coming of Age

Joe Mauer is going to win the AL Gold Glove for his performance at first base this season, and it will have little to do with the fact he hasn’t committed an error as of this writing. His defensive runs saved (8) and total zone runs saved per year (6) is better than the defending Gold Glove winner, Mitch Moreland (7 and 1, respectively). Mauer’s range factor and his OPS+, which does matter despite it being a fielding award, are also higher than Moreland’s, and his 1.3 WAR just trails All-Star first baseman Yonder Alonso’s 1.5. Mauer’s basically been Roy Smalley, which isn’t bad.

Will Twins Repeat Recent or Distant History?

Twins hitters are a collective one run above average in 2017 but 58 runs better than last season. Twins pitchers are 62 runs below average this season but also 58 runs better than last season. That’s 116 runs of improvement, and given the 98 runs of improvement at which they currently stand as a team, the Twins’ run differential is likely to get worse barring any trades that might occur.

 

Jaime Garcia should help delay the inevitable. His RAA of three is 20 runs better than Gibson’s, who was demoted despite having his best start of the season on Saturday against Detroit. Falvey and Levine are going to stick with Colon for at least another start, which is fine. Gibson has been far from consistent, and you have to give the veteran a chance to see a lineup that’s not the Dodgers or Yankees before you ask him to gracefully retire. He kept the Twins in that game in Los Angeles, Monday, even contributing a sacrifice bunt to the delight of his teammates. His butt also puts butts in the seats.

 

While adding Garcia is like adding another Les Straker, the Twins don’t even have enough Les Straker’s let alone Frank Viola’s to make a playoff push right now. If they add an arm to the bullpen, though, the Twins could make history, and I think they should go ahead and chase history. Sure, if they make the playoffs they’d go down as the absolute worst team ever to do so based on run differential. But that would likely make them one of the biggest underdogs of all time, and if they continue to outperform their WAA at the same rate, they’d be right up there with the 1987 and 2002 Twins as the biggest overachievers in baseball history.

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Published in News & Information

The Major League Baseball Trade Deadline is one of the most exciting days of my year. I’ve taken the day off from work in the past to keep an eye on deadline moves that would make or break teams’ seasons. Here’s a reason for fans of every team to have hope at the MLB Trade Deadline.


 

This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community of foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing uncensored, commercial-free play-by-play and color commentary during select games. 


 

The Buyers

Houston Astros

Reason for hope: The Astros are frontrunners with the throttle floored and no one in the rearview mirror. Making moves at the Trade Deadline in every sport can torpedo a team, though. Think of how the Minnesota Wild stumbled into the Stanley Cup Playoffs this year. Houston’s reason for hope is they’re really good already, but they’ll likely add a starting pitcher to turn that hope into high expectations.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Reason for hope: The Dodgers are hardly the Astros’ equivalent of the National League. While they led Houston by a half game at the All-Star Break, the next three closest teams in the overall standings were in the National League. Arizona was 7.5 games back on Monday, while Boston was 10 games behind Houston. The Dodgers can afford to make a move, and have been linked with closer Justin Wilson and were intrigued with J.D. Martinez before the season. Those moves could help the Dodgers pull away from the rest of the National League in the hunt for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Reason for hope: The Diamondbacks have the pitching to compete in the playoffs. They’ve allowed the second fewest runs behind the Dodgers. It will be interesting to see if Zack Godley can continue his fantastic season thus far (181 ERA+, .947 WHIP in 69.2 IP).

Despite all that, the Diamondbacks are going all-in this year, looking for pitching depth and a bat they can use either in the infield or outfield. My guess is they’ll target a fourth or fifth starter for a playoff push (Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Jaime Garcia, Scott Feldman), a closer (David Robertson, Brad Hand, Brandon Kintzler) and a bench bat (Seth Smith?). I wouldn’t count them out on Chicago’s Jose Quintana, though, either.

Washington Nationals

Reason for hope: Like the Dodgers, the Nationals have the most important thing going into the playoffs -- premiere starting pitching. Now they need a premiere closer. Also like the Dodgers, they’re apparently interested in Justin Wilson.  

Boston Red Sox

Reason for hope: Boston leads the very tough AL East and has the starting pitching to stay there, so they can afford to take it slow. They’re waiting to investigate bullpen trades, but will probably pick up someone for lower-leverage situations. Maybe they’ll deal with Minnesota like they did last year in acquiring Fernando Abad for Pat Light, who was ultimately released. They could get Brandon Kintzler and move him from the ninth inning to the sixth or seventh -- or just when no one’s on base.

Colorado Rockies

Reason for hope: All’s quiet on the Western front. The Rockies had the second wild card locked up with the defending champions 8.5 back at the All-Star break, but they did already acquire Zac Rosscup from the Cubs. He’s dealing at AAA Iowa (12.7 K/9 and 1.048 WHIP) and could help keep his old team out of the playoffs.

Milwaukee Brewers

Reason for hope: The Cubs were 5.5 back of Milwaukee at the break, and the Brewers won’t be seeking rentals. The Brewers also have injury issues. It doesn’t sound very hopeful, right? Well, there’s still outfielder Lewis Brinson, who’s recovering nicely at AAA (.985 OPS) from a bad cup of coffee in the bigs (3-for-31). He’ll be back and better than he was, giving Ryan Braun time to heal. Look for the Brewers to target young, controllable pitching (Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray), but don’t expect anything too crazy (more likely is a controllable bullpen arm like Brad Hand or Cincinnati's Tony Cingrani).

Cleveland Indians

Reason for hope: The Indians lead the deep AL Central, but Kansas City is lurking, and the Minnesota Twins just won’t quit. Getting Danny Salazar and Jason Kipnis back healthy should help, although neither were performing well before their injuries. Losing Austin Jackson for most of July is the biggest hit the Indians have taken besides that to their manager, Terry Francona, who’s recovering from surgery addressing an irregular heartbeat. So there’s likely a move that needs to be made to keep Cleveland in front of the surging Royals, and it’s probably in the form of a fourth outfielder who can play center. The return of Rajai Davis makes sense, especially given his ability to steal a bag. He led the league with 43 steals with Cleveland last year at the age of 35.

New York Yankees

Reason for hope: The Yankees’ have starting pitching depth (and a great rotation if Masahiro Tanaka figures it out) and a dynamite bullpen. The chink in the Yankee armor might be at first base, unless Gi-Man Choi continues to homer every six at-bats. The Chris Carter experiment has failed miserably thus far, but there’s not a lot of right-handed, first basemen available via trade. The Giants are reportedly shopping Brandon Belt, who’s signed for $17.2 million annually over the next four years, or the Yankees could acquire a lefty-swinging, first baseman (Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, or even Yonder Alonso) for less since Carter’s a free agent after the end of next year.

Kansas City Royals

Reason for hope: The Royals have recovered nicely from a slow start and look like a playoff team. Boy, do they need a shortstop, though. Alcides Escobar has been historically bad at the plate (43 OPS+), but continues to show above-average range at short while being average overall on defense.

Switch-hitting Freddy Galvis might be all the Royals need to make another run at a World Series. They would lose a few runs defensively, but Galvis’s OPS+ is more than double Escobar’s (90), and Escobar could come off the bench as a defensive replacement.

The Contenders

Minnesota Twins

Reason for hope: The Twins are investigating trades for controllable starting pitching. That would include Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole, Julio Teheran and Dan Straily. The Twins have the prospects to acquire any one of the five mentioned, any one of which would be a lift for a team that’s had a revolving door that’s seen Nik Turly, Felix Jorge, Adam Wilk and Nick Tepesch split seven starts amongst them. The Twins won one of those seven games, which forced them to hope Bartolo Colon returns to the form that made him an All-Star last season at the age of 43.

Not only are the Twins having trouble fielding competitive starting pitchers, the starters they’ve thrown out there don’t go deep into games. Kyle Gibson is averaging five innings pitched per start. Adalberto Mejia is averaging five innings pitched per start. Hector Santiago was averaging five innings pitched per start before going on the 10-day disabled list. Only All-Star Ervin Santana and phenom Jose Berrios have managed to get into the sixth inning regularly, so there’s a need for bullpen arms in Minnesota, too.

I fully expect Falvey and Levine to be one of the many teams vying for Brad Hand, who graduated high school in Chaska, Minn. If the asking price is too high, they will find somebody, because they’ll likely take advantage of All-Star closer Brandon Kintzler’s high value and trade him due to his expiring contract. The trade market is always full of reliable relief pitching, but it generally comes at a high price. It’ll be even higher for the Twins’ Falvey and Levine because they’re seeking controllable pitching (think Hand, Justin Wilson, David Phelps, Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, and AJ Ramos).  

Tampa Bay Rays

Reason for hope: The Rays are the complete opposite of the Twins. They have competitive starting pitching and a good bullpen (four relievers have an ERA+ above 100). While they could really use an upgrade the fifth time through the rotation, they hope Blake Snell either returns to form (113 ERA+ in 2016 compared to 87 this season) or Futures Game MVP Brett Honeywell is that upgrade.

The Rays even have a lineup that can compete in the playoffs. Mallex Smith has been a fine replacement for Kevin Kiermaier in center field and at the plate. While they’ve lost Colby Rasmus for the rest of July, they have outfield depth in Peter Bourjos and Shane Peterson. The Rays are just looking for a bullpen arm, but might have what they need with Brad Boxberger returning from injury. They’ve also transitioned Chih-Wei Hu to the bullpen, and he could be a contributor when rosters expand. Hu was acquired from the Twins last year for Kevin Jepsen, who is currently seeking work.

Chicago Cubs

Reason for hope: The Cubs are the defending champs and are chasing a young Milwaukee Brewers team in the NL Central. If that’s not enough reason for Cubs fans to have hope, then here are a few more reasons: Kyle Hendricks comes off the disabled list after the All-Star Break, Jake Arrieta is at his best in the season’s final two months (1.100 WHIP in August, .896 WHIP in September and October over his career), and Kyle Schwarber seemed to figure something out at AAA Iowa (1.192 OPS in 44 PAs there and 4-for-14 with 2 doubles and a homer since his return).

Chicago has called just about everyone looking for starters, but Theo Epstein isn’t going to sacrifice the farm for the season. Cubs fans can expect a move for a backend starter, which could help them catch Milwaukee.

St. Louis Cardinals

Reason for hope: The Cardinals’ starting rotation is legit, and I doubt they intend to break it up via trades. They even watched Jose Quintana and have expressed interest in Toronto third baseman Josh Donaldson, so the Cardinals are betting they aren’t out of the NL Central. And that’s exactly what they should do. They were tied with the Cubs just 5.5 games back of the division-leading Brewers at the All-Star Break, so the Cardinals could be buying at the deadline.

Los Angeles Angels

Reason for hope: Mike Trout returns Friday, and the Angels have expressed interest in Miami’s Dee Gordon. They even scouted Jose Quintana, so it looks like the Angels are all-in this season despite their best starter being Alex Meyer (102 ERA+). They do have the bullpen to close games, and an offense that has the potential to score runs with the return of Trout. Put Gordon at second base, and you’ve got a team that can steal some bases (if Trout ever steals again given the injury) and steal a run or two on defense. It will take more than Quintana to shore up the starting pitching, though.

Texas Rangers

Reason for hope: The Rangers still have Yu Darvish, and will likely get four more starts out of him before they’re forced to decide whether to buy or sell. They entered the All-Star Break just three games back of both Wild Card spots and have the second-highest run differential amongst the teams contending for the Wild Card (+29), so Texas could be right in the thick of things come the end of July.

The Rangers’ pitching staff outside of Darvish is pretty darn good, too, so don’t think moving Darvish will end their playoff push necessarily. But Andrew Cashner and Cole Hamels have been lucky, each sporting an ERA almost a run less than their respective FIPs.

Even with their big Trade Deadline acquisition from last year, Jonathan Lucroy, having an OPS+ that’s 55 points lower than last season’s, the Rangers look like buyers. Robinson Chirinos has been picking up the slack at catcher, and the only performance that’s been truly troublesome is that of second baseman Rougned Odor, who’s having the worst year of his young career (73 OPS+ is 20 points lower than that of his rookie season). The Rangers’ fate likely depends on him.

Seattle Mariners

Reason for hope: Seattle’s not out of it yet. The Mariners were just four games back of both Wild Card spots at the All-Star Break. They have competent starters (if they can stay on the field), a great bullpen and a lineup that can score in bunches. General manager Jerry Dipoto is even willing to take on more payroll at the Trade Deadline given the large investment already made this season ($155.2 million). Don’t be surprised if he scores Yu Darvish.

Toronto Blue Jays

Reason for hope: The Blue Jays were five games back of a Wild Card spot at the break and, like the Angels, have shown interest in Dee Gordon and Jose Quintana. Toronto has three solid starters and a fantastic bullpen, but Troy Tulowitzki hasn’t been the Tulo of old. He’s having the worst offensive season of his career since entering the league, mostly due to a .450 OPS against left-handers this season. Someone like the Twins’ Eduardo Escobar (career .770 OPS against lefties) could allow Toronto to platoon Tulo until he’s right, but the Blue Jays might roll with what they’ve got and see where they stand at the end of July.

The Sellers

Atlanta Braves

Reason for hope: The signing of Kurt Suzuki to a one-year, $1.5 million deal hasn’t burned the Braves, and there’s always a team looking for a catcher at the deadline. Atlanta could score something of value thanks to Suzuki’s best offensive year since his All-Star season with Minnesota in 2014. He’s even throwing out more runners than he has since 2012. Trading Suzuki will also allow Tyler Flowers more at-bats against lefties (just 23 PAs this season).

Baltimore Orioles

Reason for hope: While Baltimore sits a game ahead of Toronto in the AL East, their run differential is 14 runs worse. The Orioles are not contenders because just one of their starters, Dylan Bundy, has an ERA+ over 100 (and it’s 101). They should be shopping both Zach Britton and Brad Brach, who could both close for a contender and come with an extra year of arbitration eligibility, which should lift the potential return for the Orioles. They’ll likely move just one, and likely the one who brings the best return, which could be Brach given Britton’s much larger salary and injury issues this season.  

Pittsburgh Pirates

Reason for hope: So far it seems the Pirates are unwilling to trade their biggest trade chips -- Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen -- but that could all change come the end of July. Ken Rosenthal thinks Josh Harrison is a fit for Boston, but even that’s a stretch. The biggest reason for hope in Pittsburgh at the Trade Deadline is the return of left fielder Starling Marte from his PED suspension.

New York Mets

Reason for hope: With any luck, Mets fans should get to see Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia all pitch in July. And since the Mets have no interest in trading Steven Matz, it’s vitally important that expiring contracts Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce are moved for what should be nice returns. Both players boast an OPS+ of 125 or higher, and should draw plenty of interest from clubs seeking left-handed bats.

Miami Marlins

Reason for hope: Dee Gordon is drawing a crowd, and while he can be controlled through 2021, the Marlins could make a killing by moving him given the interest. I’m guessing the Marlins would like to be competing in three years or so, when Giancarlo Stanton is still in his prime.

Starter Dan Straily and reliever David Phelps are also drawing a ton of interest, and while the Marlins would be giving up multiple years of control with both pitchers, the returns should be fantastic.

Detroit Tigers

Reason for hope: J.D. Martinez must be moved if the Tigers don’t intend to extend him. His contract is expiring at the end of the year, and he happens to be entering free agency after his best season ever (.991 OPS, 159 OPS+). Packaging him with Justin Wilson should set the Tigers up with more than half a starting lineup of high-ceiling prospects. While the window has closed in Detroit, a new window can be opened through these two players.  

Oakland Athletics

Reason for hope: Yonder Alonso should command a king’s ransom, and as I mentioned earlier, the Yankees are a logical fit. Sonny Gray could be moved, but Oakland would lose the affordable control it has over the righty until 2020. Rajai Davis should draw interest from a playoff-bound team based on his baserunning ability alone. Billy Beane never disappoints at the Trade Deadline, so A’s fans have plenty of reasons for hope.

Chicago White Sox

Reason for hope: Jose Quintana and David Robertson are already drawing plenty of interest, and both should bring solid returns. Number one on Kenny Williams’ list to move, though, is Todd Frazier’s expiring contract. The Todd-father has once again managed an OPS+ over 100 and is serviceable at third base defensively. The Yankees could be a fit, given Chase Headley’s 87 OPS+ this season.

Cincinnati Reds

What to watch: Zack Cozart is a prime trade candidate. His OPS this season is 241 points higher than his career OPS. He’s 31 and a free agent at the end of the season. Cozart will almost certainly have a new team in August and beyond. The Reds should demand a lot for the shortstop, and move Scott Feldman, too. Feldman’s contract is also up at the end of the year, and he’s somehow raised is K/9 by one from last season (7.5). He’d be a great addition for a team in the hunt looking to shore up the back end of its rotation (Chicago Cubs?) .

San Diego Padres

Reason for hope: Brad Hand is probably the most valuable reliever available and comes with two years of team control after this season. If you think pitching in Petco Park has helped him, that’s not the case. Hand has nearly doubled his K/9 since 2015 -- from 6.5 to 11.5. The Padres should get exactly what they want for him and nothing less.

Trevor Cahill is a free agent at the end of the year and has returned to his 2015 form, striking out 11.2 batters per nine innings. He hasn’t been helped by Petco Park, either. His FIP (3.50) is just marginally higher than his ERA (3.38). The Padres should end up with a nice return for one of the cheapest rentals on the market (owed less than $1 million the rest of the season).

San Francisco Giants

Reason for hope: The Giants are reportedly taking offers on Brandon Belt, who could be another target of the Yankees. It would also open the door for Buster Posey to transition to first base full-time at some point. Belt would command quite a haul despite his contract due to his consistency throughout his career. He’s never posted an OPS+ below 100 and has played 799 games over his seven seasons so far.

Nick Hundley is an under-the-radar name to watch at the deadline. He’s a solid catcher offensively (91 OPS+) and about average defensively. He could help a bunch of teams looking for a platoon option at catcher down the stretch (Colorado and Arizona could use catchers that can hit right-handed pitching).

Eduardo Nunez is also a player who can help a playoff-bound club. He can play third, short or left field and runs the bases well. If he can show he’s healthy coming off the 10-day DL, expect him to draw interest, albeit for a limited price.

Philadelphia Phillies

Reason for hope: Pat Neshek is an expiring contract who will be moved and should bring a nice return given his unique delivery that has allowed him to flourish late in his career. He’s an All-Star at 36, and would be a welcome addition to a playoff team’s bullpen.

Daniel Nava is another expiring contract, and he’s having his best year since 2013. At 34, he won’t be back with Philadelphia next year, so the Phillies should get whatever they can for the switch-hitting outfielder who still saves a lot of runs on defense.

Freddy Galvis is set to earn more than $5 million in arbitration next year and will be a free agent after, so Philly might as well take advantage of his best offensive season and deal him to a contender. See, even Phillies fans have reasons for hope at the MLB Trade Deadline.

Even if your team is a seller, the MLB Trade Deadline can be a day that changes your team’s future and fortunes forever.  

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Unlike the NBA All-Star Game, every team is represented in the MLB All-Star Game in Miami on Tuesday, so every fan has at least one reason to watch. The best All-Star event in sports, though, takes place Monday, with the Home Run Derby taking flight on ESPN at 8 p.m. (EST).

 

Here’s every fan’s reason to watch the Home Run Derby or MLB All-Star Game.


 

This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community of foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing uncensored, commercial-free play-by-play and color commentary during select games.


 

The Buyers

Houston Astros

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: While there’s no benefit to Houston if the American League wins the All-Star Game, there will be three reasons to watch the game. Carlos Correa and George Springer will both start in their All-Star Game debuts, and Jose Altuve will join them as a starter for his fifth appearance.

 

The best part about the MLB All-Star Game is that it creates matchups fans don’t get to see very often, outside of interleague play and the World Series. If Max Scherzer gets the ball while the Astros are in the game, Astros fans will want to know if their youngsters can hit the Nationals’ ace if they happen to meet in the World Series. So far, Altuve is 2-for-11 against Scherzer, Correa is hitless in six at-bats, and Springer is 2-for-6 with three strikeouts.

Los Angeles Dodgers

What to watch: Home Run Derby

Reason to watch: With Clayton Kershaw starting on Sunday and ineligible for the All-Star Game, Dodger fans will have to wait until the late innings to see Kenley Jansen. But rookie Cody Bellinger will be worth watching in the Home Run Derby. He’s got 25 homers in his first season and hasn’t shown any sign of slowing down (150 OPS+). He’s averaging almost one dinger per 10 at-bats. He takes on Colorado’s Charlie Blackmon in the first round of the derby.

Arizona Diamondbacks

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: A surprise to many, the Diamondbacks are contending thanks to pitching. Arizona fans will get to see if starters Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray can handle the spotlight, as both will likely pitch in the early innings against some of the best hitters the American League has to offer.

 

George Springer is 3-for-6 with two doubles and a walk against Ray, and Michael Brantley is five-for-16 with a double and home run against Greinke.

 

Don’t forget about the powerful Paul Goldschmidt and third baseman Jake Lamb. Lamb hasn’t seen much of the AL All-Star pitchers, so this will be the opportunity to show Diamondback fans what he’s got.

Washington Nationals

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Max Scherzer will probably get the start for the National League, and he should be fun to watch. AL starter at first base, Justin Smoak, is 1-for-13 against Scherzer. Jose Altuve is 2-for-11. Jose Ramirez is 1-for-6, and George Springer is 2-for-6 with three strikeouts. But look for Scherzer to be tested by AL catcher Salvador Perez if the two meet. Perez has been a pest to Scherzer, going 10-for-29 with a .987 OPS against the righty.

 

Ryan Zimmerman is also starting his first All-Star Game and is 0-for-2 versus Chris Sale. Hit machine Daniel Murphy will join him on the right side of the infield, and will likely get his first look at Sale.

Boston Red Sox

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Mookie Betts will start in place of the injured Mike Trout, and he has never seen Scherzer. He’s also 0-for-2 with a strikeout against Greinke, so Red Sox fans should tune in to see how the youngster fares in a possible preview of World Series matchups.

Colorado Rockies

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Charlie Blackmon has two hits in his only two at-bats against Sale. Joining him in the starting lineup is teammate Nolan Arenado. DJ LeMahieu will likely relieve Murphy at second base, and Colorado fans will hope to see him get his first hit off Minnesota’s Ervin Santana. He’s 0-for-5 in seven plate appearances so far.

 

Rockies fans will also want to know if Greg Holland can be depended upon to get some of baseball’s best hitters out in high-leverage situations. Miguel Sano is 2-for-3 off him, and Chicago’s Avisail Garcia is 2-for-8.

Milwaukee Brewers

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Corey Knebel has been one of the most underrated relievers in baseball thus far (15.8 K/9, 1.171 WHIP). He hasn’t had many chances to see the NL All-Stars, but will get that chance on Tuesday. Michael Brantley is the only AL All-Star with a hit against Knebel.

Cleveland Indians

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Jose Ramirez can prove he’s for real. Ramirez has been a darkhorse MVP candidate this season, carrying a Cleveland squad that’s had injury and offensive consistency issues. But Ramirez has been the model of consistency, and he shouldn’t be the darkhorse, he should be the frontrunner.

 

At 24, Ramirez has smashed 16 homers that have lifted his OPS to a ridiculous .980 and his OPS+ to 147. That’s 26 points higher than Edwin Encarnacion, and it’s not even the most impressive thing about Ramirez’s season. Through 348 plate appearances, he’s struck out just 39 times.

 

Ramirez has already proven himself against AL aces. He’s 5-for-14 with an .831 OPS against Chris Sale, but hasn’t had too much luck against Max Scherzer (1-for-6, 2B, 2 Ks). With Ramirez starting for the American League at third base, Cleveland fans should watch and see what he could potentially do if the Indians find themselves in the World Series again.

New York Yankees

What to watch: Home Run Derby and All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Aaron Judge. This kid just broke the franchise record for homers in a rookie season with 30, and there’s still three months of baseball to be played. He’s also hit the fastest recorded home run (of which we know the exit velocity) and the longest home run of the season (of which we know the distance; more on this later). He’s going to hit a bunch of baseballs over 500 feet. Oh, and he’s starting in the outfield for the American League in the All-Star Game and will likely get his first plate appearance against Max Scherzer and Zach Greinke.

Kansas City Royals

What to watch: Home Run Derby

Reason to watch: Mike Moustakas is not missing the mistakes. That’s all Moustakas will see in the home run derby -- mistakes. His 25 homers this year are a career best -- three more than the 22 he hit in all of 2015. He’ll do battle against divisional foe Miguel Sano in the first round of the derby. Speaking of Sano...

The Contenders

Minnesota Twins

What to watch: Home Run Derby and All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Like Judge, Miguel Sano is making his debut in both the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game. Remember when I mentioned that Judge hit the longest home run of which we know the distance this season? Well, Miguel Sano hit a ball so hard and so far it broke Statcast. It’s been over a week, and we still don’t know how far this ball went (but Andrew Mearns and Rhett Bollinger came up with an estimate of at least 485 feet, which would be the second longest home run this season). I never saw it land. It disappeared having gone into (or over) the Miller Lite Fountain Bar. I’ve called Kauffman Stadium, and no one there can tell me how far that is from home plate. I’m tracking down the city planner now, hoping to find some blueprints of the stadium. I think they should break out a tape measure, but we might never know how far that ball would have traveled had it not hit a wall. One hundred years from now people will talk about Sano’s homer like we do some of Harmon Killebrew’s mythical moonshots.

 

Not only will Sano provide plenty of Sano-doubters in the home run derby, but Twins fans will get a chance to see him take whacks against some of the hardest-throwing, nastiest National League pitchers. The big man’s been carrying the Twins to a surprising first half, and they’ll need him to continue doing the heavy lifting.

 

There are also some trade chips the Twins will showcase at the All-Star Game. Closer Brandon Kintzler was a late addition to the American League roster, and Ervin Santana will have a chance to prove his season’s been no fluke. Regardless of the Twins position in the standings, both players will likely be shopped, especially Kintzler given his expiring contract.

 

Everything about the Twins screams regression, but they just don’t quit. They came back from a 6-0 deficit against Baltimore on Friday and won 9-6. The defense has improved dramatically, but there’s glaring needs in the starting rotation and bullpen. So much so that the Twins signed 44-year-old Bartolo Colon to a minor league deal, Friday.

Tampa Bay Rays

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Corey Dickerson is making his first appearance in the All-Star Game and will be the starting designated hitter for the American League. Dickerson will likely get the first plate appearance of his career against Max Scherzer, but I doubt he’ll be in the game once Zach Greinke is on the mound. He’s 3-for-20 against him with a .442 OPS.

 

Tampa’s starting rotation is going to keep the Rays competitive even Chris Archer is the only All-Star amongst them, and he was a replacement. As long as the Rays and Dickerson keep hitting like they are (the entire team has an average OPS+ of 110), Chris Archer, Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi will keep them in games. And now Jacob Faria has burst onto the scene, going 4-0 with an ERA+ of 199 over six starts. They could win the AL East if they can find someone to replace Blake Snell (0-5 in 10 starts spanning 52 innings and a 5.14 FIP).

 

Enter Brett Honeywell, who has struggled with the AAA Durham Bulls (1.437 WHIP), but won Futures Game MVP honors. He throws a nasty screwball and should contribute to Tampa this season.

Chicago Cubs

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Wade Davis is the only Chicago Cub on the NL All-Star team. The defending champions have been a mess so far this season, and I think Cub fans probably have the fewest reasons to watch any of the All-Star events. Here’s two, though: hope that either Michael Brantley or Avisail Garcia bats against Davis. Brantley is 5-for-17 with a homer and two doubles, and Garcia is 3-for-8 against Davis.

Seattle Mariners

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Seattle is in desperate need of some young, resilient arms. Their starters just can’t stay on the field, and they moved Taijuan Walker for Jean Segura. The Mariners could have used Walker’s 76.1 innings and 3.30 ERA, but, I mean, it’s Jean Segura.

 

Jean Segura is so good he signed an extension while on the DL, because he’s fantastic (136 OPS+). He will officially lead Major League Baseball in hitting after his next plate appearance and didn’t make the All-Star team. He led the league in hits last year and didn’t make the All-Star team. He hasn’t been to the All-Star Game since 2013, and when the AL needs a replacement for Starlin Castro, who goes? Robinson Cano, whose OPS+ is 16 points lower than Segura’s. Come on!

 

Cano might play second base everyday, but Segura can play second base, too. In 142 games at second with Arizona last year, Segura was better than he was at short, which makes sense. Second base is easier. In fact, he was exactly as good at second base in 2016 as Cano has been this year (5 runs above average). Segura got robbed again, but at least he got paid.

 

Mariners fans will have to settle for watching Cano and Nelson Cruz take whacks, but they are more likely to go yard than Segura, so they’ve got that going for them.

Los Angeles Angels

What to watch: Uhm...Home Run Derby

Reason to watch: Angels fans also have little reason to watch the All-Star Game with their only All-Star, Mike Trout, not playing. They also don’t have anyone in the derby, but 500-foot home runs should be enough reason to watch.

Texas Rangers

What to watch: Uhm...Home Run Derby

Reason to watch: With Yu Darvish pitching Sunday and being ineligible to pitch for the AL All-Stars, Rangers fans have very little to watch any of the All-Star events. There were no Rangers’ prospects I can see on the Futures Game roster, and Darvish wasn’t replaced by a Ranger pitcher. So watch the Home Run Derby Rangers fans, because, again, 500-foot home runs.

Toronto Blue Jays

What to watch: Justin Smoak will be put on display in Miami. The 30-year-old is an All-Star for the first time, and he’ll be starting at first base. His OPS+ is 141. His OPS is .939. And he comes with up to two years of control at a rate that’s more than reasonable. If Toronto is wowed, they could sell very high at the deadline.

 

Most interesting is if Max Scherzer gets the start for the NL. Smoak is just 1-for-13 against him in his career.

The Sellers

Atlanta Braves

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Ender Inciarte is pretty darn good defensively, and he can hit. But can he hit Andrew Miller or Dellin Betances? Braves fans will find out if they tune into the All-Star Game.

St. Louis Cardinals

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Carlos Martinez has been the Cardinals’ best player. It would take an entire roster to get him out of St. Louis. It will be interesting if Martinez sees Oakland’s Yonder Alonso at the plate during the All-Star Game. He’s surrendered four hits in nine of Alonso’s at-bats against him, including a double.

Baltimore Orioles

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Jonathon Schoop is an All-Star for the first time at just 25-years-old. He’s mashing (.885 OPS), and he’s arbitration eligible. I’d imagine the Dodgers would be interested in adding a second baseman like Schoop, but might not pay dearly for it. Either way, Orioles fans should tune in for some of the toughest at-bats of Schoop’s career.

Pittsburgh Pirates

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Josh Harrison returns to the All-Star Game after a two-season hiatus. I don’t know that Pittsburgh would shop Harrison given the three potential years of control they have, but the contract gets $2.5 million dollars more expensive next year and stays $3 million more expensive if the Pirates pick up the options. Regardless, MLB GMs will get a look at Harrison against premiere pitching. He hasn’t seen Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances or Craig Kimbrel.

New York Mets

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Michael Conforto is an All-Star for the first time at 24 and despite being on the 10-day DL, he hopes to play. His season thus far has been insane, as he’s managed an OPS+ of 150. The Mets will likely hold onto the young outfielder since he won’t be a free agent until 2022, but Mets fans would love to see him against the AL’s best pitchers. He’s only seen Chris Archer (0-for-3 with 2 Ks) Luis Severino (0-for-2, K) and Ervin Santana (0-for-1, K).

Miami Marlins

What to watch: Home Run Derby

Reason to watch: Giancarlo Stanton defends his Home Run Derby title in front of his Miami faithful. Again, baseballs going 500-feet at more than 100 miles per hour -- need I say more?

Detroit Tigers

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: I can’t imagine anyone is interested in picking up the nearly $100 million Justin Upton’s owed over the next 4.5 years, but it might be cool to watch him swing against guys who throw hard. He’s had success against the top reliever on the trade market, San Diego’s Brad Hand. Upton is 2-for-7 with a dinger and three walks against him.

Oakland Athletics

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Yonder Alonso, 30, is a free agent at the end of the year, and I doubt Billy Beane is interested in paying him coming off an All-Star season, because he’d rather make big Trade Deadline deals.

 

Alonso can make it easier on Bean if he gets a hit against one of the NL All-Stars. He’s already 2-for-3 off Robbie Ray, but is 1-for-14 against Zack Greinke.

Chicago White Sox

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Is Avisail Garcia for real (.502 SLG)? White Sox fans will get a pretty good indication either way on Monday. He likely won’t see Max Scherzer, who he’s hit hard in big spots (3 H, 2 XBH, 4 RBI in 11 ABs), but he could be due for his first hit against Greinke (0-for-3) or improve on his 2-for-8 against Greg Holland. If he sees Wade Davis, White Sox fans might rejoice (3-for-8) but won’t learn anything about their 26-year-old All-Star.

Cincinnati Reds

What to watch: Zack Cozart is a prime trade candidate. His OPS this season is 241 points higher than his career OPS. He’s 31 and a free agent at the end of the season. He will almost certainly have a new team in August and could do a lot to help his prospects in joining a contender by getting a hit in the All-Star Game. He’s handled Lance McCuller’s, Jr. (2-for-4, 2B) but struggled with Ervin Santana (1-for-6, 3 Ks) and Craig Kimbrel (0-for-5, 2 Ks).

San Diego Padres

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Brad Hand is going to draw a crowd. He’s probably the best reliever available and comes with two years of team control after this season. If you think pitching in Petco Park has helped him, that’s not the case. Hand has nearly doubled his K/9 since 2015 -- from 6.5 to 11.5.

 

He’s allowed a double to Alonso in four at-bats, and Mike Moustakas doubled the only time he saw Hand. Justin Upton also has two hits, including a homer, in seven at-bats against Hand, so he’s got an opportunity to prove he’s truly turned a corner at the All-Star Game.

San Francisco Giants

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Buster Posey will set the franchise record for All-Star Game starts at catcher with four. He’s quietly having one of his best seasons (142 OPS+ is third best of his career, and a point short of second best). But he’s on a really bad team.

 

I don’t know if San Franciscans would forgive the Giants brass for trading Posey, but if there was a time to do it, that time is now. There’s always a team looking to improve at catcher at the Trade Deadline. Think how Jonathan Lucroy was valued last season, but Texas seemed to have gotten burned on that one.

 

Given Posey’s premiere play at a premiere position, he’s absolutely worth the $21.4 million he’s paid -- right now. Is there a GM out there willing to take on at least four more years of that? I think Cleveland should sell the farm to improve upon the 79 OPS+ they’re getting from Yan Gomes. We will see.

Philadelphia Phillies

What to watch: All-Star Game

Reason to watch: Reliever Pat Neshek is a prime trade target with a chance to prove he can still get tough outs in big games at nearly 37 years old. It would be nice for Phillies fans to see him get Yonder Alonso out. He’s 2-for-2 against Neshek with a home run. Otherwise he’s been terrific against the AL All-Stars he’s seen, including a 1-for-8 career clip against Nelson Cruz with four strikeouts to boot.

 

So there’s every fan’s reason to watch the Home Run Derby or All-Star Game. The All-Star Game starts Tuesday at 7:30 p.m. on Fox.

--

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I’ve mentioned Brad Hand as a trade target for the Minnesota Twins in two previous blogs, and now that we know the Twins’ surprising performance has Thad Levine targeting trades for long-term assets prior to the July 31 trade deadline, it seems Brad Hand is the Twins’ perfect trade target. Here are the reasons:


 

This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community of foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing uncensored, commercial-free play-by-play and color commentary during select games.


The Twins need relievers

Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers have worked out nicely in high-leverage situations, and the Twins have struck gold with closer Brandon Kintzler. But Kintzler’s a free agent at the end of the season, and is likely trade bait. Glen Perkins has a team option for 2018 that won’t be picked up, and while the Twins expect to get Trevor May back next year, they have no idea what to expect from him after Tommy John surgery (his recovery from which he’s documenting at MLBTradeRumors.com).

Hand has the stuff to close, and the Twins could trade Kintzler and transition to Hand without damaging their chances to contend this season. Depending on who they give up, they could actually improve their chances. Plus, Perkins won’t have to pitch in high-leverage situations upon his return.

Hand’s controllable

Hand won’t be a free agent until 2020, and while he’ll make more in arbitration next year than the $1.375 million he’s making this year, he’s still a steal given his .984 WHIP this season.

Hand’s really good

Hand not only limits runners on the bases, but he misses a lot of bats. His K/9 (10.8) is down slightly from last year (11.2), but his K:BB ratio is better this year (4.25) than last (3.08).

Hand’s affordable

Glen Perkins will make $6.5 million this year. Hand will be lucky to make half that next season. The Twins' budget of $108 million is one of the highest in Minnesota's history, too.

Hand won’t cost the Twins a ton of prospects, either. While he’s one of the top relievers on the trading block, he’s not a closer and won’t command a return like Aroldis Chapman or Andrew Miller did. The trade market is also deep with relievers, so the Twins could probably part with a pair of prospects that are a few years away from contributing at the major league level.

Hand’s local

Hand attended Chaska High School in Chaska, Minnesota. While the local talent angle was taken by Levine’s predecessor, Terry Ryan (Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, Caleb Thielbar, Cole DeVries, Pat Neshek, Michael Restovich, Terry Steinbach and Paul Molitor all graduated from Minnesota high schools), Andy MacPhail seemed to make it work (Kent Hrbeck, Jack Morris and Dave Winfield). Plus, fans love cheering for locals.

The Twins have what the Padres need

We all know the Padres have a giant hole at shortstop, but the Twins shouldn’t move Nick Gordon to get Hand. They don’t have to, either, as the Padres are fielding two outfielders 22 or under -- Manuel Margot and Allen Cordoba. I don’t know if that means the Padres would be interested in Eddie Rosario or Eduardo Escobar, but if they are, that might be a deal the Twins could make with Zach Granite knocking down the door to the majors with his bat.

The Padres need help at the lower levels of the minors, too. Shortstop Javier Guerra (22) has struggled at high-A this season and last, as has outfielder Taylor Kohlwey (22) this year. And Peter Van Gansen (23) might not make it out of high-A, so there are some holes in San Diego’s lower affiliates that could be filled by Twins talent like Jermaine Palacios or Max Murphy. My guess is the Padres feel they’re probably three or more years away from contending, so a couple of 20-year-old prospects with high upside might be a perfect fit.

Twins fans might not like the idea of letting go of a young player with promise, but that’s what you have to give up to get someone who’s good right now and will be good for quite some time.

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%PM, %25 %874 %2017 %19:%Jun

Nothing can stop the Twins on the road

The Minnesota Twins started a catcher in left field on Saturday in Cleveland and walked out of the ballpark with a win and a chance to sweep the Indians. That catcher, Chris Gimenez, would later move to first base defensively and hit a mammoth home run in the ninth inning to pad the Twins' one-run lead by one more.


 

This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community for foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing commercial-free, uncensored play-by-play and color commentary during select games.


 

On Saturday, Twins’ manager Paul Molitor had to scratch right fielder Max Kepler after fouling a ball off his right foot on Friday, and left fielder Eddie Rosario due to illness. And since Eduardo Escobar had to play third base for Miguel Sano (illness) for a second straight day, he couldn’t play left field for Rosario. Enter Gimenez, the Twins’ backup catcher, mop-up reliever and, now, fifth outfielder.

Despite liabilities in both corners of the outfield, Gibson walking four over four and two-thirds innings, and Kennys Vargas repeatedly getting in Brian Dozier’s way defensively, the Twins found a way -- like they have all season. Matt Belisle almost blew it for the Twins but battled after falling off the first base bag and missing a double-play throw that allowed the tying run to score. Dozier didn’t miss a big mistake on a fastball up and in and broke the 2-2 tie in the eighth inning, and Rosario came on to play left, moving Giminez to first so the Twins wouldn’t lose their backup catcher for the rest of the game.

Brandon Kintzler, a closer averaging six strikeouts per nine innings, gave up a two-out double to Francisco Lindor before locking up the save. He’s tied for the league lead in saves at 20. The Twins bullpen, the worst in baseball, picked up Kyle Gibson, who failed to complete six innings for the tenth time in 13 starts. He also failed to complete five innings for the fourth time in his last 13 starts. Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey carried the bulk of the load again, and the Twins got their most unlikely and impressive win of the season to pull within a half game of Cleveland in the American League Central Division.

Then the Twins went to work on Sunday, taking an early 2-0 lead thanks to a two-run double by catcher Jason Castro. And with Ervin Santana finding his command and pounding the strike zone, the Twins completed the sweep of Cleveland and moved into first place in the AL Central with two weeks until the All-star Break. It was the vintage Santana the Twins will need to remain competitive this season. He was getting swings and misses on sliders buried in the dirt and painting the corners with 95-mile-per-hour heat while walking no one and striking out seven over six innings.

Twins fans keep awaiting the regression, and you feel it’s got to show itself over this stretch where the Twins face quality starter after quality starter everyday for over a week, all on the road. Luckily, the Twins can’t seem to lose on the road, winning over 70 percent of their road games. That’s better than everyone but the MLB-best Houston Astros.

The Twins play 21 games in 20 days entering the All-star Break, with four of those games coming against the surging Kansas City Royals. They have 15 of those games to go, so if the Twins can hang around the .500 mark entering the All-star Break, they’d not only be in contention, but potential buyers at the Trade Deadline.

Instead of searching for pitching prospects for the near future, Falvey might be forced to consider pitching rentals for this season. Maybe free-agent-to-be Jake Arrieta could be had for Eduardo Escobar now that Kyle Schwarber’s been demoted. San Diego’s Clayton Richard is also a free agent after the season, and with the Padres’ glaring needs in left field and at shortstop, Falvey could target Brad Hand as a relief pitcher to include with Richard. Hand won’t be easy to acquire, though, given his stellar K:BB ratio (4.25) and the fact he won’t be a free agent until 2020. I’d say only Nick Gordon and maybe Zach Granite are off the table if your Falvey, but it might take one of them to get Hand if Escobar, Polanco, Grossman or Rosario aren’t desired.

The Twins just got bullpen reinforcements in Dillon Gee and sidearmer Trevor Hildenberger, so they’ll get a sense of whether baseball’s worst bullpen is trending up entering the All-star Break. Phil Hughes could even join the bullpen sometime soon, and while we don’t know what to expect of Hughes, just having another guy out there who can throw more than one inning would be a blessing for a starting rotation that rarely pitches six innings. Hughes has tossed two scoreless innings with AAA Rochester, allowing one hit and two walks while striking out one. Glen Perkins is still a long way from contributing to the Twins, but would be a welcomed addition come mid-July or early August.

One thing is clear -- the Twins’ rebuild is way ahead of schedule.

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In a prior post I called Jose Berrios the ace of the Minnesota Twins pitching staff. Not because I think six starts proves anything, and not because I don't believe in Ervin Santana. I do. Santana gets by on pitching prowess like Greg Maddux. But Berrios can flat out miss bats, regardless of who's swinging them, and that's what makes an ace. We'll get a good indication of Berrios's development on Thursday at noon against a hot Mariners lineup that roughed up Ervin Santana, Wednesday.


 

This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community for foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing commercial-free play-by-play during select games.


 

Berrios is in a position to lift his team with a strong start. It's kind of a big spot, especially with the disarray that is the Twins pitching staff. The only thing we can honestly expect from the three other starters in the Twins rotation is that they will leave plenty of innings for baseball's worst bullpen. Even if Hector Santiago comes back and is serviceable, there's still at least three innings left in every game he starts! At least! The same goes for Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia (or anyone else). And while the Twins bullpen is terrible, all bullpens are less terrible the fewer innings they pitch.

Berrios pitched into at least the seventh inning in each of his first three starts this season. He hasn't done so since. While he allowed just four runs against the game's best Houston Astros (and that is an accomplishment), it took 105 pitches to get through five innings. He only went five and a third innings against San Francisco, the worst offense in baseball. And while he struck out eight, I think Paul Molitor would have preferred he pitch seven innings.

I know, I'm starting to sound like Terry Ryan. But Berrios must find that happy place between missing bats and kissing bats. "Strikeouts are boring. Besides, they're fascist. Throw some groundballs." Sure, it's from a movie, but it's 100 percent correct. When you have the game's best defense, you can kiss bats rather than miss them and get easy outs, especially if you work ahead in counts.

Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs raves that the Twins finally have a strikeout starter for the first time in nine years, but being a member of a team requires sacrifice. When the bulk of your bullpen arms can't miss bats nor prevent runs, the starter must do everything he can to extend his starts.

Santana has not been great his last six starts. He's allowed 18 earned runs during that span. But you know what he has done over those six starts? He's pitched 41 innings -- three more than Berrios over the same number of starts. If that trend continues, Santana will have pitched an entire game's worth of innings more than Berrios over 18 starts.

You know what else Santana does that Berrios must? He doesn't leave runners on base for the bullpen to clean up. In 14 starts, the Twins bullpen hasn't inherited one runner in a game Santana has started this season. That's huge for a bullpen that allows 29 percent of inherited runners to score.

Over Berrios's six starts, he's left three of them with runners on base, and the bullpen's inherited four runners total. That trend can't continue. The solution is to get outs with fewer pitches earlier in games to leave something in the tank for later.

When your pitches naturally move as much as Berrios's do, it's understandable that some days you just can't find the strike zone. That's when a hard fastball comes in handy. In the past, Berrios would appear visibly frustrated when he couldn't command his pitches, but this season he's acting more like Santana -- cool, calm, collected. He's getting out of jams by believing in his fastball and locating it for quality strikes. He's just not doing it late in games because it's hard to trust anything you throw when your "arm feels like Jell-O."

So while Santana struggled Wednesday, there's still plenty to be learned from his outing if you're Berrios. First, when you don't have command of your pitches early, trust your fastball. Santana got strikeouts of Nelson Cruz and Danny Valencia to get out of the first inning on Wednesday by elevating his fastball and enticing swings. Next, don't let an early mistake control your approach. There's a lot of game left and your team needs every inning you can give them. Finally, never leave a game with men on base. Santana didn't have a single 1-2-3 inning on Wednesday, but the closest he got was in his final inning. If Berrios can take these few pages from the Smell Baseball book of pitching, he will have earned the title of ace.

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For a lot of people (just under 95 percent, according to an MLB Trade Rumors poll), the Minnesota Twins' selection of California shortstop Royce Lewis with the first pick in the 2017 MLB Draft was a surprise. It shouldn't have been. Most knew there was no consensus number one pick in this draft. There were five potential number ones. The Twins took one of the five.


This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community for foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing uncensored, commercial-free play-by-play.


Lewis can play anywhere and received the highest possible grade for his speed. Unsurprisingly, the Twins might have found another impact center fielder. Lewis already has a swing that stays in the zone a long time and allows him to barrel up a lot of balls. He struck out just seven times in 116 plate appearances this season. The mental makeup is everything you want in a player -- natural, born leader. He is still years away from the majors, so Byron Buxton fans need not worry.

Many Twins fans bemoaned the pick, hoping for high school shortstop/pitcher Hunter Greene or college first baseman/pitcher Brendan McKay. Those fans shouldn't be disappointed.

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The Twins likely saved nearly $1 million by taking Lewis number one overall, which allowed new chief of baseball operations Derek Falvey to allocate more money to later picks. Since the Twins also selected at 35 and 37 overall, Falvey could use that money to sign more expensive or harder-to-sign draft picks that fell out of the first round.

Falvey was rewarded with the best college hitter of the year. Mississippi State outfielder Brent Rooker (great baseball name) had a 1.371 OPS in 2017. He's set to become only the second player ever (Rafael Palmeiro) to win the SEC Triple Crown, batting .387/.495/.810. Some were surprised Rooker got past Oakland with the sixth pick.

Then, Falvey scored Canadian high school right-handed pitcher Landon Leach. Leach is committed to Texas but could be persuaded to sign with Minnesota given the money the Twins have to offer. The approximate pick value is $1.8 million.

You could say the Twins should have gone with pitching at number one overall, but that would have severely limited Falvey when offering Rooker and Leach contracts. And there's a lot of draft to go.

The Twins next picks are 76 and 106. They will pick first in each of the next 36 rounds of the 2017 MLB Draft. I fully expect Falvey to target high school pitching he can develop, since that's sort of his thing. But I wouldn't be surprised if he takes Oregon State starter Jake Thompson if he's there at 76.

Other pitchers ranked around that 76th pick for the Twins are right-handed pitcher Kyle Hurt (another great baseball name), and lefty Daniel Tillo, who the Twins drafted in 2015. Jackson Rutledge is interesting at 106. He's six-foot-eight and throws 94 mph with an expectation for more.

While I can understand Twins fans' frustrations given the downfall of their pitching staff, there's no solution to that problem in the draft. Even Brendan McKay would likely be a year away from the majors, and perhaps more if given the time to adjust at the plate as well as on the mound. Hunter Greene has even more development time ahead of him. Evaluating a draft that can't be evaluated for at least three years is completely pointless. Reacting as if the Twins organization was "cheap" is incorrect. The Twins were "frugal," and it's already paying off.

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The Major League Baseball (MLB) Draft starts at 7 p.m. EST, with pre-draft coverage starting at 6 p.m. EST on MLB Network and MLB.com. Here are five things you need to know about the 2017 MLB Draft.


 

This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community for foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing uncensored, commercial-free play-by-play.


There’s No Consensus #1

While MLB.com analysts all agree on the first five picks of the draft, any one of those five players could go number one overall.

Two, Two-way Players Atop Draft

Two of the top five projected players could start their professional baseball careers pitching and hitting. High school right-hander Hunter Greene is an easy choice at number one because while he’s at the top of the draft because of his 102-mph fastball, he’s easily a middle first-round talent as a shortstop as well.

The same goes for college left-hander Brendan McKay out of Louisville. McKay has legitimate power as a first baseman to go along with his collegiate, pitching prowess. He hit 17 homers this season for Louisville to go along with his 2.34 ERA on the mound. The fact he has collegiate experience might push him to the top of the draft.

Whoever drafts Greene or McKay will likely have them pitch once every five days and play the field on days between starts in order to evaluate their hitting and fielding ability.

Minnesota Twins Pick First

For the first time since Joe Mauer was selected number one overall back in 2001, the Minnesota Twins will open the 2017 MLB Draft with the first overall pick. MLB.com has the Twins and new chief of baseball operations Derek Falvey taking McKay number one overall. With the Twins bullpen the worst in baseball in ERA, FIP, average against, line-drive rate, strikeout rate, fastball velocity and swinging strikes, it makes sense that they would lean towards a college pitcher they can start at AA rather than a high school pitcher who will start in rookie ball.

Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright was considered the Twins favorite by analysts until his latest start on ESPN against offensive powerhouse Oregon State, during which he allowed seven earned runs over six and two-thirds innings while tossing 120 pitches. There’s no telling what that outing has done to the Twins interest in him until the draft kicks off tonight, but it’s likely the Twins front office had already made its decision prior to the start. Analysts seem to think McKay is the Twins’ pick.

Hunter Greene Won’t Fall Past the Reds

If the Twins pass on Greene, he likely won’t get past the Cincinnati Reds, who pick second overall.

Most Valuable Player Won’t be Drafted on First Day

This might sound like a bold prediction, but it’s really just taking the field over the first round. The 2017 MLB Draft’s first round will be held Monday night, including 27 regular, first-round picks and three compensatory picks. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Cubs each added first-round picks when free agents Edwin Encarnacion, Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler signed with the Indians, Rockies and Cardinals, respectively. Rounds two through 40 will be held Tuesday and Wednesday, with coverage on MLB.com. So there’s 1,170 players who will be drafted after the draft’s first day.

Albert Pujols, who became the ninth member of the 600 home run club last week, was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 13th round out of a Kansas City community college. Twenty-four teams passed on Mike Trout. And Mike Piazza went 1,390th overall in the 62nd round back in 1988.

Basically, the best MLB players aren’t always drafted in the first round. The Twins took Adam Johnson back in 2000 with the second overall pick and he has a career ERA of 10.25 in just over 26 innings pitched. He washed out after the 2006 season. So keep an eye on the later rounds, because that’s where you find the diamonds in the rough.

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Last week I urged the Minnesota Twins front office to acquire pitching -- any pitching -- and not to wait too long in doing so. Well, here are five pitchers the Twins could target if they want to remain competitive this season, but most of them will cost something you might not like to lose.


 

This was first published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community for foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters who provide live, uncensored, commercial-free play-by-play and color commentary during sporting events.


 

Pat Neshek

Neshek is familiar to Twins fans, and his side-armed delivery should play well out of a Twins bullpen that can't miss bats. He misses plenty (8.4 K/p) despite going on 37. He's a free agent at year's end and playing on a bad team in rebuilding mode. I can't imagine Philadelphia would have interest in bringing back Neshek, so the Twins should bring him home. It's only money after all (over $6 million per year, so $4 million as of this writing). But with the year Neshek's having (.797 WHIP), the Phillies could ask for a lot. So what do they need? Well, starting pitching, which the Twins can't afford to lose.

The Phillies seem set on letting 22-year-old, third baseman Maikel Franco work through his struggles (68 OPS+). But the Phillies also have a 30-year-old, light-hitting, bad defensive right fielder who will be a free agent at the end of the year. Michael Saunders (73 OPS+) is not the future. Of Philly's minor league outfielders, center fielder Cameron Perkins (26) is closest, and he's more likely to take light-hitting, center fielder Odubel Herrera's place (82 OPS+). Nick Williams fits the bill as a power-hitting right fielder (11 HRs and 10 2Bs for a .515 slugging percentage). He's even got okay range and has logged quite a few innings in right field.

Anyways, it's going to be hard to find something to pluck from Rochester unless you're talking about Daniel Palka, and I doubt that'd be enough. So now we're looking at something more complicated than a one-for-one deal, which isn't really a problem.

David Phelps

Phelps is another one who will cost the Twins plenty because Miami won't want to give up his final arbitration year for anything less than young, starting pitching. I got nothing.

Drew Storen

Storen is quietly having a pretty good year (196 ERA+) but a regression is on the horizon given the massive difference between his ERA (2.25) and FIP (3.80). He can still miss bats, though (7.5 K/9). But the Reds need the same thing as everyone else: starting pitching.

Brad Hand

San Diego is a most interesting trade partner because they have glaring need at shortstop, and the Twins have a really good, young one in Nick Gordon. He's untouchable, however.

Sam Dyson

It sure seems like the Twins are the perfect landing spot for Texas Ranger relief pitcher Sam Dyson. The Twins are in the mix and the Rangers are nearing a deal, according to Darren Wolfson. GM Thad Levine came over from Texas, and Dyson could probably use a change of scenery (10.80 ERA, 9.05 FIP). He's given up more homers this season (6) than last (5) for a HR/9 of 3.2, but maybe the depths of Target Field, where nothing but rain drops, will help Dyson get back on track.

It's pretty sad that the best the Twins front office might be able to do to fix a broken bullpen and bending rotation is picking up a guy allowing 16.7 hits per nine innings, but trading for any kind of pitching is expensive. I can't imagine any team with a competent reliever giving him up for anything else than high-upside, starting pitchers (think Kevin Jepsen for Chih-Wei Hu).

Hey, the Twins should get Glen Perkins back in mid-June, though. And Joe Nathan is available. He only allowed 10.7 hits per nine innings in AAA before being released by the Nationals. He was striking out 8.4 batters per nine, though. I guess I'm saying the options suck, and the Twins are stuck. Hey, at least they claimed Chris Heston, right (12.66 FIP, 23 ERA+, 5.4 HR/9, 25.2 H/9, 5.4 K/9 this year and last)?

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It’s no secret that attending a Major League Baseball game is expensive despite being the cheapest option ($31) when compared to the NBA ($55.88), NHL ($62.18) and NFL ($92.98). I’ve been to 16 of the first 24 Minnesota Twins home games, but just experienced my first pair of doubleheaders over the last four days -- one a split doubleheader and one a traditional back-to-back. I doubt I’ll see many more split doubleheaders, as taking a break between games tends to leave seats empty during the second game.

Getting into the ballpark isn’t prohibitively expensive. You can get into Angels Stadium in Anaheim for less than $10, and standing room only tickets at Target Field in Minnesota are usually $11. But eating and drinking beer, liquor, soda or water at the the ballpark is expensive.

The Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies have the most expensive beer in baseball, followed by Minnesota in second, according to Fortune. That doesn’t include tip. My research revealed that you can buy 16 ounces of Bud Light, Miller Lite or a Bud Lime-A-Rita for $7 at Target Field. You can expect to pay close to $5 for a water and more for soda.

Doubleheaders don’t have to be doubly expensive, though. I enjoyed two games, a meal and three drinks for less than $35. Here’s how you can save money at the ballpark.

Don’t Exchange Your Ticket for a Different Game

When your game gets rained out, don’t exchange your ticket for a different game. Generally, if you have tickets to the makeup game, you’ll get free admittance to the second game of the traditional doubleheader. That’s not the case for split doubleheaders, though. Do your best to make it to the makeup game because they tend to be attended by fewer people, making for a more intimate game, shorter lines for the concession stands and bathrooms, and you’re more likely to get a foul ball, an autograph, or a chance to meet Tony Oliva, which happened to me Thursday.

You’re also more likely to win something if you attend the second game of a doubleheader. Professional sports organizations give away free stuff every game. At Minnesota Twins games, the big winners are those who get scratch-off tickets from the Minnesota Lottery. But there’s plenty of other door prizes to be had. I won a large, two-topping pizza from Papa John’s on Thursday.

The organization will say you can exchange your ticket for a ticket of equal value for another game, but equal value is what they declare, and face value of tickets changes depending on demand. So, if you have a ticket to see the last-place Royals play the Twins and exchange it for a game against the Yankees or Red Sox, don’t expect to get the same seats or even the same section. You are at the discretion of the corporation at that point, and you never want to be in that position.

Check the Promotions Schedule

If you are going to exchange your ticket for another game, check the promotions schedule first. You can get something free like a shirt, hat or bag just for showing up early, or take advantage of discounts on food. You can get a hot dog for a dollar at Target Field every Wednesday. Here’s every team’s promotions schedule ranked for 2017.

Pack a Bag

Although you’ll spend a few more minutes in the security line on your way into the ballpark, the wait is negligible when considering the value of having a bag with you at the ballpark, especially during a doubleheader. I take my laptop to the game in case I want to work (like I am now), a microphone in case I want to do a live broadcast (I do live, uncensored play-by-play of select games), a solar charger for my phone and computer and my preferred scorecard and pens to keep score.

I recommend taking a backpack to the ballpark as opposed to a satchel or purse. Your lower back will thank me if you do a lot of walking to or around the ballpark, as side-swinging bags tend to cause more back and hip pain. Backpacks also have plenty of hidden pockets, and security guards aren’t going to take the time to investigate every interior pocket, which brings me to my next point.

Don’t Drink the Beer

Beer is the biggest ripoff at the ballpark. While you’re getting 20 ounces of beer for around $8 at Target Field, you can get a hefty shot of liquor for $9 that will pack a bigger punch. My biggest suggestion is to not drink beer at the ballpark, and you can avoid doing so by packing your own booze.

While outside liquor is not allowed at any ballpark, I say you risk it. The worst that could happen is security discovers your stash and throws it out, but it’s highly unlikely if you use a backpack. You can use those interior pockets of your backpack to sneak in a flask of liquor. You generally won’t have to worry about your bag being scanned for metal, so your flask doesn’t have to be plastic unless you’re keeping it on your person. I forgot to finish all the water in my water bottle before entering Target Field on Sunday, and the security guard didn’t even take notice. That could have been filled with vodka, as it was visible on the outside of my pack. If you’re using interior pockets, though, you can bring in anything you want, including a pre-mixed cocktail. Just don’t drink too much or give your fellow fans a reason to have you removed.

Pack a Lunch and a Water Bottle

You can bring your own food to the ballpark, so you never have to spend money on peanuts, sunflower seeds or hot dogs (unless it’s $1 dog day at Target Field). I usually pack a snack for every game, but for doubleheaders, I pack a cold lunch like a protein-rich sandwich.

You’ll burn a lot of calories and give your legs a workout just walking to and from the ballpark and your seat, and you’ll most likely sweat, so having a water bottle will allow you to take advantage of the free tap water at the ballpark instead of paying nearly $5 for bottled water.

If you fail to pack a lunch and/or liquor, I suggest getting both in one drink. Most ballpark bars will make you a Bloody Mary with a few fixings like olives, celery, a pickle and, perhaps, beef sticks and cheese. The Twins offer a Bloody Mary with either a cheeseburger slider or slice of pizza at Hrbeck’s Bar for $24, and it will fill you up thanks to an eight-ounce, Bud Light beer back.

If you don’t drink Bloody Marys, order liquor on the rocks. It’s the best deal you’ll get at the ballpark, especially if you order doubles. Bartenders tend to pour heavy drinks (about three full shots) when you order doubles, which run around $15 for bottom shelf liquor before tip. The more games you attend the better you’ll get to know the bartenders, and them you, so despite the expensive price I recommend you tip your bartenders. They’ll remember it, even if you don’t tip 20 percent. I do a dollar per shot as a base and go up from there.

If you intend to eat at the ballpark, try these recommended dishes so you know you’re at least getting something unique or well-received for the insane amount of money you’ll spend.

Don’t Pay for Parking

The easiest way to avoid overpaying to see a baseball game or doubleheader is to not pay for parking. The closest parking garage near Target Field costs up to $25 for event parking and the most expensive parking in baseball is in Boston and New York for $35.

If you don’t live near public transit or need your car after the game, use apps like Park Whiz or Best Parking to score cheap deals on parking. I can park half a mile from Target Field for $6 during every night game, and a few blocks further away I can score parking for $4. I’ve parked for free at public parks and walked 25 minutes each way as well. If I pack my bike in the trunk of my car, I can cut my time to the ballpark down to 10 minutes or less and lock it up at one of the many bike racks available right outside the ballpark.

Taking public transit is my favorite way to get to and from the ballpark, though. For $3.50 I can get dropped off right at the ballpark and returned a block away from my apartment. I can read or work on the way to or from the game instead of driving, so I can actually make money during my commute. It’s also safer than driving, and if I want, I can take in a few drinks at a nearby bar before boarding.

My entire day for two games at Target Field on Sunday cost me a total of $29. Since I purchased the Spring Ballpark Pass for every home game except Opening Day for $99 in advance, my average price per ticket was $6.60 and will continue to fall for each game I intend through May (six more games brings it down to $4.71 each). If you buy tickets to the rainout, you got a free ticket to the second game of the doubleheader, so that’s $11 for both games at Target Field. Add a double (really a triple) bourbon on the rocks for $17 including tip, and I’m right around $30 and you’re under $30. My transportation puts my total at less than $35, and if you don’t pay for parking or are willing to do some walking, and now you can save money at the ballpark, too.

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