Items filtered by date: Friday, 25 August 2017

At some point Congressional Democrats have to start wondering if things could have turned out any better for them had they won the 2016 Presidential Election. I’ve already said once that it couldn’t be worse for Republicans, and except for the hundreds of judges Donald Trump is appointing all over the country, things are really going Democrats’ way. Congressional Democrats will reap the benefits of Trump’s record low approval rating and compulsive terrorizing of his own party members come the 2018 midterm elections.

When Trump said he would “drain the swamp,” I didn’t think he was talking about members of his own party. If that was his goal, it’s the only thing he’s done really well. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s approval rating in Kentucky is 18 percent. He won’t be back, but a Democrat won’t take his seat either. That’s okay as long as Democrats preserve their seats most likely to switch parties (there are eight) and pick up at least three seats. The seats most likely to be within reach are in Nevada, Arizona or Texas.

The Democrats are going to gain seats in the House. Congressional minorities pick up seats when their opposition occupies the White House. 270ToWin has 14 seats as tossups, and every tossup Democrats win after the first will be a House seat gained.

While Democrats winning the 24 seats to take a House majority is a longshot, FiveThirtyEight says House Democrats have a “historically strong position.” Despite Republicans holding the incumbency advantage by holding more House seats, FiveThirtyEight pits Democrats’ chance at taking back the House majority at 50/50.

The prediction is based on the House generic ballot, where voters are asked for which party they’d vote in a House election. Democrats lead that generic ballot by seven percentage points. In 2008, when they led the generic ballot by nine points, Democrats picked up 23 House seats. When they led by 11.5 points in 2006, Democrats picked up 30 House seats.

So House Democrats have to hope Trump’s approval rating keeps decreasing, which would result in an increased margin on the generic ballot and more Democratic Representatives elected in 2018. And it’s not crazy to think Trump’s approval rating could reach the record low of 22 percent set by Harry Truman before the 2018 midterm elections.

Only George W. Bush managed to raise his net approval rating going into his first midterm election, and it took 9/11 for that to happen. The other eight newly elected Presidents of the Presidential approval rating era lost at least 17 points before their first midterm elections. So barring a terrorist attack unifying the country behind a war, Trump’s approval rating will likely continue it’s downward trend.

Trump has been shedding .038 percentage points per day since starting his Presidency with a record low 45 percent approval rating. As of this writing, there are 437 days until the 2018 midterm elections. At Trump’s current rate, his approval rating would be at least 16 points lower than his current 37 percent approval rating, setting a new record low at 21 percent.

Even with his current approval rating, Trump would hold the record low for a net approval rating of nearly -20 percent (37.1 approval rating minus 56.9 disapproval rating). The three Presidents who went into their first midterm elections with disapproval ratings at least as high as their approval ratings ended up losing the most House seats, but none of them even touch the travesty that is Trump’s net approval rating.

Barack Obama’s House Democrats lost 63 seats when his net approval rating was just -2 percent. Bill Clinton’s House Democrats lost 54 seats when Bill Clinton’s net approval rating was zero. Ronald Reagan’s House Republicans lost 27 seats when his net approval rating was -4 percent.

So while there isn’t a direct correlation between negative net approval ratings of the President and the number of House seats lost, negative net approval ratings certainly result in House seats lost. And with 60 to 80 Republican-held House seats that could be competitive in 2018, and 209 Democratic challengers for House seats raising at least $5,000 by June 30 this year compared to the 28 Republicans who did so, Democrats are in position to surprise us like Trump did in 2016. The only thing that might stop them, according to history, is a terrorist attack.

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22,186 cases of swine flu have been reported in India, with the death toll reaching 1094.  This is a four-fold rise in deaths from last year.

 

The hardest hit areas appear to be Maharashtra with 437 deaths followed by Gujarat with 297 casualties.

What is the Swine Flu?

 

Swine Flu is the H1N1 Influenza A virus.  It originated in pigs before infecting humans. Current swine flu is not contracted from swine but passed between humans.

How deadly is Swine Flu?

 

The 2009 Swine Flu pandemic killed over 12,000 people in the US, and 200,000 people worldwide.  Many who die, do so from viral or bacterial pneumonia, although dehydration can also play a role.

Is the current outbreak in India the same virus that caused the 2009 pandemic?

 

No.  In 2009 the predominant strain of H1N1 was the California strain. This was replaced last year with the Michigan strain.

Do we have a vaccine against the Swine Flu?

 

Yes.  In the US, the trivalent and quadrivalent flu vaccines have included H1N1 since 2010.  These vaccines would include the following strains (according to the CDC):

 

  • an A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)–like virus,

  • an A/Hong Kong/ 4801/2014 (H3N2)–like virus, and

  • a B/Brisbane/60/2008–like virus (Victoria lineage)

with an additional B virus called B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus (B/Yamagata lineage) for the quadrivalent vaccine.

 

Currently the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends changing the Northern Hemisphere flu vaccine to:

 

  • For H1N1, an A/Michigan/45/2015-like virus

  • For H3N2, an A/Hong Hong/4801/2014-like virus

  • For B, Brisbane/60/2008-like virus (belonging to the Victoria lineage)

with an additional B virus called B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus (B/Yamagata lineage) for the quadrivalent vaccine.

What are symptoms of the Swine Flu?

Symptoms can include:

 

  • Fever

  • Cough

  • Chills

  • Sore Throat

  • Headache

  • Body Aches

  • Diarrhea

  • Vomiting

 

Who is at risk for Swine Flu?

 

Any child or adult could be at risk for H1N1 infection. However, the 2009 outbreak appeared to predominantly affect younger adults. One theory proposed for why this occurred was older individuals might have been immune having been exposed to the H1N1 during the 1950’s and when it reemerged in the 1970s.  Moreover 40 million Americans were vaccinated against swine flu in the 1970’s.

 

Those, however, at high risk for a severe Swine Flu infection include those who are pregnant, children under 2, asthmatic or other lung conditions, diabetic, immunocompromised (HIV, transplant recipient), sickle-cell, elderly, those in a nursing home, and patients with heart, liver or kidney disease.

How is Swine Flu treated?

 

Many times the H1N1 flu symptoms will last a week and then subside on their own. Some patients will need antivirals such as Tamiflu or Relenza. Any worsening symptoms (persistent fever, vomiting, diarrhea, chest pain, dizziness, confusion, lethargy), should prompt immediate evaluation by one’s medical provider.

How can we avoid Swine Flu?  Do face masks work?

 

swine-story_650_022415095428.jpg

 

 

Prevention of swine flu is best accomplished through vaccination, avoidance of affected individuals and good hand washing. Face masks generally are not recommended, but the CDC provides some guidance with these tables:




            Setting

Persons not at increased risk of severe illness from influenza

(Non-high risk persons)

Persons at increased risk of severe illness from influenza (High-Risk Persons) 3

Community

No 2009 H1N1 in community

Facemask/respirator not recommended

Facemask/respirator not recommended

2009 H1N1 in community: not crowded setting

Facemask/respirator not recommended

Facemask/respirator not recommended

2009 H1N1 in community: crowded setting

Facemask/respirator not recommended

Avoid setting.

If unavoidable, consider facemask or respirator 45

Home

Caregiver to person with influenza-like illness

Facemask/respirator not recommended

Avoid being caregiver. If unavoidable, use facemask or respirator

Other household members in home

Facemask/respirator not recommended

Facemask/respirator not recommended

Occupational (non-health care)

No 2009 H1N1 in community

Facemask/respirator not recommended

Facemask/respirator not recommended

2009 H1N1 in community

Facemask/respirator not recommended but could be considered under certain circumstances

Facemask/respirator not recommended but could be considered under certain circumstances

Occupational (health care)6

Caring 7 for persons with known, probable or suspected 2009 H1N1 or influenza-like illness

Respirator

Consider temporary reassignment. Respirator





  1. The effectiveness of respirators and facemasks in preventing transmission of 2009 H1N1 (or seasonal influenza) in various settings is not known. Use of a facemask or respirator is likely to be of most benefit if used correctly and consistently when exposed to an ill person.  (Ref. a) MacIntyre CR, et al.  EID 2009;15:233-41. b) Cowling BJ, et al. Non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent household transmission of influenza. The 8th Asia Pacific Congress of Medical Virology, Hong Kong, 26-28 February 2009.)

  2. For the purpose of this document, respirator refers to N95 or any other NIOSH-certified filtering facepiece respirator.

  3. Persons at increased risk of severe illness from influenza (i.e. high-risk persons) include those groups at higher risk for severe illness from seasonal influenza, including:  children younger than 5 years old;  persons aged 65 years or older;  children and adolescents (younger than 18 years) who are receiving long-term aspirin therapy and who might be at risk for experiencing Reye syndrome after influenza virus infection;  pregnant women;  adults and children who have pulmonary, including asthma, cardiovascular, hepatic, hematological, neurologic, neuromuscular, or metabolic disorders, such as diabetes; adults and children who have immunosuppression (including immunosuppression caused by medications or by HIV); and, residents of nursing homes and other chronic-care facilities.

  4. The optimal use of respirators requires fit testing, training and medical clearance. Proper use is recommended to maximize effectiveness. The use of facemasks may be considered as an alternative to respirators, although they are not as effective as respirators in preventing inhalation of small particles, which is one potential route of influenza transmission.  There is limited evidence available to suggest that use of a respirator without fit-testing may still provide better protection than a facemask against inhalation of small particles. Respirators are not recommended for children or persons who have facial hair (see FDA websiteExternal Web Site Icon).

  5. Use of N95 respirators or facemasks generally is not recommended for workers in non-healthcare occupational settings for general work activities.  For specific work activities that involve contact with people who have influenza-like illness (ILI) (fever plus at least either cough or sore throat and possibly other symptoms like runny nose, body aches, headaches, chills, fatigue, vomiting and diarrhea), such as escorting a person with ILI, interviewing a person with ILI, providing assistance to an individual with ILI, the following are recommended: a) workers should try to maintain a distance of 6 feet or more from the person with ILI; b) workers should keep their interactions with the ill person as brief as possible; c) the ill person should be asked to follow good cough etiquette and hand hygiene and to wear a facemask, if able, and one is available; d) workers at increased risk of severe illness from influenza infection (see footnote 3) should avoid people with ILI (possibly by temporary reassignment); and, e) where workers cannot avoid close contact with persons with ILI, some workers may choose to wear a facemask or N95 respirator on a voluntary basis  (See footnote 1). When respirators are used on a voluntary basis in an occupational work setting, requirements for voluntary use of respirators in work sites can be found on the OSHA websiteExternal Web Site Icon.

  6. See case definitions of confirmed, probable, and suspected 2009 influenza A (H1N1). Also see infection control in the health care setting. When respiratory protection is required in an occupational setting, respirators must be used in the context of a comprehensive respiratory protection program as required under OSHA’s Respiratory Protection standard (29 CFR 1910.134). This includes fit testing, medical evaluation and training of the worker.

  7. “Caring” includes all activities that bring a worker into proximity to a patient with known, probable, or suspected 2009 H1N1 or ILI, including both providing direct medical care and support activities like delivering a meal tray or cleaning a patient’s room.

 

Setting

Recommendation

Home (when sharing common spaces with other household members)

Facemask preferred, if available and tolerable, or tissue to cover cough/sneeze

Health care settings (when outside of patient room)

Facemask, if tolerable

Non-health care setting

Facemask preferred, if available and tolerable, or tissue to cover cough/sneeze

Breastfeeding

Facemask preferred, if available and tolerable, or tissue to cover cough/sneeze



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Daliah Wachs, MD, FAAFP is a Board Certified Family Physician. The Dr. Daliah Show , is nationally syndicated M-F from 11:00 am - 2:00 pm and Saturday from Noon-1:00 pm (all central times) at GCN.

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