Friday, 06 April 2018 18:49

Predictions for this year’s hurricane season and how you can prepare

Written by Dr. Daliah Wachs
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June 1st marks the official start of Hurricane season and runs until November 30th.  September is usually the most active month. Hurricanes are categorized by their wind speed as designated as the following:

 

Category I have sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph

Category II have sustained winds of 96 to 110 mph

Category III have sustained winds of 111 to 130 mph

Category IV have sustained winds of 131 to 155 mph

Category V have sustained  winds of over 155 mph.

In a given year, the Atlantic Ocean averages 12 hurricanes with 2 becoming “major” meaning a Category III or greater.  Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was at one point a Category V and when it hit landfall it was a Category 3-4 (depending on the source), tragically killing over 1800 people and causing $108 billion in damage.  The deadliest hurricane to ever hit US soil was the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 in which over 10,000 people died.

According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, The Weather Company and Colorado State University, the 2018 Hurricane season will be above average in activity, with possibly 14 named storms, 7 of which are expected to become hurricanes, 3 of which could become major hurricanes.

2017 was a particularly active hurricane season with three major hurricanes hitting the US.  Dr. Phil Klotzbach, of the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorological Project, stated in 2017, “While the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal, the far North Atlantic remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Negative phases of the AMO tend to be associated with overall less conducive conditions for Atlantic hurricane activity due to higher tropical Atlantic surface pressures, drier middle levels of the atmosphere and increased levels of sinking motion.”

This year he states, “Last season had near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.”  He continues, “If El Niño were to suddenly develop, that would certainly knock down our forecast.”

El Nino is refers to a ocean-atmospheric interaction where sea surface temperatures rise near the equatorial Pacific, causing increase wind shear in the Atlantic equatorial region and has been linked to highly active hurricane seasons.

This year’s names for the 2018 Hurricane Season are the following

Atlantic

Alberto

Beryl

Chris

Debby

Ernesto

Florence

Gordon

Helene

Isaac

Joyce

Kirk

Leslie

Michael

Nadine

Oscar

Patty

Rafael

Sara

Tony

Valerie

William

 

Pacific

Aletta

Bud

Carlotta

Daniel

Emilia

Fabio

Gilma

Hector

Ileana

John

Kristy

Lane

Miriam

Norman

Olivia

Paul

Rosa

Sergio

Tara

Vicente

Willa

Xavier

Yolanda

Zeke

If I was going to predict on names alone, I’d forecast Helene, Isaac and Kirk to be doozies.

Hurricane Kate 300px.jpg

How to prepare for the hurricane season

Preparation means starting early.

Make sure you keep informed of the latest alerts and official recommendations.

Evacuate when told to do so by city officials.

Many people will try to tough it out and unfortunately get walled up in their homes.  So make sure you have adequate water (1 gallon per day/person for at least three days) and 1/4 – 1/2 gallon/water/ per pet, except the fish obviously.

Canned foods, flashlights, medical supply kit, batteries, blankets, cash, medications in water proof containers should be set aside for disasters, and put important papers in waterproof/fireproof casings.

According to ready.gov, its recommended to do the following:

  • Hurricane winds can cause trees and branches to fall, so before hurricane season trim or remove damaged trees and limbs to keep you and your property safe.
  • Secure loose rain gutters and downspouts and clear any clogged areas or debris to prevent water damage to your property.
  • Reduce property damage by retrofitting to secure and reinforce the roof, windows and doors, including the garage doors.
  • Purchase a portable generator or install a generator for use during power outages. Remember to keep generators and other alternate power/heat sources outside, at least 20 feet away from windows and doors and protected from moisture; and NEVER try to power the house wiring by plugging a generator into a wall outlet.
  • Consider building a FEMA safe room or ICC 500 storm shelter designed for protection from high-winds and in locations above flooding levels.  

Always have an emergency plan, practice it with family members, discuss with distantly located relatives how you will notify each other of your safety, and stay tuned to your radio, TV, wireless emergency alerts encase evacuations are ordered.

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Daliah Wachs is a guest contributor to GCN news. Doctor Wachs is an MD,  FAAFP and a Board Certified Family Physician.  The Dr. Daliah Show , is nationally syndicated M-F from 11:00 am - 2:00 pm and Saturday from Noon-1:00 pm (all central times) at GCN.